🚀 Target These Big Hitters in Detroit!

Outright picks for the Rocket Mortgage Classic

June 26, 2024

The good news is, Scottie Scheffler isn’t playing; the bad news is, you have to bet someone other than Scottie Scheffler…

In today’s Betting Life newsletter presented by The Fantasy Life Magazine: 

  • PGA Rocket Mortgage: McNealy looks McPerfect for Detroit GC

  • Watercooler: The Knicks make their move

  • MLB Wednesday: Back the Mets in the Subway Series?

  • It’s 6/26. Take it away, Geoff Ulrich…

Wide Open. That’s the best way to describe the 2024 Rocket Mortgage Classic, an event played on a straightforward parkland course in Detroit Golf Club with a field devoid of any top 10 players.

Detroit GC does play over 7,300 yards, but because it has wider fairways, pros will be able to take out their driver on nearly every par 4 and par 5 this week and “let ‘er rip.” As a result, the average driving distance has been approximately 10-12 yards above TOUR average at Detroit GC, while driving accuracy stats have remained steadily above the norm as well.

What we’re left with is a course that tends to play shorter than its yardage and one that has been torn to shreds, on multiple occasions, by big hitters; mainly those who managed to combine their superior off-the-tee play with some timely putting.

The best example of this was Bryson DeChambeau in 2020, who, at the peak of his grip it and rip phase, won despite some wild divergence in his stats. The two-time US Open winner managed to overcome losing strokes on approach that season by gaining 6.7 strokes Off the Tee and another 7.8 strokes on the greens.

While we’ve seen players have success on Detroit GC without smashing the ball 350+ yards on every drive, it’s clear length does provide an advantage. Moreover, it can help players mask weaker approach games and allow them to take advantage of a softer course if their putts start to fall.

With this in mind, I’ve leaned towards bombers in the plays this week and specifically looked to target players who have had success at Detroit GC or similar-styled venues in the past.

  • Top 10 (+330; bet365) 

McNealy fits the prototype of past winners at Detroit Golf Club. He’s 15th in strokes gained off the tee and third in strokes gained putting (last 50 rounds), and he’s proven capable of going low when there are softer conditions.

A West Coast native who grew up playing on poa greens similar to the ones in play this week, McNealy has flashed upside at Detroit GC, posting a T8 at this venue in 2020. He’s also gone well at comparable venues like Silverado (T2 Fortinet Open 2021) and TPC Twin Lakes (T16 3M Open 2021) and has seen eight of his 13 career top 10s come on courses with poa greens or some kind of bentgrass/poa combo. 

His latest result, a T7 in Canada — where he gained over 2.0 strokes on approach and over 4.0 strokes putting — is also cause for optimism. With the 28-year-old available at 2x to 2.5x the market leaders, his fit for the course this week makes him an excellent target for both outright and placement bets.

Mitchell is another player who comes in primed to take advantage of this beneficial setup. The American gained 7.7 strokes tee to green in his last start in Canada and ranks first in strokes gained OTT stats and second in opportunities gained over the last 50 rounds. He’s been held back by the flatstick in 2024, but his last start in Canada saw him gain over 1.4 strokes putting on a course with bentgrass/poa greens similar to the ones we’ll see on Detroit GC. 

Mitchell pops off the page in almost every key stat, so if his confidence with the putter from Canada sticks, he’s the kind of player who could easily reach 20-under par or better. He doesn’t have much in terms of course history but did place T5 at another driver-heavy course in TPC Twin Lakes in 2023. Overall, he’s shown good upside on venues with lots of room off the tee. 

Mitchell doesn’t challenge as much as we all would like him to, but given the recent progression he’s shown, he’s not someone I'd want to leave out of the betting plans at this price. If he can find some range with his putter, this SHOULD be a week where he thrives and delivers his first big result of 2024.

🏈 The Brandon Aiyuk saga takes another turn. Rumors had Washington making a significant play for the star WR.

🤷 Florida won the Stanley Cup on Monday. Their reward? Walk Lord Stanley through Miami with no one caring.

🏆 For the first time since 2003, a player from the losing team won the Conn Smythe Trophy. The stats say it was the right decision. 

⛳ 15-year-old Miles Russell is teeing it up this week on the PGA. I didn’t even know how to use the dishwasher at that age.

🙎‍♀️ Cinderella is having trouble finding her Prince. Favorites winning it all have been the flavor of the day in sports.

📉 Will Zaccharie Risacher go first overall in the NBA draft? His odds tell the story.

🏀 The NBA Draft goes down tomorrow night. Get your full breakdown before the picks start flying. 

Wednesday is typically a great day for baseball, and this Wednesday is no exception. There’s plenty of action spread throughout the day, and Matt LaMarca is here to break down his favorite betting option…

The Mets have been scorching hot recently. They’ve won 14 of their past 18 games, and their offense has been the best in baseball over that stretch. That’s not an exaggeration: they lead the league in wRC+ during the month of June.

They erupted for nine runs in the first game of the Subway Series, and most of that damage came against a former Cy Young winner in Gerrit Cole. They’ll face another tough starter Wednesday in Luis Gil, but Gil is coming off a disastrous outing in his last start. The Orioles tagged him for seven runs in just 1.1 innings, so Gil doesn’t feel quite as unhittable as he did previously.

On the other side, the Mets will send Sean Manaea to the bump. Manaea is the definition of a league-average pitcher, but he at least benefits from being left-handed. The Yankees have been the best offense in baseball against right-handers this season, but they dip to 13th in wRC+ vs. southpaws.

We saw another Mets’ left-hander get the best of the Yankees hitters on Tuesday, and I like Manaea to follow suit. Fade Grimace at your own risk.