What else is in today’s newsletter?

• Look Into My Crystal Ball

• Tuesday Night Charts

Look Into My Crystal Ball 🔮—Giants Among Men

Ah, Week 2, the NFL’s annual buy-low bonanza—where everyone competes over the biggest overreaction to the very last thing they saw. I’ll admit even as a seasoned trader I’m holding my nose for this one … but I’m betting on the Giants’ offense (do NOT call the authorities, I’m OK).

For better or worse, we’re setting up against the leakiest defensive unit in the NFL. After not doing much to improve off a disastrous 2023 campaign, so far Washington’s 2024 defense already ranks 30th or worse in:

• Points Allowed Per Game (37.0)

• Defensive EPA/Play (-0.28)

• Average Drive Distance (44.8 yards)

• Time Of Possession Per Drive (3:44)

• Opponent’s Drive Success Rate (77.8%)

• Defensive EPA/Dropback (-0.76)

• Opposing Passer Rating (146.4)

• Completion Percentage Allowed (80.0%)

• Passing Yards Per Game (280.0)

• +20-Yard Completions Allowed (4)

• Passing TDs (4)

No misframing here, people. We can go back through last year if you want and Washington’s still DEAD LAST in every macro stat that matters—like points per game…

… yards allowed per game …

…and opposing scoring drive success rate.

In fact, the Commanders allowed an average of 34.1 points across their last 9 regular-season games, with a minimum of 27. So if the Giants can’t make it here, they can’t make it anywhere—in what would surely be the first true sign it’s time to move on from Daniel Jones. 

THE BET: NY Giants Over 20.5 Points (-120)

If College Football is also your game, follow the weekly best bets from our Betting Life staff.

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Tuesday Night Charts —  🏈📊

Each Tuesday (during my only chance to catch a mid-week breath) I’ll be presenting the league through the lens of a single image.

While no one picture or stat can truly shoulder such a load, learning to take the temperature of each team’s offensive and defensive expected points added (EPA) will sharpen your game—this per-play metric that defines the value of each play by the effect it has on the offense's likelihood to score. It provides an analytically dense, perspective-laden snapshot that is absolutely worth familiarizing yourself with. 

NOTE: Positive EPA is ideal on both sides of the ball—so in this specific case below, the closer to the upper-right corner, the better a team’s combined performance on both sides of the ball.  

THE GOOD:

• NO—A good piece of this may wind up based on putrid Panthers play, but the Saints certainly put the league on notice in that rout.

• MIN—Same argument, but replace Panthers for Giants. Main takeaway? Sam Darnold could be good at football.

• MIA—The Dolphins disappointed us in the scoring department, but showed well in both phases. They’ll be fine.

THE BAD:

• DEN—Of all the “bad” teams so far, I have the most hope for the Broncos. Rookie QBs will always frustrate at times but the long-term needle is pointing up.

• CLE—Things in Cleveland continue to spiral toward the septic tank … lucky for them a stout defense should keep them competitive. 

• LV—Who would’ve guessed quarterback play matters so much in the NFL? Gardner Minshew played an efficient game but 4.5 air yards per attempt is unsustainable at this level.

THE UGLY:

• NYG—Bad enough to compel disgruntled fans to wait by the player exit and heckle them. Yikes.

• CAR—One more game like Sunday and harsh as it may seem, the Bryce Young experiment could be a wrap.

  BONUS CHART! Team Yard Differential

Who will win NFL MVP? Our Futures Odds will help you make your bet.

The latest analysis and insights from our merry band of sports betting nerds:

On the latest Betting Life Show … Our Favorite Spread Bets for NFL Week 2!

College Football Week 2 Recap and Week 3 Early Lines! What teams and players props are Claudia and Thor betting?

You can mine plenty of potential player props from Matthew Freedman’s Favorites.

Bet who at 45-1? Find out in the 2024 Procore Championship Odds and Picks.

Go home! Keep this in mind when betting Top 25 College Football matchups this Saturday.

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