What else is in today’s newsletter?

• Look Into My Crystal Ball

• The New York Prop Exchange

Look Into My Crystal Ball 🔮 — I See … A Daily Special

The very first piece I wrote for all you lovely Betting Life readers centered around my love affair with the Miami Dolphins Week 1 setup. To quote my favorite writer, world-renowned gentleman, and beloved statesman (me): “Ignore the preseason.”

Just a day or two ago, Tyreek Hill’s hand hurt, and Jaylen Waddle was wearing a non-contact jersey. To quote an actual great writer this time, Ian Rapoport said it’s all systems go for Miami’s track-star duo Waddle and Hill. I am shocked.

Obviously, the Dolphins offense under Mike McDaniel, the NFL’s version of a Lego Master Builder, pushes opposing defenses to their mental and physical limits. His ability to deploy weapon-specific schemes in unique ways to create space can’t be understated. Along with Kyle Shanahan—the other known genius in the room—you simply must not ignore how far ahead these types of offenses separate themselves from the field in terms of yardage efficiency. 

The best way to lead the day in scoring is on the back of big plays, and nobody does it better than Miami—but it's more than just the 33% lead on the entire league in 50-plus-yard plays…

…it’s the fact the Fins led the NFL in both phases—pretty impressive stuff…

…especially when considering the Jaguars ranked 27th in passing yards allowed per game last year.

I needed to make some semblance of an analytically driven argument before we got to the fun stuff.

The dirtiest non-surgical secret down in Miami Beach is how the Dolphins home-field advantage literally cooks their competition. Don’t take my word it—this Washington Post headline and corresponding article say it all (below). 

So just how good has Miami’s scoring offense been the last two years at home in hot-weather games (>83°F)? How does 40+ PPG, without going below 30 once in 5 games sound?

I guess the last thing left to do is check the handy-dandy Google machine for Sunday’s weather in South Florida …

… and we are locked and loaded for action.

THE BET: Miami Dolphins Highest-Scoring Team Sunday (+900) Bet 0.10u (min)—DraftKings Sportsbook

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The New York Prop Exchange ⚾️🏛️—Two Suburbans And A Herz

It’s hard to get a ticket when DJ Herz takes the bump. Who actually gets that reference? Washington’s 23-year-old lefty faces the black-and-yellow at PNC Park tonight. Love betting on pitchers like Herz who always seem to invite advantageous prices—he’s not only outpitched his 4.09 ERA, 1.27 WHIP combo, but also plays for a bad team. Public bias is very real, people.

Hertz’s disciplinary stats stand up to anyone’s (29% K, 15% Swinging Strike), displaying true double-digit strikeout ceilings more than once this season (image below). I’ve also always been a sucker for starters who use extension plus spin to generate swings and misses with the four-seamer—it tops off an arsenal without a single offering <25% Whiff rate. Nice.

Flipside we have the Pirates who appear to be preparing for golf this fall. They’ve especially seemed to pack it in versus left-handers, rocking the stone-cold worst strikeout rate vs. LHP in the last 30 days.

THE BET: DJ Herz Over 5.5 K (+100) Bet 1.0u—DraftKings Sportsbook

You can search for MLB Player Props for today’s slate with our MLB Prop Bet Finder!

The latest analysis and insights from our merry band of sports betting nerds:

Get ready for the Week 2 Betting Life College Football Pregame Show at 10 a.m. ET on Saturday.

With Week 1 off to a blazing start, find out if the Cowboys are road warriors and other NFL Best Bets.

Time to dive into some Week 1 NFL Player Props.

John Laghezza and Coach Gene Clemons prep you for NFL Survivor in Week 1.

Big UFC Fight tomorrow night, see the Bets and Predictions for Burns vs. Brady.

Matthew Freedman found out that this Rice was cooking against the Ravens.

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