What to Watch For in College Football Week 4

Conference play begins in earnest

September 21, 2024

Sept. 21, 2024

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Week 4 represents a bit of a changing of the guard in the College Football season. We’re basically done with the non-conference matchups, which means we can get into the meat and potatoes of the season.

Of course, not all conferences are created equally, and that’s especially true after the most recent round of alignment. This is very much a case of “haves” and “have-nots.”

Matt LaMarca

We can argue about whether or not that’s good for the long-term health of the college game, but it’s going to create must-see matchups basically every week.

Just look at Week 4. We have three different ranked matchups featuring three different conferences: USC at Michigan in the Big 10, Utah at Oklahoma State in the Big 12, and Tennessee at Oklahoma in the SEC. These all feel like mini-playoff games, and we’re just four weeks into the season!

It’s truly the best thing about college football. You can lose 60 games in baseball and still be one of the best teams in the league. But if you want to get a chance to win the title in college football, you need to be nearly perfect.

Let’s dive into these three games—and one bonus matchup—to get you primed for Week 4.

What else is in today’s newsletter?

  1. The start of conference play headlines an exciting group of Week 4 CFB matchups

  2. Thor Nystrom details his favorite wagers for Saturday’s college slate

  3. Watercooler

CFB WEEK 4

The Casual Fan’s Guide to College Football Week 4

by Matt LaMarca

USC (-4.5) at Michigan—3:30 p.m. ET on CBS

Michigan already has one loss this season, so losing at home to the Trojans would make its chances at back-to-back National Championships extremely unlikely. The Wolverines still have games against Oregon and Ohio State, so they need to give themselves a little bit of breathing room.

The big story here involves Michigan making a change at quarterback. Junior Alex Orji will make the first start of his career after the Wolverines offense fell flat on its face in the first three weeks. Davis Warren threw a CFB-high 6 interceptions over that stretch, so Orji has a pretty low bar to clear. He wasn’t considered a can’t-miss prospect coming out of high school, but he brings outstanding athleticism to the position.

On the other side, USC enters this game at 2-0 after beating LSU and Utah State to start the year. The Trojans defense looks markedly improved from last year’s squad, and they have a very favorable schedule moving forward. They’ve managed to avoid Oregon and Ohio State this season, and their toughest remaining matchups are all at home (Penn State, Nebraska, and Notre Dame). If they can get past the Wolverines in Ann Arbor, they have a real shot of making the playoffs. I like their odds to make the tournament at +130.

Utah (-1.0) at Oklahoma State—4:00 p.m. ET on Fox

Both of these teams are currently undefeated, and with Texas and Oklahoma now in the SEC, the coast is clear for both of these squads to win the Big 12. Utah, Oklahoma State, and Kansas State are the clear top contenders, so whoever wins this matchup will have a big leg up early.

For Utah, star quarterback Cam Rising is tentatively expected to play after injuring his hand in a win over Baylor. Rising missed all of last year while recovering from an injury, but when he’s been on the field, the Utes have been tough to beat. They won the Pac-12 Championship in 2021 and 2022 with Rising at the helm, so sleep on them at your own risk.

While Rising is in his fifth year at Utah, he has nothing on Oklahoma State QB Alan Bowman. He’s in his seventh year of eligibility, and these two quarterbacks are a combined 49 years old. Bowman has had an excellent start to what should be his final season, passing for 8 touchdowns and averaging 322 yards per game.

With Ollie Gordon still in the backfield—arguably the best running back in college football—the Cowboys have a very dangerous offense. This should be a good one.

Tennessee (-7.0) at Oklahoma—7:30 p.m. ET on ABC

All aboard the Nico Iamaleava bandwagon. He continues to steamroll everything in his path, and he ranks eighth among quarterbacks in yards per attempt. As a whole, the Volunteers offense has averaged 8.1 yards per play, tied for the fourth-best mark in the nation.

The Sooners haven’t been nearly as impressive, but they’re still sitting at a perfect 3-0 to start the year. The SEC is an absolute gauntlet, with six teams currently ranked in the top seven of the ESPN College Football poll. That includes Tennessee, so if Oklahoma can take care of business, the Sooner will vault themselves into the top 10 of the standings.

That said, I just can’t see that happening. I’m all about this Tennessee squad, which hasn’t even been forced to break a sweat this season. Unless Oklahoma plays far better than it has to date, I think the Vols roll again.

Bonus: San Jose State at Washington State—10 p.m. ET on CW

Who doesn’t love a little West Coast football to wrap up a Saturday night? The Cougars are coming off back-to-back upsets over Texas Tech and Washington, and John Mateer has been one of the best dual-threat quarterbacks in the country. He’s already thrown for 712 passing yards and 7 scores, and he’s added 314 yards and 4 scores on the ground. If you have yet to check him out, this is a great opportunity to do so.

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Norman, Oklahoma, answers the call to host College GameDay in week 4!

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CFB BETS

Best Bets for College Football Week 4

by Thor Nystrom

Below is one of my best bets for this weekend in College Football Week 4, which is a mix of picks on the spread and player props.

Michigan Vs. USC Player Prop Pick

Michigan RB Donovan Edwards: 10.5 Receiving Yards (Vs. USC)

This one might seem odd at first glance in that Edwards has 4 catches for 13 yards and a TD through the first 3 games. 

But we’re expecting Michigan QB Alex Orji, who takes over for the benched Davis Warren, to be risk-averse through the air, with safe passes close to the line of scrimmage. And with Michigan TE Colston Loveland questionable with an upper-body injury, Edwards’ targets could be on the rise in this get-the-ball-out-quickly-and-safely passing environment. 

Any targets are good targets against a USC pass defense that ranks No. 128 in success rate and No. 130 in completion rate allowed.

The pick: RB Edwards Over 10.5 Receiving Yards

AROUND THE WATERCOOLER

The latest analysis and insights from our merry band of sports betting nerds:

☕️ Rise and grind. The Week 4 College Football Pregame Show, featuring Thor Nystrom, Coach Gene Clemons, and Eric Froton, kicks off Saturday at 10 a.m. ET.

👀 Death. Taxes. Freedman betting on the Chargers. He breaks down all his favorite bets for the NFL Week 3 slate.

🐶 Looking for Underdog and PrizePicks plays? Geoff Ulrich has you covered.

🏈 Aaron Rodgers hit Garrett Wilson for his 480th career touchdown pass on Thursday Night Football. It made a bit of history.

🔮 If you’re on the Raiders this weekend, you’re not alone. The most popular NFL bets for Week 3.

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