The Battle for Texas on MNF

Cowboys-Texans, two teams going in different directions

November 18, 2024

Nov. 18, 2024
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Another manic Monday, coming off a better-than-expected weekend of football. Great witching hour, too—more than half of yesterday’s games finished within one score.

The Chiefs lost while Miami finally scored 28+ points for the first time. The Ravens/Steelers re-discovered their leather helmets of yesteryear, and Taysom Hill detonated for a boxscore line unseen in over 50 years! 

What better way to wash all that down than with more football!?! U-S-A! U-S-A!

John Laghezza

The Monday Night Blitz, Texans (6-4) at Cowboys (3-6): What had to be circled on every calendar in the Lone Star State this summer, suddenly feels more like a high school intramural-squad game. Sorry to my brother-in-law and the rest of the Dallas faithful … it’s bad. Like, really bad. We’re talking underdog-against-the-Panthers-bad. Woof.

We can address the Cowboys’ heaping dung pile of an offense in a minute. I need to vent on the D first. Part of the calculus that made the Cowboys an early favorite to compete centered around their defense’s ability to create havoc. Well, you can forget about that noise—I’m struggling to keep DAL outside the bottom 5 in my first draft of Week 12 power ranks. Woof. It’s looking more and more like I sold the impact of DaRon Bland’s absence on the secondary short. 

Name any reasonable defensive goal for 2024 and Dallas failed to achieve it. From stopping the run, to forcing three-and-outs, preventing deep shots, tackling after the catch, and converting pressure into sacks—it’s an abject disaster for the Cowoys. We’ll drill deeper into the offense later on (visible wretch), but let’s say the picture doesn’t get any rosier.

Now, onto my Texans. As a Jets fan, I always adopt another team to root for, based on the things I care about more than jersey design. Say it loud, say it proud, I love C.J. Stroud. The man, the player, on and off the field. Total legend. Now that I’ve properly fan-boyed my hero, there’s an honest discussion going on surrounding Stroud’s year-over-year progression … or lack thereof.

From a broad perspective, the drop-off appears undeniable (sigh). Stroud slander aside, there’s a pretty obvious reason for Texans fans to be amped about that we’ll cover below. 

C.J. Stroud Passing, 2023 ➡️ 2024

  • EPA/Attempt: +0.24 ➡️ +0.16

  • Passer Rating: 101.8 ➡️ 89.1

  • Passing Yards Per Game: 273.9 ➡️ 237.1

  • Yards Per Attempt: 8.2 ➡️ 7.2

  • INT Per Attempt: 1.0% ➡️ 1.8%

  • TD/INT: 4.6 ➡️ 2.0

  • Passes To Sticks: 51.1% ➡️ 47.1%

  • Sack Rate: 7.1% ➡️ 9.4%

Houston rebounded solidly on D as a unit, posting top-5 defensive ranks in EPA/play and total yards allowed since a Week 3 beatdown in Minnesota. DeMeco Ryans has been living in his bag since, using all types of disguised pressure packs from an essentially exclusive 5-DB scheme. No one has scored 26+ points in seven straight games against HOU, including Detroit and Buffalo. 

What are we realistically expecting from a Cooper Rush-led Dallas squad? I may end up feeling stupid in retrospect, but I can’t wrap my mind around this line being in the single digits. LEAN: HOU -6.5 (-125) 

[Leans were 8-4 this weekend by the way, not too shabby]

I’ll be back on Wednesday as always with all 32 team totals for Week 12 along with a league-wide snapshot through the lens of expected points added.

Make sure to check out the latest NFL Betting Odds:

You can also use our NFL Game Betting Model to identify the biggest edges on game totals, spreads, and moneylines!

What else is in today’s newsletter?

  • No Cap: Hangin’ With Mr. Cooper

  • The New York Prop Exchange: Collins All Cars

  • Sharp Hunter: Where are the Sharps leaning on MNF?

NFL BETTING

No Cap🏈🧢—Hangin’ With Mr. Cooper

Just took a second to meditate on finding the strength to describe this Cowboys’ offense as constituted without cursing. A 7-point spread? With Cooper Rush under center? Listed at +181 passing yards despite having a single premium talent to throw to? Huh?!?

I feel like I’m taking crazy pills. Big-time IKB (I know better) moment for me against the books tonight.

To settle my sanity, let’s drill down into just how bad Rush’s play is so far this season. Reach as deep into the thesaurus under laughable as you’d like, and you still won’t find a single exaggeration—ridiculous, absurd, farcical, preposterous … ooh, I like that one.

Of the 43 humans with 60+ Attempts in the NFL this season, Mr. Cooper ranks exactly where you might expect. There are still only 32 teams mind you, including the Dolphins’ debacles under center without Tua Tagovailoa.

