What is in today’s newsletter?

1. NFL win total head-to-heads that have Matt LaMarca’s attention.

2. Geoff Ulrich breaks down his best bets for the 2024 Genesis Scottish Open.

3. Best bets for a massive MLB slate on Wednesday.

NFL Win Total Head-to-Heads

by Matt LaMarca

Atlanta Falcons (-110, Caesars) vs. Miami Dolphins

I am extremely bullish on the Falcons headed into this season. I touched on a few of the reasons in my schedule winners and losers piece, but the biggest thing working in this team’s favor is the schedule. The NFC South is the worst division in football, and the Falcons are the clear top team, according to the oddsmakers. They’re -135 to finish with the best record in the division, while no other team is priced better than +360 (Caesars).

The Falcons also had a favorable schedule last year, which they rode to a 7-10 record. Of course, they didn’t have Kirk Cousins last year. Cousins gives the team a massive upgrade at the most important position in football, with Desmond Ridder and Taylor Heinicke grading out as one of the worst QB duos from last season. If Cousins goes down with an injury, the team also has a first-round rookie passer waiting in the wings.

As long as Atlanta stays reasonably healthy, nine wins feel like their floor. Their over has already been bet up to 9.5, with the over sitting at -140.

On the other side, the Dolphins will have to navigate one of the toughest divisions in football. Four games against the Jets and Bills isn’t easy, and they also have dates with the Packers, Texans, 49ers, and Browns on the docket. Only the game vs. the 49ers will be played at home, so they close the year with an absolute gauntlet of a schedule.

If they don’t start the year with a bang, they could end with a whimper. The over on their win total of 9.5 is priced at -120, so I like the head-to-head odds with the Falcons.

New York Giants (+125, Caesars) vs. Las Vegas Raiders

The Raiders closed last year strong on the defensive side, and they’ll probably be pretty good on defense again. I expect Antonio Pierce to get the most out of what they have.

However, this team has the potential to be one of the worst offenses in football. They’re relying on a combination of Garnder Minshew and Aidan O’Connell at quarterback. Josh Jacobs is gone after leading the league in rushing two years ago. They used their first-round pick on TE Brock Bowers, which felt more like a luxury than filling a position of need.

Add in the fact that Davante Adams is aging, and the cupboard looks pretty bare. This is a team that could be jockeying to draft a franchise quarterback in 2025.

The Giants are decent underdogs to the Raiders, which makes sense with how they played last year. However, they were a surprise playoff team two years ago under head coach Brian Daboll, and they filled a huge need with wide receiver Malik Nabers in the draft. They also addressed their offensive line in the offseason, and while they’re not expected to be an elite unit, they should be better than they were last year. Just getting star left tackle Andrew Thomas to stay healthy would represent a huge upgrade.

Daniel Jones is definitely not worth the money the Giants gave him two years ago, but he’s proven that he can produce with the right pieces around him. I think the Giants could surprise this season, and it should shock no one if they finish with a better record than the Raiders.

🌟 Elevate Your Game with BetMGM!

Another day... another 15-game MLB slate!

Calling all sports fans! Ready to take your game to the next level? BetMGM is your ticket to action-packed sports betting. Turn your sports knowledge into winnings with BetMGM.

BetMGM is offering new users up to $1500 in Bonus Bets if your first bet doesn't hit! That's right, place your first bet and BetMGM will pay you back in bonus bets up to $1,500 if your first bet doesn't win!

Sign up for BetMGM today!

Best Bets for the 2024 Genesis Scottish Open

by Geoff Ulrich

Viktor Hovland Outright (+2200; bet365)

• Top Five (+450; DraftKings)

When we’re breaking down the top 10 players in the betting odds this week, I think you have to like the fact we are getting Viktor Hovland above +2000, on a coastal coast – and in a field WITHOUT Scottie Scheffler. 

Hovland may have disappointed at the US Open, but his renaissance since switching back to old swing coach Joe Mayo is still in its infancy. He’s fifth in strokes gained approach stats over the last 24 rounds and has been a beast off the tee (OTT) the last two months, gaining 4.6 strokes OTT at the 7,500+ yard Valhalla (PGA Championship) and 5.2 strokes OTT at the shorter TPC River Highlands (Travelers). 

His approach game dipped a little at the Travelers and his short game needs another reset, but two weeks off to prep seems like the perfect remedy for both those issues. The bottom line is that Hovland has thrived at offshore venues like the Renaissance Club – where he doesn’t have to deal with heavy rough around the greens – and the slightly milder weather this season should be in his favor. 

I’d happily play him down to +2000 this week given where the other market leaders sit and I like combining his outright with a top-five play with the conditions this season looking like they should be favorable for his game. 

Tom Hoge Top 10 (+650; bet365)

• Top 20 (+300; bet365)

Hoge’s a superb iron player whose lone PGA win came at another tricky coastal course in Pebble Beach. While his overall upside with the putter and around the green is lacking he’s more than capable of handling himself around a links track, especially one with receptive greens – such as the ones we’re likely to see this week. 

Coming into this week, he ranks first in opportunities gained, 8th in strokes gained approach, and 19th in Par 3 scoring over the last 24 rounds of play. He also finished a tidy T19 at this event last year, shooting 66 in rounds 2 and 3. With his iron game spiking again (+8.2 SG: APP in his last start) I like his chances of paying off some decent odds in the placing market this weekend.

The latest analysis and insights from our merry band of football nerds:

⛳️ Flashback to when Rory McIlroy defied some serious odds to win the 2023 Scottish Open. Robert MacIntyre bettors, avert your eyes.

🏀 USA Basketball are big favorites to win it all in Paris. But there are lots of talented squads lurking behind them.

⚾️ 15 games of baseball on tap. Best bets for Wednesday’s MLB slate.

After a hot start to summer, this Grizzly is now the consensus favorite for Rookie of the Year. For a favorite, these odds are still decent.

😬 This former Vikings RB is coming off a miserable season. He can’t possibly be worse in 2024, can he?

📈 This Saints WR has already stacked up a lot of big games. Can he improve in year three? The numbers say yes.  

🍗 One week after downing 57 hot dogs in five minutes, Joey Chestnut set another record. Dear God that is a lot of chicken wings.

Keep the edge in your league with our basic Tier 1 package. Or become merciless with our advanced Tier 2 package. Email subscribers get a 10% discount with code FAMILY.