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Week 5 Notes at the ready ...
| Oct. 6, 2024 |
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Sunday Afternoon’s Game-By-Game Focus: I decided to share my Week 5 notes heading into Sunday … CLE/WAS—Can Cleveland finally move the ball against a porous Commanders D as stoppable force meets movable object? If not, you have to think it’s time for a change. |  John Laghezza |
BAL/CIN—Will the Bengals find an answer for what has to be, without exaggeration, the most dynamic and hard-to-tackle backfield in NFL history? Expect the kitchen sink defensively from Cincy to avoid a 1-4 start.
Our NFL Game Model has a five-star edge on the spread in this game. Which side do you think it is?
BUF/HOU—Can’t wait to watch this matchup between two of the best in the AFC, with potential playoff implications down the road. The pressure is on Buffalo to find answers offensively without Khalil Shakir.
CAR/CHI—Lots to prove for both clubs on Sunday—Carolina’s first true test on defense with Andy Dalton under center, as Caleb Williams must play well at home versus a very gettable Panthers defense.
MIA/NE—Is there a “simulate game” option? What I expected would perform as a boring, yet functional, offense in New England managed by Jacoby Brissett has been anything but. And I’m sorry, as much as I like Mike McDaniel, the way Miami approached their backup QB situation borders on malpractice.
ARI/SF—The weight of this NFC West clash feels undersold for two teams with high expectations but off to disappointing starts at the quarter-pole.
LV/DEN—Someone’s leaving this one 3-2, but they’re going to have to find a way to score to do it. This honestly feels like a replay of last week’s Broncos 10-9 snoozefest against the Jets. Eyes out for progression from Bo Nix and whether or not Brock Bowers can anchor an offense from the TE position.
GB/LAR—LaFleur versus McVay always makes for a fun rewatch from a schematic standpoint, but right now it’s all about Jordan Love elevating himself into the elite QB tier. Also, I’m in awe of how roster depth in Green Bay has paid dividends, losing key players every week without missing a beat.
NYG/SEA—Almost had the popcorn out for Malik Nabers against this Seahawks’ secondary, but alas, the rookie phenom’s out. I’m afraid this tips the scale.
Make sure to check out our team’s Free NFL bets in our Bet Tracker for Week 5!
What’s in today’s newsletter?
Look Into My Crystal Ball
The New York Prop Exchange
WEEK 5 PROPS |  |
Look Into My Crystal Ball🏈🔮—Jerry …
Given my background, it’s no shock my analysis comes replete with trading terminology. It’s so easy to swing opinions to match the last thing we saw, but it takes the battle-hardened bettor to understand most action in life occurs in ebbs and flows. That series of progressions and regressions back to the mean creates rectangular action, not continuation in perpetuity. Perhaps some of you normal people would be familiar with the lay verbiage for knowing an asset’s too cheap or buying the dip. Well, that theory works in reverse, called selling the rip—exactly what we’re doing today.
Much to my chagrin, Washington posted its first positive defensive EPA all season against Arizona last week. Well, long story short, I’m not buying it—even blind squirrels eventually find nuts. This Commanders’ defense is still stone-cold worst in EPA/Dropback (-0.38) and opposer passer rating (123.3).
They’ve also shown to be particularly vulnerable short and over the middle, as pretty clearly evidenced in the passing chart below. It pops on the spreadsheet as well if you’re into that stuff—Washington allows 9.3 receptions for 92.5 yards per game to slot WRs alone.
2024’s been weird enough that Jerry Jeudy became one of the league’s more consistent wideouts on an objectively terrible passing offense and nobody noticed. Each week, the Browns’ WR2 role continues to shift further toward Jeudy. That flippening happened in the slot, as is evident for Elijah Moore’s declining targets in the chart below.
Jeudy’s averaging 5 catches a game over Cleveland’s last three—which I think is the new base rate for an every-down player on a (very) slowly improving team.
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WEEK 5 PROPS |  |
The New York Prop Exchange 🏈🏛️—Zack Attack!
I’ll make this last one quick, it’s a perfect Gretzky—heading where the puck’s going and not where it’s been. It’s no secret in Cincy that at 1-3, the Bengals are feeling early pressure to avoid a huge ditch to dig themselves from. Looking for explosives in the run game, each week presumed backup Chase Brown has earned an increased share of the carry load from Zack Moss.
So why on Earth are we backing Zack Moss? Come on, you know there’s an obvious method to my madness (does Macho Man’s oooooh yeah!). While Brown has usurped some of the base work, it’s almost exclusively on first down, solidifying Moss as the clear-cut, undisputed passing back for the Bengals. Check this out—Chase Brown has logged only five third-down snaps all season!
The Ravens are balling out on offense, which could help two-fold. A push toward a positive game script leans our way, plus the high frequency of two-high coverage run by BAL tends to open up space for RB checkdowns. Since the role shift in Cincinnati’s backfield, Moss has 9 grabs in two games and I don’t see it ending this weekend.
AROUND THE WATERCOOLER |  |
The latest analysis and insights from our merry band of sports betting nerds:
📉 Unders, unders, and more unders. Freedman is quite optimistic about today’s slate.
🏆 Playing NFL DFS today? Your keys to Milly Maker glory.
💰 Don’t finalize your betting slip without using our NFL Game Model to compare our projections to available lines.
📊 Speaking of projections … we have projections for every player on Sunday’s slate, as well as Monday Night Football.
🤑 When they find paydirt … you find a payday.
🔎 Seeing the future? Freedman examines the NFL futures landscape ahead of Week 5.
👀 The Colts QB situation has a massive impact on the betting market. Which QB actually has more value?
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