🏆 Super Bowl 58 Trends!

Those who do not learn history are doomed to repeatedly bet the wrong Super Bowl team …

In today’s Betting Life newsletter presented by Unabated:

The postseason bye has come and gone, so now it’s officially Super Bowl week!

I’m not a trends bettor, but I find that historical situational data helps me identify spots I should consider further.

Here are three Super Bowl-relevant trends that have my attention.

🐶 Patrick Mahomes: Total Eclipse

As great as he is, Chiefs QB Patrick Mahomes has been ordinary throughout his career as a favorite, at home, and in the regular season.

• Favorite: 50-49-2 ATS (-1.9% ROI) | 79-22 ML (5.8% ROI)

• Home: 28-29-1 ATS (-4.5% ROI) | 45-13 ML (0.8% ROI)

• Regular Season: 48-45-3 ATS (0.6% ROI) | 74-22 ML (10.4% ROI)

But he has been exceptional — a true betting legend — as an underdog, away from Arrowhead Stadium, and in the playoffs.

• Underdog: 10-1-1 ATS (71.4% ROI) | 9-3 ML (85.3% ROI)

• Road/Neutral: 32-21-2 (16.9% ROI) | 43-12 ML (28.4% ROI)

• Postseason: 12-5 ATS (35.8% ROI) | 14-3 ML (35.6% ROI)

For the Super Bowl, the Chiefs are +2 neutral underdogs, so all three of Mahomes’ edges are aligned.

The result: Total eclipse.

• Postseason Road/Neutral Dog - ATS: 3-0 | 91.3% ROI | +7.2 margin

• Postseason Road/Neutral Dog - ML: 3-0 | 136.7% ROI | +4.3 margin

Mahomes as a postseason dog outside of Kansas City: This is the exact spot in which the betting market has historically been most wrong about him.

🔴 Andy Reid vs. Kyle Shanahan

Three times have the Chiefs and 49ers faced off under HCs Andy Reid and Kyle Shanahan, including Super Bowl 54.

The results have skewed heavily toward the Chiefs.

• Reid vs. Shanahan - ATS: 3-0 | 92.6% ROI | +11.5 margin

• Reid vs. Shanahan - ML: 3-0 | 69.0% ROI | +14.3 margin

In all three games, Shanahan has had QB Jimmy Garoppolo, so it’s not as if the sample is tainted by Nick Mullens, C.J. Beathard, or Brian Hoyer.

With the best pre-Brock Purdy QB of his 49ers tenure, Shanahan has been soundly and consistently beaten by Reid, losing every game by more than 10 points with an average of more than 14.

Maybe Purdy will make the difference this game … but maybe not.

👍 Non-No. 1 Seeds in Super Bowl?

The 49ers entered the postseason as a No. 1 seed and were generally expected to make the Super Bowl.

The Chiefs, though, were road underdogs in each of the past two games, and now they’re dogs once again.

They didn’t enter the postseason with premier seeding.

What has traditionally happened in the Super Bowl when a non-No. 1 seed has faced a top team?

• Non-No. 1 Seed vs. No. 1 Seed - ATS: 6-3 | 29.4% ROI | +5.83 margin

• Non-No. 1 Seed vs. No. 1 Seed - ML: 6-3 | 63.3% ROI | +3.89 margin

It’s not because of these trends that I’m betting on the Chiefs, but — yeah — I’m betting on the Chiefs.

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Super Bowl Sunday is nearly here, which means that there are ample opportunities for bettors to look for value in the prop market. Matt LaMarca highlights some of his favorite props for Chiefs-49ers.

💨 Christian McCaffrey Over 18.5 Carries (-115, BetMGM)

• Fantasy Life Projection: 19.9

• Play To: 18.5 (-125)

More than any week during the NFL season, it’s important to highlight your goals for the Super Bowl. If you’re simply aiming to have fun and maybe win a couple dollars, feel free to fire up as many long-shot props and SGPs as you please. However, my goal is to highlight plays that I think offer a mathematical edge. They might not be the most fun props on the board, but I’m shooting for maximum profitability.

That starts with McCaffrey.

I expect CMC to be extremely busy vs. the Chiefs on Sunday. He’s dealt with injuries over the past two weeks, but you wouldn’t know it from his utilization. He’s played on at least 92% of the snaps in both of the 49ers’ postseason contests, and he’s racked up nearly all of the RB opportunities. He has 37 carries over the past two weeks, while No. 2 RB Elijah Mitchell has four. Three of those four carries came on the final drive vs. the Lions, so the gap between McCaffrey and Mitchell has been big enough to drive a truck through.

This matchup also sets up perfectly for CMC. The Chiefs defense has been a massive run funnel this season, ranking third in dropback EPA but 28th in rushing EPA. For some reason, the Ravens chose not to exploit that weakness in the AFC Championship, but I don’t expect Kyle Shanahan to make the same mistake. He’s known for his conservative nature, so McCaffrey should touch the ball early and often.