  • -0.26 EPA/Attempt: 43rd

  • 56.5% Completion Rate: 42nd

  • 62.0 Passer Rating: 42nd

  • 3.4 Yards Per Attempt: 43rd

  • 6.5 Air Yards Per Attempt: 39th

  • 1.6% TD Per Attempt: 39th

So where are 180+ passing yards coming from against a Texans secondary allowing less than that on average (174.7)? Again the stupid look on my face, mouth agape says it all. Here’s a list of QBs who failed to reach that milestone: Caleb Williams, Trevor Lawrence, Anthony Richardson, and Josh Allen. Notice anything in common? Yes, they’re all significantly better than the Cowboys in both quarterback play and roster depth. 

The chart above speaks for itself. Jared Goff’s 240 pass yards last Sunday was the high-water mark for the season, and it cost him 5 INTs to get there.

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AROUND THE WATERCOOLER

The latest analysis and insights from our merry band of sports betting nerds:

📺 Claudia and Thor identify the Week 13 Early College Football Betting Lines.

👀 The Week 11 Instant NFL Recap with Ian and Dwain as they break down the Sunday action.

🏈 How many receiving yards for CeeDee Lamb tonight? Check out the Monday Night Football Player Props.

🔮 Lions-Colts just got more interesting. Matt LaMarca identifies some Early Week 12 Betting Lines.

NFL BETTING

The New York Prop Exchange🏈🏛️—Collins All Cars

Today’s running theme of me apparently being completely out of touch with the market continues into receiving props. I don’t know what to say. I went outside, touched some plant life, and still felt locked in. You know what that means … Attack!

As much as it pained me to paint that relatively negative picture of C.J. Stroud’s growth (or lack thereof), fair is fair. The numbers don’t lie. However, they can and often do lack context. I’m going to throw a crazy idea out there. Maybe, just maybe, having your No. 1 all-world wideout and BFF out there on the field with you helps. 

Let’s take a look at another set of Stroud splits from this year—just this time highlighting the difference in games with and without Nico Collins. You’ll notice they wind up looking eerily similar to the 2023 numbers we’re all yearning for.

C.J. Stroud Passing, Weeks 1-5 ➡️ Weeks 6-10

  • EPA/Attempt: +0.25 ➡️ +0.06

  • Completion Rate: 68.9% ➡️ 55.9%

  • Passer Rating: 98.2 ➡️ 78.5

  • Passing Yards Per Game: 277.0 ➡️ 197.2

  • Yards Per Attempt: 7.8 ➡️ 6.5

  • TD/INT: 4.0 ➡️ 1.7

  • Sack Rate: 7.3% ➡️ 11.6%

Starting to make sense yet? Especially considering Dallas’ particular shortcomings on defense, I couldn’t be more bullish on Collins tonight—the Cowboys are 31st or worse in opposer passer rating (105.1), yards per reception (12.6), and yards after the catch per reception (7.0). Expect Houston’s dynamic duo to pick at those scabs early and throughout.

And, oh yeah, not only has Nico Collins eclipsed tonight’s mark in every game this season, but he even managed to clear it in just nine snaps in Week 5 when he got hurt! 

SHARP HUNTER

The Sharps Like The Under Tonight

Source: Sharp Hunter

And then there was one. 

We wrap up Week 11 in the NFL season with the Cowboys hosting the Texans on Monday Night Football. 

At Sharp Hunter, we’re tracking sharp bets across the NFL. 

Every week. Every game. 

Dallas is a 7-point home favorite in a game with a 41 total—you can find 41.5 out there depending on where you’re betting. 

Looks like the sharps at Sharp Hunter are on the Texans -7 as we show at Two-Bag Sharp Score on the road favorite. 

I’m betting with the sharps here on Monday night. 

A quick DVOA check shows the Texans at No. 11 overall while the Cowboys sit at No. 27—the Cowboys have not been good and now we get the backup QB on Monday night. 

That backup QB is Cooper Rush. Action Network shows Cowboys HC Mike McCarthy 17-19 ATS when his QB is not named Dak Prescott, Brett Favre or Aaron Rodgers. Not a great spot for Rush here in prime time. 

Besides the ego of Jerry Jones, what is the motivation for the Cowboys here? The Texans have a real shot in the AFC while the Cowboys are headed for a solid draft pick and a likely coaching change. 

Seems like the public might be on the favorite on Monday night. And I can see the sharps are OK laying the points with the favorite in prime time. 

I can see a blowout here and for that reason—I’m betting with the sharps at Sharp Hunter and playing the Texans -7 on Monday Night Football.

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