- Betting Life Newsletter
- Posts
- Take Care of No. 1
Take Care of No. 1
Overs early, Unders late
 | Aug. 26, 2024 |
PRESENTED BY |  |
I’ve been getting questions lately on balancing responsible bet size while keeping up with the Joneses on Twitter. Easy answer. In short, who cares? Ignore them—most are dirty, rotten scoundrels anyway. |  John Laghezza |
As far as shame regarding unit size? Do only what’s right for you—there is no minimum too low (I started with $1 MLB bets). Do not be embarrassed or have an ego. Over time, you’ll find honing these skills as important as analysis.
In today’s click-driven social media world, there’s a certain veneer over everything that must be dissolved. Who cares what anyone, especially some anonymous handle, thinks or says? Focus on treating your betting account like a small business. Take care of No. 1 and the rest will work itself out.
(Tell me that wasn’t worth the price of admission)
What else is in today’s newsletter?
Look Into My Crystal Ball
The New York Prop Exchange
NFL WEEK 1 BET |  |
Look Into My Crystal Ball 🔮—Josh Jacobs Jingleheimer Schmidt
If pictures are worth a thousand words, this newsletter’s about to hit new hyperlevels of efficiency.
With so much positive feedback on the charts (titles included this time), I‘m not fixing what isn’t broken.
Similar to the Pat Freiermuth prop from last week, the risk stays at half-mast. There’s still plenty of time to go before Week 1—and being (really, really) excited does not excuse being overleveraged. That in itself is probably a solid lesson for another day, but what matters right now is not digging too deep a hole before getting started.
Channeling one of our first betting building blocks—“overs early, unders late”—Week 1 player props are finally popping up on books. Call me stubborn. Everyone’s different but I’ve found once a player’s line moves a certain amount, I won’t want to wager even if I still like it. Long story long, this line is only moving in one direction so don’t wait.
As the self-proclaimed king of low expectations, I love this Josh Jacobs (our consensus RB13, for you fantasy folks out there) Week 1 receiving-yard line. To hit it he doesn’t have to be great, he just has to play—and Jacobs possesses true three-down ability featuring massive snap shares (below).
Despite Jordan Love’s seemingly low 16% RB-Target rate, he actually finished inside the top 10 in total attempts to RBs (below left), resulting in some nice production (below right).
Josh Jacobs isn’t LaDainian Tomlinson. With that out of the way, to get 14 yards through the air, you don’t have to be. And Jacobs has always chipped in via the receiving game (below).
With MarShawn Lloyd sidelined, only AJ Dillon is left to compete for targets—something he simply hasn’t proven to excel in (below).
The Pack will be dogs on the road against a prolific Eagle offense—so we may see pedals to the metal from the jump. We could hit this on the first drive. Even if we don’t, it’s live until the very last drive with a chance to hit on a single play against late shell coverages from the two-minute offense.
THE BET: Josh Jacobs Over 13.5 Receiving Yards (-110) in Week 1
FantasyLife+ has betting tools?
Yeah, it does.
FantasyLife+ Tier 2 houses the full suite of Fantasy Life’s betting tools, including projections, game models, player props, parlay calculators, and a whole lot more.
Be on the lookout for more betting product launches as we approach Week 1 of the NFL season, too!
Get a head start on fantasy football draft season and start prepping for college football and NFL betting season with FantasyLife+.
Get Tier 2 for under $9 per month.
MLB BETTING |  |
The New York Prop Exchange ⚾️🏛️—Duran, Duran: Hungry Like The Wolf
Tonight the Blue Jays head south from America’s top hat for the friendly confines of Fenway Park to face the Sox. Toronto’s starting José Berríos, a veteran inning-eater in a really tough matchup. Yes, I know the 30-year-old righty’s rolling (on paper) his last three GS. However, the competition was bottom tier and I’m looking to sell the rip.
I contend the year-to-date 3.79 ERA, 1.17 WHIP combo is misleading, after outperforming in the luck categories (82% LOB, .255 BABIP). But nature is slowly healing (below).
Nose forever in the spreadsheet, Berríos’ underlying metrics are terrifying (4.97 xERA, 12% K-BB, 42% HH, and .394 xwOBAcon). We need to head where the ball’s going, not where it’s been.
Boston's hit RHP well all year, especially frontman Jarren Duran. His 100 second-half PAs vs. RHP pop off the page and it continues tonight—.341 BA, 1.081 OPS, 12% Barrel, .353 xwOBA, 5 HR. Toronto’s bullpen and its 5+ ERA happen to stink as well, so we have an out if we don’t strike early.
Lastly, Duran happens to have very strong BvP stats against Berríos (4-for-11 with a double and 2 HR)—but please don’t tell anyone I’m citing this stuff or I’ll lose street cred.
THE BET: Jarren Duran O1.5 Total Bases (-125)
AROUND THE WATERCOOLER |  |
The latest analysis and insights from our merry band of sports betting nerds:
BIG NEWS! You can now stream three Fantasy Life shows on FAST platforms that distribute Fubo Sports
👀 Claudia Bellofato, Matthew Freedman, and Matt LaMarca deliver their favorite QB picks for the 2024 NFL season.
It’s time for some Travis Kelce novelty props, Cooter Doodle’s version.
Find out who Matthew Freedman is picking as his favorite to win Super Bowl 59.
Geoff Ulrich drives his early bet and course preview for the 2024 PGA Tour Championship.
 | GET ACCESS TO ALL OF OUR PREMIUM BETTING TOOLS WITH FantasyLife+ |
FantasyLife+ is a next-generation fantasy football and sports betting product that allows users the ability to customize their experience to fit their exact needs. Email subscribers get a 10% discount with code FAMILY.