🎤 Patrick Mahomes 215+ Passing Yards & 15+ Rushing Yards (-140, DraftKings)

• Fantasy Life Projections: 235.5 & 25.6

• Play To: -150

I never thought I’d be playing a prop found in the “For the Swifties” tab on DraftKings, but here we are. Most of those props are ridiculous, but I can’t help that this one caught my eye. It’s an SGP with 215+ passing yards and 15+ rushing yards for Mahomes, and it’s priced pretty reasonably at -140.

The 215+ passing yards should pretty much be a walk in the park. Mahomes has now played in 17 career postseason contests, and he’s had at least 215 passing yards in 15 of them. That includes all three starts this year.

The rushing yards are a bit dicier, but he’s still had at least 15 in 11 of his 17 career postseason outings. Again, that includes all three postseason starts this season and eight of his past 10 playoff contests.

Overall, Mahomes has cleared both thresholds in 10 career postseason contests, including seven of his past 10 outings.

You won’t find a rushing prop this low for Mahomes on Super Bowl Sunday, with his traditional and alternate lines all starting at around 25. In implied probability, -140 translates to 58.3%, and I think this prop’s true odds are definitely above 60%. Thanks, Taylor.

💰 Need bets? All the Super Bowl 58 degeneracy you require in our Free NFL Tracker (+56.0 units on the season).

🏹 Everyone and their mother. Chiefs are dominating the early betting.

🏃 A Purdy good runner? Will Brock rock this over once again?

✍️ Speaking of props. Find all your early Super Bowl LVIII prop info here.

💍 The proposal. These bettors aren’t believers.

💀 A true legend. Who would have thought a guy named “ParlayPicker” was bad at betting?

🍄 Feeling good. Michael Buble’s NHL all-star game interview was one for the ages. 

😕 Sam Darnold. The 49ers quarterback? People are making this unreal bet and it has the books wary.

🌊 The sea was angry that day my friends. Chaos at Pebble Beach saw the AT&T Pro-Am shortened to 54 holes. 

The ramp-up to Super Bowl 58 officially starts this week, but that doesn’t mean we can’t still look at some of the other betting markets. Matt LaMarca breaks down some of his favorite NBA bets for Monday’s six-game slate.

✍️ Philadelphia 76ers (+1.5) vs. Dallas Mavericks (-108; DraftKings)

The 76ers are going to be without Joel Embiid for an extended period, but not all hope is lost in Philly. Tyrese Maxey returned to the lineup two games ago, and as long as they have Maxey, they’ll have a fighting chance.

He’s taken a massive step forward in his fourth professional season, averaging 26.2 points and 6.4 assists per game. His emergence has allowed the team to survive with Embiid off the floor: With Maxey on and Embiid off, the team has still managed a +6.1 Net Rating. Ultimately, this team is probably a bit undervalued without their star center.

They’ll take the floor as home underdogs vs. the Mavericks, but there’s a chance Dallas isn’t at full strength either. Luka Doncic and Maxi Kleber are both listed as questionable, while Dereck Lively II and Dante Exum remain out of the lineup.

✍️ Atlanta Hawks (+3.0) vs. Los Angeles Clippers (-110; DraftKings)

The Hawks are rolling. They’ve won four straight games during their current homestand, including wins over the Lakers, Suns, and Warriors. They survived a 60-point Steph Curry explosion in their last contest, so this team is playing significantly better of late.

They’ll get a favorable matchup from a scheduling standpoint on Monday. The Clippers are on the second leg of a back-to-back after spending Sunday in Miami, and this is the final contest on a seven-game road trip. They’ve won five of their previous six, but it wouldn’t be a surprise if they were looking forward to getting home. There’s even a chance that the team could rest one of their superstars after playing on Sunday.

Trae Young and Dejounte Murray have played their best basketball of the season recently, and they’ll give the Clippers all they can handle if they’re not 100% focused.

✍️ De’Aaron Fox Under 4.5 assists (-135; DraftKings)

Very rarely will you see a point guard with an assist prop of just 4.5, especially when they play for a dynamic offense like the Kings. That said, Fox’s assist under looks pretty tasty at 4.5 on Monday.

For starters, Fox is not your traditional point guard. He’s more of a scorer, with Domantas Sabonis taking the facilitating lead in recent games. Fox has handed out four assists or fewer in 10 of his past 15 games, including each of the past four.

The Cavs are also a brutal matchup. They’re second in the league in defensive efficiency, and they’ve also played at a below-average pace. Overall, they’re allowing the second-fewest assists per game.

Add it all up, and James McCool from Paydirt has Fox going under 4.5 dimes in more than 66% of his simulations. That’s more than enough to make under 4.5 a viable option at -135.