🗝️ Super Bowl 58 Key Matchups!

Super Bowl 58 will all come down to two non-QB superstars …

In today’s Betting Life newsletter presented by Buffalo Wild Wings:

In case you haven’t heard, there’s a big game coming up later this month: Super Bowl 58.

Chiefs. 49ers. Again.

Later in the newsletter, I highlight a couple of my favorite bets for the game. Here are my thoughts on the key offensive matchups for each team.

🏹 Chiefs: Travis Kelce vs. 49ers Pass Defense

As I noted in my Super Bowl fantasy favorites piece, Kelce this year had his most inefficient regular season ever (8.1 yards per target) and least productive season since 2016 (984 yards receiving).

Even so, Kelce in the playoffs is a different animal: He has a 30% target share this postseason. After resting in Week 18, he has been dominant with 23-262-3 receiving on 27 targets in the playoffs.

Since 2018, when QB Patrick Mahomes became the starter, Kelce has 133-1,516-18 receiving in 17 postseason games. Unreal.

With no other established pass catchers on the team, Kelce is more important than ever to the Chiefs. I expect them to give him as many targets as he can handle, especially because of the matchup.

No one is quite like Kelce, but TEs Trey McBride and Sam LaPorta are the guys most comparable to him of all the players the 49ers have faced since Week 11 — when they lost SS Talanoa Hufanga (knee, IR) — and they both went off on high target volume. 

• Trey McBride (Week 15): 10-102-0 | 11 targets

• Sam LaPorta (NFC Championship): 9-97-0 | 13 targets

Kelce … against a rookie backup. He legitimately might see 15 targets, and that makes sense: It’s hard to imagine the Chiefs winning without a big game from Kelce.

⛏️ 49ers: Christian McCaffrey vs. Chiefs Run Defense

Normally, running on early downs is a negative endeavor. This year, it has been for every NFL team — save the 49ers (0.107 EPA, No. 1 - per RBs Don’t Matter).

They’ve been elite on first and second downs in general, but their early-down rushing efficiency has truly been exceptional, thanks largely to HC Kyle Shanahan and McCaffrey as well as LT Trent Williams and TE George Kittle, both of whom are run-blocking monsters.

While I normally think it’s foolish for a team to lean as hard as possible into the running game, that’s what I expect the 49ers to do.

This year, on 2nd-and-short (1-2 yards) the 49ers have a -19% pass frequency over expected (PFOE) — even though that would be the perfect situation for them to let QB Brock Purdy challenge a defense downfield.

On 2nd-and-medium (3-7 yards) — when a more progressive play-caller might be inclined to pass — the 49ers have a -10% PFOE.

On 3rd-and-short — when lots of teams run the ball — the 49ers still manage to run more than most with a -6% PFOE.

In not one game this year have the 49ers employed a pass-heavy game script (per our Fantasy Life Utilization Report).

They’re going to run the ball, because that’s what they like to do.

And it makes sense, given that the Chiefs are No. 28 in defensive rush EPA (-0.026). They’re exploitable on the ground, and their defensive line will be thinner than usual without DT Derrick Nnadi (elbow, IR) and EDGE Charles Omenihu (knee).

But running the ball is a double-edged sword. If you’re successful, you can control the game and grind the clock down, but you’re unlikely to put as many points as possible on the scoreboard. And if you’re unsuccessful then you’ve forestalled your offense and possibly put your defense in poor field position.

If the 49ers are to win, it’s imperative that they have success when running — because the run game will likely be their default method of attack.

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Jason Scavone from Unabated looks at the different types of Super Bowl props available to bettors.

There's just one NFL game left to bet between now and September. But we can mourn that later. First, there's work to do.

The Super Bowl prop menu is a thing of beauty. It goes deeper than Reddit and wider than Wikipedia, and it's full of opportunities.

But first you need to know how to approach different prop types.

🖐️ The Super Bowl Prop Landscape

There are five different types of NFL props: Game, player, index, cross-sport and novelty. 

For recreational bettors, the data you use to make prop numbers can come from any number of widely available sources, like game logs or DFS projection sites. Professional bettors may spring for pricey data packages that can help them accurately price out plays that need information over a long time horizon, like the game props.

🤔 Game Props

Game props focus on non-player events. Will there be over 3.5 FGs made? Will there be a safety? How many fourth-down conversions will be made?

Over 3.5 FGs, for example, is +110 right now at DraftKings. One way to approach this bet would be to establish a baseline figure by looking at five years of data. Going back more than 1,000 games, we see over 3.5 FGs 37% of the time (or +170).

