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🌞 Two Games, Countless Opportunities!
The best football Sunday of the year ...
The AFC & NFC Championships are HERE …
In today’s Betting Life newsletter presented by BetMGM:
Sunday Injuries: Ravens & 49ers have the edge.
Early Super Bowl Projections: All four matchups …
BAL vs. KC: Mahomes can do it again
SF vs. DET: Offenses expected to shine
It’s 1/28: Take it away, Matthew Freedman…
One day, two games: Ravens-Chiefs and 49ers-Lions.
Winners meet in the Super Bowl.
Perfection.
While Geoff Ulrich and Matt LaMarca break down the AFC and NFC Championships later in the newsletter, here are the injuries to be aware of for each matchup.
🚑 Ravens
Despite coming out of the postseason bye, the Ravens last week were without No. 1 TE Mark Andrews (ankle, IR) and No. 1 CB Marlon Humphrey (calf).
This week, though, Andrews returned to the active roster and Humphrey practiced fully on Friday. He seems almost certain to play through his questionable tag.
The Ravens could be without depth players in LB Del’Shawn Phillips (shoulder, D) and WR Tylan Wallace (knee, Q), but CB Rock Ya-Sin (knee, Q) seems likely to suit up after closing the week with a full practice.
With an injury-based upgrade this week (thanks to the return of Andrews and Humphrey), the Ravens still offer ML value.
🏹 Chiefs
Once again, the Chiefs will be without NT Derrick Nnadi (tricep) and depth WRs Kadarius Toney (hip, personal) and Skyy Moore (knee, IR).
On the offensive line, they will get back swing OT Wanya Morris (concussion), but OT Prince Tega Wanogho (quad, IR) is not ready for reactivation — and most importantly the Chiefs will lack first-team All-Pro LG Joe Thuney (pectoral).
I’m tentatively optimistic that RB Isiah Pacheco (ankle, toe), LB Willie Gay (neck), and FS Mike Edwards (concussion) will all play through their questionable tags, but Pacheco and Gay specifically could be limited.
The Chiefs aren’t monstrously wounded, but their injuries do make them vulnerable.
⛏️ 49ers
WR Deebo Samuel (shoulder) exited the Divisional Round early and (to me) seemed unlikely to play this week. But he practiced fully on Friday and was removed from the final injury report. Samuel is suiting up for the NFC Championship.
And the 49ers otherwise have no injury concerns: Whether DT Kalia Davis (ankle, IR) and LB Oren Burks (shoulder) play through their questionable tags is irrelevant.
I’m not deducting any injury-related win equity from the 49ers projection this week: They’re healthy.
🦁 Lions
On the positive side, C Frank Ragnow (ankle, toe, knee, back — basically, his existence) practiced fully on Friday and will play this weekend. Also, EDGE James Houston (ankle, IR) finally seems ready to return to action.
And I expect CB Chase Lucas (illness, Q) and No. 3 QB Hendon Hooker (tooth, Q) to be available. (I typed that sentence laughing.)
On the negative side, field-stretching WR Kalif Raymond (knee) will be on the sideline for a third straight straight week, and he’ll be joined by LG Jonah Jackson (knee).
The Lions aren’t maimed, but Raymond and Jackson matter, and Ragnow — as well as TE Sam LaPorta (knee), WR Josh Reynolds (ribs) and LB Alex Anzalone (shoulder, ribs) — isn’t in a good spot.
If they lose — and I’ve bet against them — you won’t hear the Lions use injuries as an excuse, but they’re not as healthy as they want (or probably need) to be.
For everything you need for the Conference Championships slate — including our inactives page — you can get to your destination with a mere click of a button.
See our suite of tools to get you ready for today’s slate below:
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Read on to see our team’s best bets for both Sunday Divisional Round games!
🏈 When they score, you score. TD bets for Sunday.
📊 Looking sharp isn’t just about how you dress. Where sharps are betting for the AFC & NFC Championships.
🎙️ We’re on to terms and conditions. Bill Belichick gambling ad reads would be great content.
😐 In Detroit we trust? The public is on the Lions this week.
💰 The Ravens money keeps flowing. Some sportsbooks need Chiefs action badly.
🦁 BetMGM is for everyone. Except for Tom Brady.
🤝 Great minds think alike. Bets from the Group Chat for the conference championships.
💰 FREE plays: We got ‘em and are up +53.2 units in NFL.
✍️ The best Pick ’em plays for Sunday: Have you ever heard of … (checks notes) … “Noah Gray”?
🏆 Early Super Bowl projections: Chiefs vs. 49ers would be INTRIGUING.
The first game of the weekend pits the Chiefs vs. the Ravens. This will mark the first playoff meeting between Patrick Mahomes and Lamar Jackson, with Jackson looking to book his first trip to the Super Bowl. The Ravens are favored and at home, but can they overcome the experience of the Chiefs and the greatness of Mahomes? Geoff Ulrich dives into game one of the Conference Championships below …
Play to: +3.5 (-110)
The Chiefs RBs gashed the Bills defense for 7.1 yards per carry last week, as Kansas City deployed far more 12 and 13-man formations than they had all season.
This also opened things up for Travis Kelce (5-75-2, 6 targets), who averaged 15 yards per catch against Buffalo and had his most efficient outing of the year by most standards.
