Will Josh Allen Be Running For His Life?

Don't Turn Your Back On Him

September 23, 2024

Sept. 23, 2024

PRESENTED BY

Eh, what can you do?: Born and bred in Brooklyn, it’s something I’ve heard from Pop a million times growing up. Woven into the tapestry of everyday conversation, it works in so many ways, encompassing almost any scenario. Simple enough for the everyman, yet strangely profound.

John Laghezza

Anyone wondering what in tarnation I’m ranting on about may have been busy yesterday—so I’ll catch you up. As hard as we may focus on detail, sometimes things fall through the cracks. I recommended a certain reception prop to a ton of wonderful readers, Cleveland’s TE Jordan Akins Over 2.5 Receptions. Sounds perfectly cromulent, right, so what’s wrong with that? Honestly, I have no idea how it happened, but I laid out my best well-thought-out argument, replete with defensive-based charts … for the wrong team. 

And if you know anything about me, I freaked out when alerted. Now, I don’t want to give some bleeding-heart apology as much as you don’t want to hear one. We’re sports bettors, we’re tough. No matter how bad it stung, we make mistakes, acknowledge them, and move on. So when you know you gave your all to something, let the rare mishaps roll like water off a duck’s back. 

Enough of that, there’s no time to waste looking backward, we have work to do. Oh, and I almost forgot the best part—Akins cleared his catch prop easily! Such is life …

After tonight, NFL Week 4 is here. Compare the best prices across all major sportsbooks using our free NFL betting odds table!

What else is in today’s newsletter?

  • Running Against The Wind

  • The New York Prop Exchange

NFL BETTING

Running Against The Wind 🏃🏽‍♂️🌪️🏈 —Don’t Turn Your Back On Josh Allen

Nothing like letting it ride on big players in big spots with the entire nation’s undivided attention. Josh Allen spent all week circling his wagons preparing to host Trevor Lawrence and welcome the winless Jaguars on Monday Night. 

There was no shortage of talking heads and internet blowhards (ahem) with their shovels out for the Buffalo offense before the season even started. First, I didn’t love the offense down the stretch after the playcalling change. Then, creating such a massive target void by losing the talent of Stefon Diggs and Gabe Davis (plus the continuity they’d built) would have to affect the offense, right? Apparently, no one told Allen—Buffalo is second in both points scored and offensive EPA/Play.

Well, with the undefeated Bills seemingly scoring at will, Allen surely must be passing like crazy, right? Nope, not so fast. It doesn’t take a professional technical analyst to tell you the passing trend is heading in the wrong direction.

Since the Bills already rank bottom 10 in both hurries allowed per game and pressure rate, Allen has been more willing than ever to tuck and run (below).

Why is this the No. 1 thing my hairy eyeball is fixed upon? Man coverage creates opportunities for dual-threat QBs, who can take off as soon as they see the backs of DBs’ jerseys when reading downfield. And Jacksonville plays man at what feels like an order of magnitude beyond anyone else in the league. It’s remarkable really.

Though Allen didn’t run much last week, the Bills controlled the game against Miami throughout (Get well, Tua!), and I’m just writing it off to circumstance. We know the thesis of this case remains predicated on game script. Allen has still averaged just over 31 rushing yards/game going back to 2023 (below) and we could see him take off 10 times.

THE LADDER: 

  • Josh Allen Over 30.5 Rushing Yards (-115) MGM 0.75u

  • Josh Allen Over 49.5 Rushing Yards (+350) MGM 0.25u

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MLB BETTING

The New York Prop Exchange ⚾️🏛️—Desert Heat

Just four games on tonight’s slate marks our first real signal the 2024 MLB regular season is coming to a close. We covered the importance of avoiding the temptation of betting on teams, and more specifically managers who are mathematically eliminated. It’s simply too variant to bet on without the need to win inspiring rational coaching decisions.

This point only makes more sense when you consider the comparable prices available on teams competing directly against those that aren’t. Anyway, sorry, these MLB hits are supposed to be quick—I know I’ll miss them when they’re gone.

That same line of thinking takes us to the desert where the Diamondbacks host Hayden Birdsong and the San Francisco Treats. Arizona is holding the pole position as part of a three-team race with the Mets and Braves for the last two NL Wild Card spots—point being, it’s all hands on deck these last six games. Arizona will roll out veteran southpaw Eduardo Rodriguez, whose 5.09 ERA, 1.45 WHIP combo doesn’t quite churn up the warm and fuzzies. 

However, we need to stay focused on where the puck's going, not where it’s been. It’s important to note Rodriguez not only missed the first four months of the season with a bad shoulder, he didn’t make a single rehab start in the minors. Whenever that’s the case, I’m granting a grace period as a mock Spring Training with a close eye on fastball velocity. For E-Rod, we need him right at or around 92 MPH, which took a bit but we did finally get there (below).

E-Rod’s on a two-game heater, striking out 18 batters across 11.2 IP, good for an insane 30% K-BB. Most importantly, he threw 94 pitches his last time out. The Giants not only have their eye on local October tee times but also strike out at the highest clip in MLB vs LHP the last 30 days (below). I’m expecting E-Rod to carve them up in a crucial spot.

THE BET: Eduardo Rodriguez +7 Strikeouts (+140) DKSB 0.5u

AROUND THE WATERCOOLER

The latest analysis and insights from our merry band of sports betting nerds:

👀 How’d we do? Claudia, Freedman, and LaMarca see how their Week 3 picks did and look ahead to Week 4.

🏈 🏈 It’s a Monday Night Football doubleheader, and Matt LaMarca delivers his best bets for both games.

😭 My Survivor hopes and dreams looked good until the 4th quarter.

SHARP HUNTER

Sharps Go Against Trend: Commanders at Bengals

As we wrap up the NFL's Week 3, underdogs continue to cover … and win outright. 

How about this? Underdogs of 6 or more points are now 11-1 ATS … and 7-5 SU! If you've been betting on the big dogs, you're printing. 

We have another big favorite as part of a Monday Night Football doubleheader with the Bengals 7-point home favorites against the Commanders. 

We're showing a One-Bag Sharp Score on the Bengals -7 as of Sunday night. 

It's scary going against this dog trend to start the season, but I'm with the Sharps here. 

The Commanders are ranked dead last in DVOA defense to start the season—32 of 32. They have been BAD. 

This is a get-right spot for Joe Burrow and the Bengals offense—it looks like Burrow will have Ja’Marr Chase and Tee Higgins healthy for the first time all season. Add to that a Washington OL that has been ranked near the bottom of the league for two weeks—yeah this is a good spot for Cincy. 

The Sharps are willing to lay the points with the Bengals and I'm with them. We'll bet against the big underdog on Monday Night. 

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