The SEC Reigns Supreme

Three huge conference showdowns ...

October 05, 2024

Oct. 5, 2024
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When it comes to college football, there’s the SEC … and then there’s everybody else. That isn’t to say that there aren’t good teams in other conferences. Michigan won the championship last year, while Ohio State and Oregon are among the favorites this season.

But in terms of the week-to-week grind? Nothing compares to the SEC.

Matt LaMarca

Every single week features marquee matchups. There are no easy games on the schedule, and the stakes are incredibly high.

Even with the expanded 12-team playoffs, it seems like four, maybe five SEC schools can make the field. Anything more than that is asking too much. Even if they might have the talent to be one of the best 12 teams in the nation, the committee isn’t taking a three or four-loss SEC school over the Big 10 or ACC runner-up.

The SEC currently has five schools ranked in the top nine of the AP poll (as does Thor Nystrom), with three others ranked in the top 20. That doesn’t even include Texas A&M, which is just barely on the outside looking in with a 4-1 record.

It is going to be an absolute war between these squads as they jockey for position throughout the year. One week can change everything. Just ask Ole Miss. They were considered a popular sleeper team to contend for the championship, but one loss to Kentucky currently has them on the outside looking in. Any more unexpected blemishes on their schedule—which contains matchups vs. LSU, Oklahoma, and Georgia—and it’s hard to see them making the playoffs.

We’ll get some more clarity in this juggernaut conference in Week 6. Let’s dive into the three matchups I’ll be keeping my eye on.

What else is in today’s newsletter?

  1. The three best college games for your viewing pleasure on Saturday

  2. Thor Nystrom details his favorite wagers for the Week 6 college slate

  3. Watercooler: Pete Alonso slugs the Mets to the NLDS

CFB WEEK 6

The Casual Fan’s Guide to College Football Week 6

by Matt LaMarca

Ole Miss (-8.5) at South Carolina—3:30 p.m. ET on ESPN

Ole Miss enters this game as a significant favorite, but the Gamecocks are a sneaky-tough opponent. Specifically, they have a pass rush that can harass opposing quarterbacks. They have the No. 4 pass rush in the nation per PFF, while Ole Miss has some holes on the offensive line.

We saw that come back to bite the Rebels last week vs. Kentucky. They took down quarterback Jaxson Dart for four sacks, and the explosive Ole Miss offense managed just 17 points and 353 yards of total offense.

Can they bounce back vs. South Carolina? Despite the Gamecocks’ subpar showing, they’re still averaging just under 600 yards per game against FBS opponents. South Carolina has already dismantled Kentucky on the road and should’ve beaten LSU, so it’s a very scary matchup for Ole Miss.

Tennessee (-13.5) at Arkansas—7:30 p.m. ET on ABC

The Tennessee bandwagon is getting pretty full. Nico Iamaleava has emerged as a legit contender for the Heisman Trophy, averaging 10.7 adjusted yards per attempt as a passer while adding 117 yards on the ground. Add in a strong defense—anchored by stud pass rusher James Pearce Jr.—and this team has all the makings of a playoff squad.

That said, the Volunteers showed just a little bit of vulnerability in their last outing. They did manage to get past Oklahoma, but they managed just 25 points and had 2 turnovers. They were never really in jeopardy of losing, but it wasn’t nearly as pretty as it had been to start the year.

Can the Razorbacks catch them sleeping? Tennessee still has to navigate a bear of a schedule, with dates with Alabama and Georgia both looming. They can theoretically still make the playoffs if they lose both of those contests, but it’s going to make life a lot more difficult.

If they don’t give Arkansas their full attention, they could stumble. Arkansas has averaged better than 5 yards per carry this season, and Thor Nystrom has them at No. 30 in his power ratings. They might not win a ton of games in the brutal SEC, but this is still a good team that will be playing in front of their home fans. Don’t be surprised if this one is closer than expected.

Missouri at Texas A&M (-2.5)—12 p.m. ET on ABC

The best SEC game of the week will be the first one, with Missouri and Texas A&M squaring off at noon ET. Missouri enters this matchup with a top-10 ranking and a perfect 4-0 record, but it has yet to be tested. This will be just the Tigers’ second SEC matchup, and they narrowly escaped with a three-point win vs. Vanderbilt in their first. They also got a big scare from Boston College, who managed to cover the spread.

Meanwhile, the Aggies have completely righted the ship over their past four games. They started the year with a loss to Notre Dame, but they’ve rattled off four consecutive wins. That includes wins over Arkansas and Florida, the latter of which was on the road.

Despite Missouri being the higher-ranked squad, it’s actually the Aggies who will take the field as favorites in this matchup. If they can knock off Missouri at Kyle Field, it will put them right back in the race for a potential playoff spot.

It wouldn’t be a death blow for Missouri’s playoff chances, with a relatively easy schedule remaining by SEC standards. Still, it has showdowns with Alabama and Oklahoma on the schedule, and would likely need to win at least one of those.

This is the week we find out if Missouri is for real. Are they Tigers or paper tigers? I’m excited to find out.

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CFB BETS

Best Bets for College Football Week 6

by Thor Nystrom

Below is one of my best bets for this weekend in College Football Week 6, which is a mix of picks on the spread and player props.

Michigan at Washington Pick

This week, we happen to love a bunch of ugly dogs. This matchup is a bit different—we believe the wrong team is favored.

The public perception of the Wolverines has swung so heavily that they are receiving three points against a Washington team that has also steeply regressed since these teams last met in the national title game.

In that game, in January, we were all over the Wolverines because Michigan had one of the nation’s best rushing offenses, while Washington had one of the P5’s worst run defenses.

We love the on-field matchup in this game for similar reasons.

While the loss of JJ McCarthy has rendered Michigan’s passing offense toothless, the Wolverines still have a strong rushing offense. The Wolverines rank No. 28 in EPA/run, and are top-37 in both yards before contact and yards after contact on rush attempts. 

While Washington has an awesome pass defense, the Huskies’ run defense remains problematic. This was the reason we were on Rutgers last Friday against Washington, a ticket we cashed.

Michigan is a better version of Rutgers. It goes without saying that Washington will not have success running against the Wolverines’ vaunted run defense. That’ll make the Huskies one-dimensional throwing into what is in its own right a strong Wolverines pass defense. 

Lastly, Michigan has an enormous special teams advantage—with the No. 4 SP+ unit going against UW’s No. 130-ranked unit—a factor that might come into play in what I expect to be a tight, low-scoring game. Washington has played only two opponents ranked in the top 75 of my Power Rankings—it lost outright both times by a combined 8 points. My prediction is 21-17 Michigan.

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AROUND THE WATERCOOLER

The latest analysis and insights from our merry band of sports betting nerds:

☕️ Rise and grind. The Week 6 College Football Pregame Show, featuring Thor Nystrom, Coach Gene Clemons, and Eric Froton, kicks off Saturday at 10 a.m. ET.

 🍎 Not hyperbole—Pete Alonso just hit one of the biggest home runs in postseason history. It sets up an NL East showdown between the Mets and Phillies in the NLDS.

💰 We all need more winners in our lives. Freedman’s best bets for NFL Week 5.

🏒 The NHL is officially back, baby. Jacob Markstrom with an early contender for save of the year.

🐅 The Tigers have made it through the first round of the MLB playoffs. Are you cashing this puppy out or letting it ride?

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