Things like weather and the quality of the kicker may cause you to deviate from baseline. 

If teams go for it more on fourth down, does that show up in the 3.5 FGs numbers? The answer is in the data.

🏈 Player Props

The tried-and-true prop plays you’ve been hitting all year. Player performance data matters when pricing these out but so does your idea of the game script.

Let’s say you expect the Chiefs to be playing from behind. That means it’s more likely Patrick Mahomes will be slinging it. At FanDuel, Travis Kelce’s number is 70.5 receiving yards at -110.

You need good projections — either your own or from another source — to enter into a simulator like the Unabated Prop Simulator in order to find what the fair price should be on your play.

Using projections of 6.75 receptions and 66.6 receiving yards, over 70.5 would be fairly priced at +153, according to the simulator. Shop for prices until you get one that fits your analysis, or pass altogether.

🎶 Novelty Props

Our last category is for the most recreational of rec bettors. Novelty props include things like the color of the Gatorade bath, who will win the coin toss, or the duration of the National Anthem. Proceed with caution. Sometimes people get inside information on these plays, sometimes info gets leaked, and sometimes they’re just terrible bets. No one’s saying don’t have fun, but know what you’re getting yourself into. 

💰 Looking for bets? … of course, you are. Bookmark our Free Tracker (+56.0 units).

👀 And while you’re at it, bookmark our free Pick’em Tracker, too. Geoff has his first Super Bowl play locked in.

🐙 You only score twice. The Super Bowl is here and that means the return of the NFL Octopus prop.

🤕 Down bad. If you have a Joel Embiid MVP ticket, this was not your week. 

👨🏽 This is what peak performance looks like. Your dad is about to put a licking on the 49ers. 

⛈️ A “significant atmospheric river” is headed to Pebble Beach this week. Good luck PGA pros.

🌳 Speaking of golf, the first Masters teaser dropped this week. Belinda Carlisle could bomb it.

👹 “Bah GAWD that’s Isiah Pacheco’s music!” This bettor is hoping to hear those words next Sunday. 

💀 Arthur Smith is the new Steelers OC. Light a candle for George Pickens and Diontae Johnson.

🟣 Purple drank. The first Gatorade odds are out. 

Every week, Matthew Freedman writes an article with some of his favorite bets for spread, totals, and moneylines. Here are a couple of them, which you can find (along with lots of other bets) in our 100% FREE bet tracker.

🏆 Chiefs +2 vs. 49ers (-110, Caesars)

• Projection: +1.4

• Logged Bet: +3 (-115)

Of all the bets I placed the week of the conference championships, the best one might’ve been Chiefs +3 (-115) vs. 49ers in the Super Bowl. Thank the gambling gods for the lookahead numbers.

I don’t see much value in the Chiefs in the current market, but I still lean in their direction.

One of these teams has QB Patrick Mahomes, who as an underdog is 10-1-1 ATS (71.4% ROI, per Action Network). The other team has an optimal path to victory via the ground game.

This is no disrespect to the 49ers. In fact, I’m higher on QB Brock Purdy than most non-49ers fans are.

But if their plan of attack is “let’s run the ball a lot,” that might limit their high-end ability to score — and that makes them vulnerable when Mahomes is facing a defense that at home just allowed 31 points to the Lions.

Mahomes as a dog against a coach with a history of conservative decisions and late-game collapses: Gotta go with the Chiefs in this spot.

⬇️ Chiefs-49ers Under 47.5 (-110, BeMGM)

• Projection: 46.7

• Logged Bet: 48 (-110)

I bet under 48 and still like it at 47.5.

We have two rush-flowing defenses that are top-eight against the pass but bottom-eight against the run. That’s likely to result in a ground-based attack that keeps the clock moving, especially for the 49ers offense — and then the Chiefs offense has underperformed expectations for much of the season.

All of that plays to the under, and the Chiefs have been the league’s most extreme under team this year: 14-6 (33.8% ROI).

And I also like the second-half under of 23.5 (-105, DraftKings), where the Chiefs are an outrageous 18-2 (73.7% ROI).

The 2H under trend for the Chiefs feels intuitive. They have a strong defense that can make halftime adjustments, but their offense is less capable of making meaningful changes.

If the Chiefs enter the third quarter with a lead, they have neither the ability nor the inclination on offense to pile on the points, and we saw that in the AFC Championship.

And if the Chiefs trail after two quarters, they’re vulnerable enough with their rush defense to allow opponents to run the clock and decrease the number of possessions in the game.

As much as I like under 47.5, I probably like 2H under 23.5 even more.