💥 UFC Vegas 88, THE PLAYERS, and NCAA conference championships

I personally do a shoey every time I finish one of these newsletters.

In today’s Betting Life newsletter presented by BetMGM.

Friday’s NBA slate is on the smaller side, with just six games to choose from. That said, we still have some opportunities to look for value in the betting market.

Let’s dive into a few of my favorite options for tonight’s slate.

☀️ Phoenix Suns (-10.5) at Charlotte Hornets (-108; DraftKings)

I have gone down with the Suns quite a bit recently. They failed to cover in either of their two recent losses vs. the Celtics, and they couldn’t get the job done against the Cavaliers either. Overall, they’re just 25-39-2 ATS this season, giving them the second-worst record in the league.

As bad as all that sounds, I’m going back to the well one more time Friday vs. the Hornets. While the Suns may not have been able to keep up with the Celtics, they should be able to blow the doors off Charlotte. The Hornets are 26th in Net Rating over their past 10 games, and they simply don’t have the talent to compete at the NBA level. They traded away a bunch of key players before the trade deadline, and they’re also dealing with some key injuries.

Meanwhile, the Suns are essentially at full strength. Kevin Durant, Devin Booker, and Bradley Beal will all be available, and the team has hummed with all three players on the court. They’ve posted a +8.4 Net Rating across 507 minutes together, so Charlotte shouldn’t be able to keep up.

The Suns are on the road for the second leg of a back-to-back, but I’m willing to overlook that in such a mismatch. This spread has already risen by a full point, and I could see it getting even larger before tip-off.

🥂 Julian Champagnie Over 4.5 assists + rebounds (-105; BetMGM)

As usual, I’m going to start off the player props by looking at a player that 90% of casual NBA fans have probably never heard of. Champagnie is a role player for one of the worst teams in basketball, so I don’t blame you if this is the first you’re hearing of him.

However, he’s taken on a bigger role for the team of late. He’s played at least 27.6 minutes in three straight games, and he’s eclipsed 33.5 minutes in two of them. If he’s going to continue to see that much playing time, he should be able to cruise past this number pretty frequently.

That hasn’t been the case so far, with Champagnie going for four rebounds + assists in two of those contests. That said, he had 12 in the other. He’s averaged 5.4 rebounds and 2.6 assists per 36 minutes for the year, so I expect his production to pick up moving forward.

There’s always a chance that the Spurs get blown out, but the fact that this game is being played in Texas should help. The Nuggets are also a notoriously bad team to back as big road favorites, so this game could be closer than expected. Overall, the Paydirt DFS simulations give Champagnie a 93.48% chance of going over 4.5, so I’m all over this prop.

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️⛳️ Rory McIlroy is tied for first after round one of THE PLAYERS. But his round was not without controversy.

👿 Down goes Duke. They lose outright as big favorites in the ACC tournament.

💰 Nearly $3B will be bet legally on the NCAA tournament. Imagine how much more is wagered in family and office pools.

🏹 The Chiefs (finally) add a WR. Will Mahomes’ MVP odds get shorter?

🏈 The moves continue to fly in NFL free agency. Our crew has all the details and fallout in our Free Agency Tracker.

🐝 This week’s sign of the apocalypse. A tennis match gets delayed due to… bees!?

🏀 Joe Mazzulla is already in the running for Coach of the Year. How about Defensive Player of the Year, too?

💰 Speaking of basketball … you want bets, we have them. +15.37 units on the year in NBA.

After one of the best events of the year, the UFC returns to the Apex Facility for Fight Night this Saturday. Heavyweight action headlines the 13-fight card, with Tai Tuivasa and Marcin Tybura scheduled to throw down in the five-round main event. Saturday’s fights provide bettors with a solid mix of experienced veterans and up-and-coming prospects. Mark Drumheller breaks down the best betting angles to exploit in his UFC Vegas 88 best bets. 

👟 Tai Tuivasa Over Marcin Tybura by KO/TKO/DQ or Decision (-115; DraftKings)

Who wouldn’t want to spend Saturday betting on a fighter who guzzles beer out of a shoe? Tai Tuivasa’s post-win celebrations instantly made him a fan favorite during his rise up the rankings, but three consecutive losses have bettors hesitant to trust him against No.10-ranked Marcin Tybura. 

This fight is a good example of the market trying to reconcile the strong level of competition in Tuivasa’s recent losses with the impact of getting finished in three straight fights. 

I’m confident that dynamic is providing betting value on Tuivasa at this price. 

Tuivasa plateaued during his five-fight win streak before his recent skid knocked him back into the middle tier of the rankings. He couldn’t overcome Ciryl Gane’s freakish athleticism, Sergei Pavlovich’s power, or Alexander Volkov's length. His opponent is a well-rounded fighter this time, but Tybura lacks the elite traits that gave Tuivasa trouble against the division’s best. That’s an important factor when considering both fighters’ path to victory. 

I’m willing to buy low on Tuivasa against an opponent who isn’t a big enough threat while upright to stop him from crashing the pocket. Tybura hasn’t knocked down an opponent in his last sixteen fights. Tuivasa is 4-0 in his last four as the betting favorite, which supports his ability to deliver when he isn’t facing top heavyweights. The last time we saw Tybura, he only lasted 1:13 with Tom Aspinall, so expecting him to weather the early storm against another heavy-handed heavyweight is asking a bit too much from the 38-year-old.

🥊 Gerald Meerschaert Over Bryan Barberena by Submission (+110; DraftKings)

This will be Meerschaert’s 53rd professional fight. The 36-year-old veteran has 27 submission victories in 35 career wins. He has lost three of his last four fights but comes into this bout against Barberena as a heavy -240 favorite. It’s only the second time since 2018 that Meerschaert is being positioned as the betting favorite, which tells you all you need to know about his opponent. 

After being submitted in consecutive fights, Barberena moved to middleweight only to drop his debut. A three-fight losing streak and switching weight classes are classic red flags, but the stylistic matchup favors Meerschaert as well. Barberena has struggled to defend takedowns throughout this career and is now competing in a higher weight class. In his first fight at 185 lbs., he allowed Makhmud Muradov to set a new middleweight record by taking him down 13 times in 16 attempts. 

Meerschaert won’t have any problem using his five-reach advantage to keep Barberna at bay before deciding to plant his opponent on the mat. Meerschaert’s last seven wins have come via submission, so this prop was an easy bet to make at plus money on a big favorite.