Week 10 Afternoon Blitz

Edges to exploit for the late slate ...

November 10, 2024

 

Nov. 10, 2024
PRESENTED BY

NFL Blitz, Afternoon Delight: Each Sunday, I crack open my marble notebook to share my personal hand notes and leans to help you finalize your betting ticket for this lovely Week 10 afternoon slate.

John Laghezza

Vikings (6-2) at Jaguars (2-7): Have to think Kevin O'Connell breathed a huge sigh of relief seeing the Jags up next on the schedule. Despite being (6-2), today’s NFL is all about trajectory and the Vikings’ arrow started pointing down after losing two straight off the bye. Compound that skid with the loss of all-world OT Christian Darrisaw and you can see where things spin out of control quickly. MIN assuaged initial fears with a 400-plus-yard output against the Colts (cough, who stink, cough) so I’m sold the problem is fixed for good. I’m watching to see if MIN can keep it up in a smash spot against an objectively bad Jaguar defense with Mac Jones under center. LEAN: MIN -6.5 (-115)

Patriots (2-7) at Bears (4-4): Scouts everywhere circled today’s tilt between potential future franchise QBs Drake Maye and Caleb Williams months ago. Not much else going on for the two-win Patriots, who have scored over 21 points only once this season. They’ll have their hands full against Chicago’s front seven, one of the best in terms of EPA and sack rate. The last-place Bears dropped two straight on the road off the bye, now determined to get back over .500 and keep any postseason dreams alive. I can’t see the Pats hanging enough points or shoring up the league’s worst run defense since Week 4 to get the job done. LEAN: CHI -5.5 (-120)

Titans (2-6) at Chargers (5-3): I can’t draw if my life depended on it, so I doodled the pinned-open-eyeballs scene from Clockwork Orange to the best of my ability. I cannot watch the Titans offense, responsible for losing three of their last four without getting to 21 points once. Woof.  Injuries continue piling up for the Titan defense, which should be their saving grace, now allowing 30-plus points per game over four weeks since the bye. They’ll face a Chargers offense starting to hit its groove, winning three of four since the bye—and perhaps more importantly racking up 23 or more points in each of the wins. Still, far from explosive, Jim Harbaugh and Justin Herbert continue their mind-meld into a cohesive and viable offensive unit. The Bolts appear as the superior team on paper, but a single squint at the game log raises questions of competitiveness. Wins against subpar LV, CAR, DEN, NO, and CLE make today’s matchup a clear inflection point for LAC. LEAN: Under 40 (-125)

Eagles (6-2) at Cowboys (3-5): What should’ve been this weekend’s marquee matchup instead sets up Dallas like lambs to slaughter. Veteran shot-caller Dak Prescott’s bum hamstring will sideline him for the rest of the season, vaulting career backup Cooper Rush into a prominent role under suboptimal circumstances. Conversely, Philly’s at full strength, playing as though untouchable in four straight wins off the bye with a nearly two-touchdown point differential in that span. There’s one line every week that baffles me … LEAN: PHI -7 (-112)

Jets (3-6) at Cardinals (5-4): By law, Jets fans shouldn’t have to cover their own team. Realistic pessimism sounds like an Eeyore-style “woe is me” while any shred of optimism seems destined for a date with disaster. Five straight losses helped me disconnect emotionally—except every time I try to get out, they drag me back in. The Jets beat a quality (though hobbled) Texans squad and now we Gang Greeners can’t help but wonder if the offense finally gelled. NYJ heads to the desert to face the Cardinals, who cannot be overlooked in their own right. Winners of three in a row, Kyler Murray steered the Redbirds back on track, showing they can get into the end zone against tough defenses like the Chargers or Bears. I still have my doubts surrounding the defense, which I think lacks the ability to stop New York’s superstars, making the difference for me this afternoon. LEAN: NYJ ML (-125)

Lions (7-1) at Texans (6-3): Rejoice! Nothing caps off seven hours of commercial-free football like a proper Sunday night Flex game. It’s business as usual for the best team in the NFL—Detroit has won six consecutive contests, topping Wednesday’s EPA charts yet again. The only thing I’m focused on besides how much bourbon is left in my glass is my boy Nico Collins’ status. For the sake of all that is must-watch TV, please let him play. LEAN: UP AGAINST THE WALL, WITH MONEY SAFELY IN MY WALLET

Hope you enjoyed my NFL Blitz … and oh yeah, we’ve hit an unbelievable 14 straight NFL bets WOW!

Make sure to check out our NFL Odds Pages. You can also use our NFL Game Betting Model to identify the biggest edges on game totals, spreads, and moneylines!

What else is in today’s newsletter?

  • Look Into My Crystal Ball: Tipton’s Brisk, Baby

  • The New York Prop Exchange: Easy As 1, 2, 3 … CMC

  • Sharp Hunter: The Sharps Are Backing An Under

NFL BETTING

Look Into My Crystal Ball🏈🔮—Tipton’s Brisk, Baby!

