Where To Start Your Research

Directly from the book ...

October 09, 2024

Oct. 9, 2024
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Total Recall: Since even I take days off, Wednesday marks square one to set our foundation for the NFL week ahead.  The best place to start the grind comes directly from the books themselves. Remember, the house can’t help but tip its hand by posting live team totals.

John Laghezza

For whatever reason, totals can be hard to wrangle. In my never-ending quest to make this newsletter an irreplaceable part of your daily routine, I charted all of this weekend’s baseline (-110) team totals. So allow me to do some dirty work and highlight the outliers so you won’t have to.

Quick Thoughts: The Ravens' offense played great again, earning that high total, there’s no doubt about it. But don’t look now, Joe Whitt Jr.’s habitually leaky WAS defense has only allowed 27 total points in two weeks. Mix in the sheer amount of rushes on both sides—and you can see how getting over 30 could be a tall order for Baltimore.

On the downside of things, there’s New England. I’d normally be inclined to bet the over on any TT O15.5 at even money blind, but this squad’s bordering on toxic. They’re dead last in yards per play—and the Patriots’ net yard differential is more than 20% worse than the field. Yikes.

You can also use our NFL Game Betting Model to identify the biggest edges on game totals, spreads, and moneylines!

What else is in today’s newsletter?

  1. Wednesday Charts

  2. The New York Prop Exchange

NFL CHARTS

Wednesday Charts🧠📊— Team Expected Points Added Per Play

Each week I’ll be presenting the league through the lens of a single image. While no one picture or stat can truly shoulder such a load, learning to take the temperature of each team’s offensive and defensive expected points added (EPA) will sharpen your game—this per-play metric that defines the value of each play by the effect it has on the offense's likelihood to score.

It provides an analytically dense, perspective-laden snapshot that is absolutely worth familiarizing yourself with. 

NOTE: The cross is league average. Also, positive EPA is ideal on both sides of the ball—so in this specific case below, the closer to the upper-right corner, the better a team’s combined performance in both phases.

THE GOOD:

MIN—All respect to Kevin O’Connell and the serious flippening underway in Minnesota. Not only have the Vikings continued to dominate across continents as others sputter—it’s the first time the top team is defense-first … and they’re on the verge of getting back T.J. Hockenson.

BUF—Two tough losses in a row dragged the Bills back toward the pack as injuries to their skill positions continued piling up. That said, BAL and HOU are tough competition—they top most if not all the major rankings, and Buffalo’s luck should change with the schedule.

THE BAD:

CAR—The Panthers’ ascent from Week 1’s ugly category ran out of steam in a hurry against the Bears. Carolina’s now surrendered 80 points in two weeks—and Andy Dalton started showing signs of turning back into a pumpkin on Sunday. I’m tempering any and all expectations.

MIA—Please Tua, get well soon! In the last month, somehow Mike McDaniels’ Dolphins have inexplicably scored forty total points. Yes, forty … like one less than Baltimore scored Sunday. The defense plays hard, but I have baseball teams modeled to score higher than the Fins some days.

Looking to get a head start on your Week 6 NFL betting? Our experts have already started to load plays in our Free NFL Bets tracker!

THE UGLY:

CLE—No memes in this section but if there were, it’s the trainer from Rocky IV “Duke” Evers throwing in the bloody towel too late to save Apollo Creed. Hide your wife, hide your kids—watching the Browns is harmful to viewers. Through five games, Cleveland’s gaining more than 11% fewer yards per play than the field—including those teams missing QBs. Yikes.

NE—The Pats’ fourth straight loss apparently sparked a brushfire among New England’s brain trust. The drumbeats grow stronger as rumors circulate among insiders that Drake Maye will start Sunday. I’ll wipe the slate clean if he gets the nod but let’s just say I’m keeping a spot here warm for them at the bottom.

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AROUND THE WATERCOOLER

The latest analysis and insights from our merry band of sports betting nerds:

⛳️ The PGA TOUR returns tomorrow … best bets for the Black Desert Championship.

📊 Movers and Shakers after Week 6 … Updated College Football Power Rankings.

👀 Player projections for the upcoming week are live … where’s the betting value?

😭 I know we’re leaving the past in the past … but these were some BAD beats.

📉 A star WR hits Injured Reserve … big blow for the Texans.

🚀 The Jayden Daniels effect … this kid is special.

MLB PROPS

The New York Prop Exchange⚾️🏛️—Oh Schmidt!

Let the record state I’m no homer—this dyed-in-the-wool Yankees fan bet against his team in Game 2 (which we won!). Kansas City heads home after knotting up the series at 1, where Seth Lugo will take the mound to host Clarke Schmidt and the Bombers. Every day we seem to lose another page from the betting menu so it’s important not to press. 

Keep in mind, pitching props become increasingly hard to nail down once the postseason rolls around. Standard workloads go flying out the window with the increased sense of urgency— a quick hook’s always on the table. 

I mention it because books hung an unusually low O13.5 outs recorded, something Schmidt did 13 times in a row down the stretch until breaking that streak in his regular-season finale. The same goes for his strikeout prop at O3.5—he eclipsed that in 15 of 16 GS, including all rehab starts. Generally, these would be obvious spots to buy the dip, but I’m worried playoff management could make them an exception.

So just as I was about to whip out my favorite building block, “no bet’s better than a bad bet” (check it out here) I stumbled on a couple of DraftKings “race” offers that I marked as +EV which also address my workload concerns. 

Schmidt boasts a pretty clear strikeout edge over Lugo, leading by multiple ticks in K%, SwStrk%, CSW%, and Whiff%. Not to get too deep in the weeds, but Schmidt throttled his sinker (a bad pitch) for more curves (a very good pitch). That makes three separate offerings with a 30%+ Whiff he can comfortably throw to either-handed hitter.

Lugo, on the other hand, pitches to a 90%+ zone-contact rate—and has three starts this year of +5.1 IP with two Ks or fewer.

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