What else is in today’s newsletter?

1. Look Into My Crystal Ball

2. The New York Prop Exchange

3. Watercooler: Diving into the AFC South

Look Into My Crystal Ball 🔮 — Polishing Dust

I owe newly minted Texan Joe Mixon an apology for kneeling to my priors without doing the necessary investigating. Maybe it’s because I rostered him in fantasy football two years ago when he failed to outplay Samaje Perine, underwhelming down the stretch. One thing did stick with me, though—our relationship was over. Then, Mixon and his 4.0 yards per carry bored the daylights out of us again in Cincinnati last season, further cementing those same priors.

Well, the Texans saw potential in an above-average explosive play rate and clearly disagreed. Houston backed up the Brink’s truck to the Mixon residence, giving him 8.5 million reasons to steady a backfield in one of the league’s truly ascendant offenses. Four yards and several dust clouds later, Mixon’s shown the most important (and perhaps most difficult) ability in pro football—availability. Since 2021, the 28-year-old former Sooner ranks fourth in overall touches (913), first in goal-to-go carries (74), and third in rushing TDs (29).

So why is Mixon’s TD prop at 5.5 despite averaging more than +0.50 rushing TDs per game across an entire career?

I’m not sure, but I’m also not waiting around to miss the boat.

He’s back at Texans practice and, by all reasonable accounts, projecting to at least step into the ~50% touch role voided by Devin Singletary. Houston’s also been vocal about last year’s struggles punching it in from short, as incumbent Dameon Pierce couldn't have been much worse in those situations—11 goal-to-go rushes, 3 total yards, 2 TDs. Not great, Bob.

Scoring is vulnerable to variance and admittedly wonky, plus injuries hang like the Sword of Damocles over every prop bet —but if the Texans level up in the way I think they can, this prop could be in the bag before Halloween.

THE BET: Joe Mixon Over 5.5 Touchdowns (-140)

Play Circa Survivor for Your Chance to WIN $10 Million!

That's right—simply pick ONE winning team every week, no repeats, and win your share of the $10 million guaranteed prize pool. Play the biggest Survivor game in the country THIS year.

How It Works:

1. One Trip to Las Vegas: Schedule your in-person registration with us at Circa Sportsbook before the NFL season starts.

2. Make Weekly Picks Online: Log in to the Winners Circle Proxy website and select your team each week.

3. We Submit for You: We handle the official submission of your picks from Nevada.

Survive and Win:

• The last remaining entry wins the entire survivor pool: $10 Million guaranteed!

Why Choose Winners Circle Proxy?

• Trusted Expertise: Now in our ninth year, providing reliable proxy services to top contest players, including the 2023 Survivor and Million contest winners.

• Convenience: No need to be in Nevada each week—we’ve got you covered!

Put your football knowledge to the test and win! Get in the game today at WinnersCircleProxy.com

The New York Prop Exchange ⚾️🏛️ — Give Him The Heater

Sometimes the same nonstop churning that turns the public off to baseball betting is precisely the thing providing an edge to degenerate professionals. Let’s be honest—it takes a special kind of crazy to stay fully prepped on everything in MLB seven days a week for six months straight (takes a bow).

That said, there is an available edge when it comes to lesser-known assets that the normies have never heard of. Let’s take a quick look at Grant Holmes for example (who?)—Atlanta’s 28-year-old late-blossoming rookie.

After posting a very lackluster 4.45 ERA, 1.43 WHIP, and 14.2% K-BB across an entire decade shuffling around the minors, something finally clicked down in the dirty-dirty.

Beginning in a relieving role, Holmes eventually forced his way into the starting rotation of a competitive ballclub—and he’s been flashing top-tier strikeout stuff since. Ignore the season ERA (Holmes had a blowup at Coors Field, who cares?). His curveball/slider combo is downright filthy and Holmes looks like a legitimate strikeout machine. The underlying disciplinary metrics since the promotion are eye-popping—71.6% Strike, 25.0% K-BB, 16.8% Swinging Strike, 34.0% CSW, and 31.5% Whiff. WOW.

Holmes faces the Giants, who are … not good. The San Francisco Treats are batting below the Mendoza Line as a squad versus righties over the last two weeks, with well-below-average approach metrics across the board this month (25.8% K, 12.8% Swinging Strike, 80.9% Zone-Contact).

Holmes even achieved a full workload in his last start, throwing 97 pitches which should alleviate pitch count concerns and clear the runway for an easy cash tonight.

THE BET: Grant Holmes Over 5.5 Strikeouts (-110)

The latest analysis and insights from our merry band of sports betting nerds:

🔥 Can C.J. Stroud do it again? Best bets for the AFC South for 2024.

🤝 Your keys to winning $10 million. Freedman walks you through the 2024 Circa Survivor contest.

🚀 Betting on Offensive Player of the Year? Breece Hall offers value.

⛳️ Nothing gets the juices flowing like a 45-1 longshot. Best bets for the FedEx St. Jude Championship.

Keep the edge in your league with our basic Tier 1 package. Or become merciless with our advanced Tier 2 package. Email subscribers get a 10% discount with code FAMILY