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🥇 Winner Stays
It's do or die for the four remaining play-in tournament squads
To the victor goes the spoils… as long as spoils include a first-round thumping by the Celtics and Thunder.
In today’s Betting Life newsletter presented by Webex.
NBA Friday: Can the Heat and Pels survive without their biggest stars?
NHL Playoffs: Get ready to learn Connor McDavid, L.A.
Mock Draft 6.0: Landing spots for the top wide receivers.
It’s 4/19. Take it away, Matt LaMarca…
And then there were four. Well, technically, 14 teams have already punched their playoff tickets, but two more will join them on Friday night. Things start with the Bulls traveling to Miami to take on the Heat, followed by a matchup between the Kings and Pelicans in New Orleans.
There were major developments in the first round of the play-in tournament, leaving both home teams vulnerable on Friday. Can either team survive and clinch the final spot in their conference? Let’s dive in.
No team embodies the “got that dog in ‘em” meme more than the Miami Heat. They’re a team full of pit bulls who are ready to attack at a moment's notice. They had no business making it to the NBA Finals last year, but that didn’t stop them from upsetting vastly superior teams like the Bucks and Celtics en route to an Eastern Conference crown.
Of course, there’s a reason for that. No team has adopted the mentality of their superstar more than the Heat. Jimmy Butler is a dog’s dog, and no one in basketball elevates their game by a higher level in the postseason.
But the Heat didn’t just lose a battle to the 76ers on Wednesday; they might’ve lost a war. Butler went down with an MCL injury that will sideline him for Friday’s contest vs. the Bulls and will put their spot in the postseason in serious jeopardy.
The Heat are still favored, but I’m not sure they deserve to be. They did manage to go 13-9 without Butler this season, but that record is a bit deceiving. Only six of those 13 wins came against postseason opponents, and two of those six wins were against a Joel Embiid-less 76ers squad. Overall, their Net Rating decreased by -8.0 points per 100 possessions with Butler off the floor.
The Bulls are coming off a dismantling of the Hawks in their first play-in contest, and they’ll have two of the three best players on the court in DeMar DeRozan and Coby White. I like their chances of pulling off the upset.
The Heat aren’t the only team that suffered a huge injury in their first play-in contest. The Pelicans also saw their franchise player go down, and his absence leaves the team facing an uphill battle on Friday.
It goes without saying that Zion Williamson is important to the Pelicans’ success. He was first on the team in points per game, second in assists and rebounds per game, and third in steals and blocks per game. His absence is going to be felt on both ends of the floor.
The fact that Brandon Ingram is also operating at less than 100% only complicates things. Ingram missed 12 consecutive games before suiting up in the regular season finale, and he was limited to just 25 minutes in their first play-in contest. He shot just 4-12 from the field, so it remains to be seen if he can help pick up the slack from Williamson’s absence.
Meanwhile, the Kings are riding high following their comfortable and potential dynasty-ending win over the Warriors. I’ll lay the single point on the road in this spot vs. a banged-up Pels squad.
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⚾️ A Friday full of action. Best bets for the full MLB slate.
😬 The Kings pulled off a huge comeback in their final game. Their reward? They get to face Connor McDavid again in the first round.
📈 The odds shift for the No. 2 pick on BetMGM. Will it ultimately be Maye or Daniels?
🐎 The Broncos are honing in on another first-round QB. The odds on Nix to Denver keep shrinking.
🔻 The 76ers pulled it out vs. the Heat, but it wasn’t a win for everyone. A meaningless 3-pointer results in a brutal beat for under bettors.
⭐ How’d he do that? Jake Oettinger with one of the best casual saves you’ll ever see.
🔮 Need more Futures bets for the NHL and NBA playoffs? We have them in our FREE bet tracker.
With the draft less than a week away, Matthew Freedman shares his updated mock draft.
Everyone focuses on QBs in mock drafts, but this class is loaded at other positions as well, especially WR.
Right now, here’s where I see all the Round 1 WRs going.
🪶 1.04 (Cardinals): WR Marvin Harrison (Ohio State)
The Cardinals could trade down (several teams might want to move up for a QB), but for now, I’m relying on Matthew Berry, who heard this bit of gossip at the combine: “If Harrison is there at 4 when the Cardinals pick, they are absolutely taking him.”
Harrison is -550 (DraftKings) to be the No. 1 WR … and that number might undersell his true odds.
🐯 1.06 (Giants): WR Malik Nabers (LSU)
The Giants go with a WR in 80% of sharp mocks, and Nabers is a strong option to be the No. 2 WR: He’ll be 21 years old for the entirety of his rookie campaign, and he balled out with 89-1,569-14 receiving last season.
The Giants need pass-catching assistance, and I’m intrigued by Nabers at No. 6 at +155 (FanDuel).
🐻 1.09 (Bears): WR Rome Odunze (Washington)
Odunze had an awesome combine, exhibiting good speed (4.45-second 40-yard dash) and notable agility (6.88-second three-cone drill) with old-school prototypical size (6’3” and 212 lbs.).
In a less-stacked class, he would have a good chance to be the No. 1 WR. At No. 9, he represents great value for the Bears and for bettors at +195 (FanDuel).
I originally bet Odunze No. 9 at +260 (bet365) and logged it in our FREE Fantasy Life Bet Tracker, where you can find all my draft props.
⚡️ 1.23 (Chargers): WR Brian Thomas (LSU)
The Chargers need to find a pass-catching weapon for QB Justin Herbert, and they’re able to do that at No. 23 (while also drafting OL at No. 11) thanks to their trade down from No. 5.
With his college production (68-1,177-17 receiving) and athleticism (4.33-second 40-yard dash at 6’3” and 209 lbs.), Thomas has long-term potential.
Pick via Vikings (projected trade).
💨 1.28 (Bills): WR Adonai Mitchell (Texas)
QB Josh Allen needs a WR.
Enter Mitchell, who catapulted himself into Round 1 with a strong combine (4.34-second 40-yard dash at 6’2” and 205 lbs.).
The Bills are -235 (Caesars) to select a WR with their first pick. (I bet them at +150.)
