What to Watch For in College Football Week 3

Can Oregon State upset its in-state rivals?

September 14, 2024

Sept. 14, 2024

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In last week’s “Casual Fan’s Guide to College Football,” I focused on some passers who would likely be playing on Sunday. That included Quinn Ewers (Texas), Nico Iamaleava (Tennessee), Shedeur Sanders (Colorado), and Dylan Raiola (Nebraska). Overall, it was a bit of a mixed bag.

I’m feeling a little bit like Clint Eastwood today, so let’s break down the good, the bad, and the ugly from that quartet.

Matt LaMarca

The Good: Nico Iamaleava

He’s now played 3 college games, and he’s won them by a combined score of 155-13. Hard to do much better than that.

The Bad: Shedeur Sanders

Things couldn’t have gone much worse for Sanders on Saturday. Not only did his team lose, but he left the sidelines early and threw his offensive linemen under the bus during a press conference. I’m sure NFL GMs won’t hold that against him come draft time.

The Ugly: Dylan Raiola

This has nothing to do with his game and everything to do with the fact that he’s trying to steal Patrick Mahomes’ identity. It’s just kinda weird, man. I get wanting to play like Mahomes, but this man has copied everything about him. Brittney Mahomes better watch her back.

What does Week 3 have in store for us? Unfortunately, there are no matchups between ranked opponents on Saturday. The only ranked matchup in Week 3 took place on Friday, so we’ll have to focus on something else instead.

However, one of the best parts about college football is the rivalries, and we’ve got a couple of good ones to choose from. Let’s dive in.

Before you bet on Week 3’s College Football slate, be sure to lock in the best prices across sportsbooks with our College Football Odds table and our CFB Prop Finder!

What else is in today’s newsletter?

  1. The three most must-see games for College Football Week 3

  2. Thor Nystrom highlights his favorite CFB wagers for Saturday’s slate

  3. Watercooler: The fastest 90 minutes in CFB handicapping

CFB WEEK 3

The Casual Fan’s Guide to College Football Week 3

by Matt LaMarca

LSU (-6.0) at South Carolina—Noon ET on ABC

This isn’t a rivalry in the truest definition of the word, but every game feels like a rivalry in the uber-competitive SEC.

LSU already has one loss on the season after dropping its opening contest vs. USC, and the Tigers can’t afford too many more defeats if they want to stay relevant in the playoff picture. Meanwhile, South Carolina has started the year 2-0, including an upset win over Kentucky last week. The Wildcats were favored by nearly double figures at home, but South Carolina ended up winning by 25 points.

As a result, this could be a tougher test than originally anticipated. The oddsmakers seem to agree, with LSU dropping from -9.0 at opening to -6.0 currently.

The good news for the Tigers is that Garrett Nussmeier is off to a strong start. Replacing a Heisman Trophy winner isn’t easy, but Nussmeier leads the SEC in completions (57) and touchdown passes (8) through the first two weeks. He probably won’t make LSU fans forget Jayden Daniels, but he’s more than held his own.

Oregon (-16.5) at Oregon State—3:30 p.m. ET on Fox

This would’ve been an end-of-season game in previous years, but the dismantling of the Pac-12 as we know it has caused a bit of chaos. Oregon has dominated this rivalry historically, winning 13 of the past 16 matchups, but Oregon State has battled back a bit recently. The Beavers have won two of the past four meetings, though Oregon managed to win by 24 points in Corvallis last season.

They’ll be back on Oregon State’s campus for the second straight season, but the Beavers are not expected to be as competitive this year. They were the No. 16 team in the nation when these teams met last season, but they’re currently unranked despite a 2-0 start.

Still, rivalry games are always ripe for an upset, and Oregon has looked vulnerable in its first two games. The Beavers have failed to cover in either matchup, winning by 10 points vs. an FCS school and 3 points against Boise State. Both of those games have come at home, so this will be their toughest test to date.

Getting to star quarterback Dylan Gabriel would be a good blueprint for the Beavers. Gabriel has been sacked 7 times through the first two weeks, but he’s been lethal when kept upright. He’s completed more than 80% of his passes and averaged 311.5 passing yards per game.