Unironically betting on New Orleans props despite the Saints not marching to a win since mid-September? Well, danger’s my middle name baby. In our latest version of “the ball has to go somewhere”, I present to you a 5-foot-9 Undrafted Free Agent from Yale, Mason Tipton. Credit where it’s due, the young man’s a burner—a 4.33 40-yard dash lands him in the 99th percentile at the position. Hopefully, that in itself is enough because this cheese stands alone.

What do I mean? Injuries derailed Rashid Shaheed, Bub Means, and Cedrick Wilson when a rather nasty concussion landed star WR Chris Olave on the IR—leaving a total of (drumroll) one catch and one carry for a measly 6 yards on the active roster outside of Tipton. Yikes.

Primarily an afterthought in Klint Kubiak’s scheme, Tipton actually didn’t shrink in his first primary role (6-45-0) back in Week 7 (the other game Olave missed). He led all pass catchers with 9 targets and a team-leading 122 air yards, more than double anyone else—so at least we know the Saints aren’t afraid to dial up Tipton’s number.

So regardless of competition (and Atlanta’s dead last in completions allowed the last month, anyhow), riddle me this. Why is the only wide receiver on a professional team with a 21-plus-point implied team total at o3.5 receptions listed at only a 55.5% implied probability (-125)? 

Beats me but at least our aggregate projections finally agree with me (Yay! Don’t tell Freedman I said he’s a tough customer)

That’s brisk, baby …

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NFL BETTING

The New York Prop Exchange🏈🏛️—Easy As 1, 2, 3 … CMC

I’m pushing up against my digital real estate limit, so this one’s as easy as can be. And just to show you I’m not a hard-hearted man, that it’s not all dollars and cents—this analysis stays (mostly) devoid of the spreadsheet.

I’m tired of landing in the leaves trying to kick Lucy’s football. It’s high time to finally call BS (!) on Kyle Shanahan’s fraudulent injury-reporting practices. I’ve gotten juked more than once this season by the SF brass. From the initial blindside in the CMC announcement to the Deebo flu game, enough is enough. I’m tired of getting trolled—in case you didn’t see it, the Niners named Jordan Mason the starter. Stop.

I cannot envision a world where McCaffrey misses half the season to travel halfway around the world for treatment, rehabs, and logs full practices just to play second fiddle in a critical spot.

And oh yeah, the in-depth analysis you came for. Christian McCaffrey is freaking awesome at American football! He’s averaging just a hair under 120 scrimmage yards per game (!) in his 27-game sample since joining San Francisco—25 yards over today's line.

Christian McCaffrey at 92 scrimmage yards in this economy? I’m calling that bluff.

AROUND THE WATERCOOLER

The latest analysis and insights from our merry band of sports betting nerds:

🔮 Five props for a profitable Sunday. All aboard the Giants new RB1.

🏆 Need an NFL DFS fix? We’ve got you covered.

💰 Before you confirm your bet, confirm it with our NFL Game Model.

🤑 The players are paid to score, so why can’t you be? … Week 10 Anytime TDs.

SHARP HUNTER

The Sharps Are Going Under In LAC vs. TEN

Four teams find themselves on the bye this week, so we have one of the smaller schedules of the year in Week 10 of the NFL season.

Thankfully, the sharps we’re tracking at Sharp Hunter have plenty of ideas for Sunday. 

One of those is the total in Chargers vs. Titans—you can still find a 39 out there in the betting streets if you look hard enough. 

Our sharps want to play the under here—and we can see that reflected in a Two-Bag Sharp Score. Games at Sharp Hunter can show as low as a No-Bag score and as high as a Three-Bag Score. 

So yeah, Two-Baggers are plays the sharps like …

I am betting with the sharps on this one. 

First, the stats. In neutral-pace situations, the Chargers are the slowest team in the NFL per FTN’s snaps/sec stat. The Titans are just a tick faster, clocking in as the third-slowest team in the NFL in those same situations.

Both teams have good defenses to slow each other down—DVOA ranks the Chargers No. 6 and Titans No. 9. Nice. So we get two slow offenses going against two good defenses.

Now, the trends. 

The Chargers are 7-1 to the under this season—and their games are going under by almost 8 points per game. Even going back to last season, the under has been strong in LAC games—19-6—making them the best under team in the NFL during that time. 

We have mentioned this before in this space, but LAC QB Justin Herbert has turned into an under quarterback. Over the last 19 games, the under is 17-2 in his stars  

On the other side, Will Levis is back for Tennessee. Levis has been bad and his 26.8 QBR (30th) paints the picture perfectly. 

Good stats and good trends + the sharps at Sharp Hunter on board = an under to hammer (responsibly) on Sunday.

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