The Ravens seem likely to experience a lot of the same issues the Bills did in this spot. Baltimore was just 22nd in success rate against the run this year and from Week 12 onward, was just 28th in rush success rate. The Chiefs’ offense improved their rushing metrics in the latter half of the season and will have Patrick Mahomes under center, who enters this game 13-3 in playoff games for his career with just one of those losses coming by more than a TD.
Mahomes is also 5-0 ATS for his career when he and the Chiefs have opened as underdogs of +3.0 points or more.
Trends aside, the Chiefs have been a work in progress all year but may finally be coming into their stride at the right moment. The Ravens have been priced at the top of the AFC market for a month now, so if there is any value on either of these teams, it’s likely by taking the points and the Chiefs.
Projection: 15.0
Play to: 10.5 (-110)
The Chiefs’ use of more 12- and 13-man formations last week also led to higher usage for Gray, who played over 60% of the snaps for the first time since Week 5.
Gray was also well above his seasonal averages in route rate (52% vs 43%), targets per route run (TPPR) (23% vs 13%), and targets share (14% vs 7%). I’m not trying to make out Gray to be something he’s not but he was a consistent part of this offense (albeit a small one) before the Bills game and has gone over this 9.5-yard prop now in seven of his last 12 games.
Given how well the Ravens defend against deeper, boundary routes I’d expect the Chiefs to lean on their TEs again. With Kelce taking primary CB or S coverage on nearly every snap there should be some solid opportunities for Gray, whose over projects with a strong edge in our aggregate projections.
Chiefs +4.0
Justice Hill over 14.5 rec yards
Noah Gray over 1.5 rec
Gray anytime TD
I mentioned Noah Gray above and also made the case for betting him in the anytime TD market this week. You certainly don’t have to parlay Gray’s TD prop with anything else to get a nice payout, but a Gray TD does have a strong correlation with a Chiefs cover — so if you’re looking for a quick way to get your SGP above +1500, this is it.
After that, I also chose to include two props from the Ravens which I think correlate nicely. The over on Justice Hill’s receiving yards and the under on Lamar Jackson’s rushing yards. The Bills RBs burned the Chiefs for well over 50 rec yards and if Hill is chewing up gains as a receiver, it should mean fewer opportunities for Jackson to tuck and run.
This is a big swing we’re taking at +4400 but the correlation is there, and if Gray finds the end zone the rest of the legs are much easier to hit.
The penultimate game of the 2023-24 season pits the Detroit Lions against the San Francisco 49ers. The Niners have been the best team in the NFC all year, but a shaky performance last week vs. the Packers has created a smidge of doubt. Can the Lions pull off the upset, or will the 49ers punch their ticket to the Super Bowl? Matt LaMarca breaks down his best bets for the NFC Championship.
I’m a believer in the 49ers – I have a bet on them at -6.5 in the Fantasy Life Bet Tracker – but this spread ultimately seems pretty fair at 7.0. The sharps have shown no real preference on a side in this contest, with the 49ers receiving a slight edge in betting dollars (per the Action Network).
The best option at the moment is probably the over. These are two teams with excellent offenses who should be able to put on a show in San Francisco.
The 49ers have had the No. 1 offense in the league in terms of EPA/play this season. Brock Purdy led the league in QBR, Adjusted Yards per Attempt, and EPA + CPOE composite, while Christian McCaffrey led the league in rushing yards. With Deebo Samuel removed from the injury report, they should be in line for a monster performance vs. the Lions’ suspect defense.
Meanwhile, Jared Goff led the Lions to the No. 8 ranking in EPA/play, and the 49ers defense isn’t quite as dominant as it used to be. They were 10th in EPA/play defensively during the regular season, and their run defense is particularly weak. Detroit has an excellent ground game with Jahmyr Gibbs and David Montgomery, so they should be able to take advantage.
Add in near-perfect weather conditions, and both offenses should have no problems putting up points. The sharps have already pushed this number as high as 52.5 at some locations, but you can still find a 51.5 on FanDuel.
The 49ers have an abundance of options in the passing game, but Aiyuk has blossomed into their top guy. He was quiet last week vs. the Packers, but he led the team in target share and air yards during the regular season.
Aiyuk’s struggles vs. the Packers can be attributed primarily to his quarterback. Purdy clearly struggled with the conditions, so he was far less aggressive than usual pushing the ball down the field. McCaffrey had a season-high 12 targets, while Aiyuk posted one of his lowest target shares of the year.
This is the perfect buy-low spot for Aiyuk. Not only should Purdy be more aggressive vs. the Lions, but it’s an ideal matchup. Mike Evans and Puka Nacua have torched the Lions in back-to-back weeks, and Aiyuk should keep that trend going. We have him projected for more than 88 receiving yards, so there’s plenty of value with the over on 76.5.
Over 51.5
McCaffrey anytime touchdown
Aiyuk 100+ receiving yards
Aiyuk anytime touchdown
Gibbs 50+ rushing yards
I’m building this SGP around two main players: Aiyuk and Gibbs. Aiyuk should be able to tear up the Lions’ secondary, while Gibbs should have plenty of success on the ground. Going with 100+ yards and a touchdown for Aiyuk and 50+ rushing yards for Gibbs seems very reasonable, especially in a game I expect to be high-scoring.
After that, we’ll go with the over on 51.5 and add the seemingly inevitable McCaffrey anytime touchdown. McCaffrey has scored in all but three games this season – including two last week – so his odds seem light at “only” -300.