Washington State at Washington (-5.5)—3:30 p.m. ET on Peacock

The “Apple Cup” is another rivalry that has been dismantled by the Pac-12 realignment. These two teams first met all the way back in 1900, and they’ve played 115 times to date. Washington holds a commanding 76-33-6 record in this matchup, and the Huskies have won 12 of the past 14 meetings.

Washington is currently unranked after making it all the way to the College Football National Championship last year. It’s a completely new look for the Huskies, who lost their star quarterback (Michael Penix Jr.) to the NFL and their head coach (Kalen DeBoer) to Alabama. They’re 2-0 to start the new era, but they’ve got a long way to go to fill their predecessors’ shoes.

Washington State managed to pick up an unexpected win as a home underdog vs. Texas Tech last week, and they’d love nothing more than to beat the rivals before they start their conference schedule.

Is this going to be the best game you’ll see all weekend? Probably not. But I’m a sucker for a rivalry trophy and a little bit of bad blood. This game fits the description.

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CFB BETS

Best Bets for College Football Week 3

by Thor Nystrom

FIU at FAU

Florida Atlantic has been disappointing through two weeks. The Owls managed to stay reasonably close to Michigan State in the opener, greatly aided by the Spartans’ new passing game pieces struggling to acclimate. Last week, FAU was dominated, 24-7, by one-dimensional Army.

Army completed just one pass. 

Instead, the Black Knights lit up FAU for over 400 yards rushing. For the second straight week, FAU struggled to generate offense. The reason? The entire offense is running through limited scrambler QB Cam Fancher. FAU doesn’t have a running game without him, but Fancher doesn’t throw well enough to keep defenses from keying on him.

While FAU appears to have a solid pass defense, it has been getting ripped on the ground. The Owls are fifth-worst in YPC allowed (6.1) and second-worst in rushing YPG allowed (292.0).

Florida International, coming off an emphatic 52-10 win over CMU, has a decent three-RB stable along with dual-threat QB Keyone Jenkins. FIU should be able to exploit FAU’s generous run defense.

FIU is also well-coached. Thus far, the Panthers have only turned the ball over once, while its defense has generated six turnovers. FIU is well-suited to take advantage of an FAU team struggling to find an offensive identity.

The pick: FIU +5.5

UCF at TCU

TCU actually opened as the 1.5-point favorite. But the market quickly, and correctly, flipped that. At publishing time, it was up to UCF -2.5. We believe UCF is playable at that number.

UCF has one of the nation’s most dangerous rushing attacks. The Knights rank No. 4 in rushing success rate, and their hyper-tempo system currently sits at No. 13 in adjusted tempo. If you cannot defend the run, you’re going to have a long day versus UCF.

TCU’s run defense is a large part of the reason why we faded TCU against Stanford in the opener. We cashed that ticket. Former Boise State HC Andy Avalos, now TCU’s DC, transitioned the Frogs from former DC Joe Gillespie’s 3-3-5 to a 4-2-5. TCU lost its best DL, Damonic Williams, to Oklahoma in the offseason.

Stanford has a mediocre passing attack, and it doesn’t have much talent in the RB room. However, against TCU, Cardinal QB Ashton Daniels rushed for 120 yards when you omit sack yardage. 

This sets up to be a big day on the ground for dual-threat UCF QB KJ Jefferson and the devastating RB duo of RJ Harvey/Peny Boone. 

The pick: UCF -1.5

AROUND THE WATERCOOLER

The latest analysis and insights from our merry band of sports betting nerds:

Rise and grind. Thor Nystrom, Gene Clemons, and Eric Froton break down the CFB Week 3 slate live at 10 a.m. ET.

WR matchups to target and avoid in NFL Week 2. Good for fantasy, better for prop bets.

The Over was looking good on Thursday Night Football … until it wasn’t. No points in the final 24.5 minutes officially cashes the under.

Prayers up for Tua. After suffering another concussion on Thursday Night Football, at least one NFL coach thinks he should hang it up.

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