⛳ Triple Threat: Scheffler v. McIlroy v. Koepka

2024 PGA Championship preview and picks

May 15, 2024

“I don’t want a piece of you, I want the whole thing!” — Bob Barker (Pet Lover, Gameshow Host, Southpaw)

In today’s Betting Life newsletter presented by Underdog.

  • PGA Championship Preview: Dissecting the Favorites at Valhalla

  • NBA Wednesday: Win or go home for the shorthanded Cavs.

  • PGA Championship Bets: Which longshot can make the most noise?

  • It’s 5/15. Take it away, Geoff Ulrich

The season's second major championship starts this week, and for a sport that sometimes lacks the drama of other leagues, the storylines, quite frankly, could not be juicier. To start, the top three players in the betting odds (Scottie Scheffler, Rory McIlroy, and Brooks Koepka) are all coming in off dominant wins.

Secondly, the personal news, which is often nonexistent in golf, has been flowing non-stop. On Monday, it was finally confirmed that Scheffler’s wife had delivered the couple’s first child, giving him the green light to return to work. Then, about 24 hours later, and directly after his win at the Wells Fargo, it was announced that McIlroy and his wife were filing for divorce.

Jon Rahm (LIV and PGA Doublespeak) and Xander Schauffele (sketchy drops and never winning) have also been under scrutiny of late. Add in Koepka, who has never been one to mince words, and the top five players could likely star in and fill a full season’s worth of reality TV this week.

I’ll have best bets later on, but with so much recent news to unpack, let’s start with a quick overview of the top players and some discussion about their odds and chances.

1️⃣ Scottie Scheffler (+400; DraftKings)

I can’t get over the feeling that, eventually, these short odds on Scheffler will feel somewhat ridiculous. He’s the best player in golf, but there is just no room for error with a player who had a less-than-ideal lead-up and is sitting this short in odds in a 156-man field full of hungry sharks.

Scheffler has proven me wrong twice over the last month and a half, but resisting FOMO this week feels like the right call. It's better to stay off the ship altogether if you’re not already on board than be the last person on before the regression iceberg hits.

At this point, I’ve heard all the takes on Rory, who is setting up to be a polarizing player this week. McIlroy has always been a feast-or-famine player, with many of his wins coming in bunches. It’s not for nothing that he had also won twice in a row before his 2014 win at Valhalla.

I do know that a confident McIlroy is not a person to take lightly, and in many ways, he’s a scarier fade this week than Scheffler. Given that his odds have come down to +700, there is likely better value lurking behind him. However, he’s someone I’ll at least be looking to get exposure to in fantasy or Pick’em lineups on Underdog.

Schauffele’s most certainly the current BPIGWAM — Best Player in Golf Without a Major — but also the clear number five of this group for me.

There is undoubtedly enough talent in Schauffele’s game to win big events, but it’s now been nearly two years since his last professional win. Taking him at +1400 when you can back Rahm or Koepka at better prices makes him a hard person to get behind at the season’s second major.

Koepka often brings attention to himself just because of his near-narcissistic confidence levels, but this week, he’s easily the top-five player with the least amount of drama. His odds didn’t move much after his win two weeks ago in Singapore, and he remains ideally suited for these longer PGA Championship layouts.

He can also tie Tiger Woods, who also has four PGA Championships, with another Wanamaker trophy this week, a fact which should only add more fuel to the fire for a man who truly measures himself by majors.

This is the best number we have seen on Rahm at a major in quite some time. He was +1200 at the Masters and has ballooned as high as +1800 for this event at some books.

Rahm remains a top-tier talent but played poorly at Augusta and has yet to win since moving to LIV. Long term, you may regret not taking this number on Rahm, but there are enough concerns with his game to keep him from being a slam dunk bet, even at these rarely-seen price levels.

⛳️ PGA Championship Battles at Valhalla

Who's taking home The Wanamaker Trophy?

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Check out their Pick'em games today!

🏒 Colorado is on the ropes; can they survive? Goal props and a +1200 parlay for a pivotal Game 5.

⚾ Pfaadt your bankroll with the Diamondbacks today. Best Bets for Wednesday MLB.

🗽 Knicks in the driver’s seat. The odds say Indiana is in deep trouble.

🤷 Caitlin Clark giveth, Caitlin Clark taketh away. Her debut was fun to watch but didn’t go the way most bettors wanted it to.

🧾 The NFL schedule finally gets released tonight. Will the 49ers remain as betting favorites after it’s over?

🐐 Two GOATS dapped it up at the PGA, and the result? One iconic picture. John Daly remains a national treasure.

PGA Best Bets

Earlier in the week we previewed the course and went through some noteworthy trends for betting. Today, we’re all about the bets. Geoff Ulrich is back with his outright plays for the week and an early Thursday tee time to target for the first-round leader market.

Koepka defines himself by major championships. Other players talk the talk, but Koepka is one of the few players who truly bases his entire livelihood around the big events. Of his 13 career wins on LIV and the PGA TOUR, five have been at majors.

Koepka may have mistimed his peak for the Masters, but it doesn’t look like he’s made the same mistake for the PGA. He posted a T9 in Australia directly after Augusta, and his last start on LIV yielded a multiple-stroke win in Singapore at another rain-softened course two weeks ago. 

Despite the perfect lead-in, his odds haven’t moved much, thanks in large part to McIlroy’s win last week, as he’s still available at +1600 or better at several books. It’s a close call between Koepka and Rahm in this range, but I’m fine giving the nod to Koepka at his favorite tournament of the season.

📈 Bryson DeChambeau Each-Way 1/4 Top-5 (+2800, bet365)

The closer we get to tee off, the more I’m convinced that the softer course and longer layout are setting up perfectly for DeChambeau. He’s still got plenty of length off the tee despite having slimmed down, and he comes into this week off a T6 at the year’s first major, which he also led after Round 1.

While his major win came at the U.S. Open back in 2020, the PGA Championship has been DeChambeau's best major in some ways, as his T4 from last season represented his second top-five finish at this event.

Despite the solid start to 2024, DeChambeau’s price has remained relatively unchanged from Augusta, a course where he’s had limited success. I think there's a good argument to be made that his chances are just as good or better than several players below him in odds. That makes DeChambeau a good outright target as well as a good each-way bet for what is shaping up to be his strongest major.

  • Top-20 (+270, FanDuel)

Straka’s results over the past two years would likely surprise people if they went and looked them up. He’s now accumulated two wins over the past two seasons to go along with multiple top-10s in majors.

While he doesn’t have the distance off the tee that some of the elite names in this field do, Straka has asserted himself well at plenty of longer venues. That includes finishing T7 at Oak Hill, the site of last year’s PGA Championship, where he gained 10.4 strokes on approach.

Straka's putter has also been on a heater as of late (+2.5 strokes or more putting in four straight starts). If that club shows up for him, his irons are strong enough to allow him to contend on a potentially wet course where scrambling may not be a huge factor. 

  • Top-10 after Round 1 (+700; bet365)

Theegala had a roller coaster-like tournament last week. He shot a second-round 65 and gained 3.14 strokes on approach but followed that up with a third-round 80, losing over 8.0 strokes on Approach and Around the Green combined. 

The 26-year-old is resilient and has been in good form all season, so a quick bounce back in Round 1 this week is not something I’d shy away from betting on. He’s already shot 66 or better three times in Round 1 this season and has an early tee time on Thursday — which affords him a good shot at seeing more receptive greens. His overall consistency makes him a less-than-ideal outright play for me, but the perfect candidate to back in the first-round leader market.