Sunday NFL Blitz, The Early Games

Wake up to London Calling and Big Matchups

October 11, 2024

Oct. 11, 2024
PRESENTED BY

THE BLITZ: Truly a man of the people (ONE OF US! ONE OF US!), the feedback on last week’s lightning-round floored me—so if it ain’t broke, why fix it?

An entire slate’s too much for one day and I don’t see you on Saturday, so let’s take this opportunity on Fridays to put pressure on the Sunday 1 p.m. slate (and the London game preceding it).

John Laghezza

JAX (1-4) vs. CHI (3-2) in London—Caleb Williams has hit 300+ passing yards in two of his last three games, and gets a Jacksonville defense that is second with 298 passing yards allowed per game. We could be looking at another big day for the No. 1 overall pick and his talented pass catchers.

HOU (4-1) at NE (1-4)—Drake Maye’s debut will inject hope into the Pats’ faithful, for a little while at least. It’ll be a tough hill to climb given the way these Texans throw disguised blitz packages at QBs and create hurries. The rookie’s likely going to be running for his life. 

WAS (4-1) at BAL (3-2)—Get your popcorn ready. Not sure there’s a more exciting story this year than the transformation of Dan Quinn’s Commanders with Jayden Daniels under center. Both defenses struggled to defend WRs at points, but maybe none worse than the Ravens. They’re battling the Jaguars in a race to the bottom for the NFL’s worst pass defense—so it’s no surprise this has the weekend’s highest implied total.

CLE (1-4) at PHI (2-2)—I’ve remained optimistic regarding Cleveland thus far, preaching patience for Deshaun Watson to wake up. That said, we must be getting close to the boiling point in this front office. If the Browns can’t move the ball against a gettable Eagles D, the clamoring for Jameis Winston may become too deafening to ignore. The Browns will have their hands full as well—A.J. Brown, DeVonta Smith, and Lane Johnson all practiced in full and are on track to return at 100%.

ARI (2-3) at GB (3-2)—The NFC is eating up all my TV’s attention lately. Just when it looked like the Cardinals could be bottoming out after a blowout by the Commanders, they turned around and beat the Niners on their turf. Expect Green Bay to run it early and often, looking to attack Arizona at its weakest point—the Cardinals give up 101.7 rushing yards per game to RBs.

TB (3-2) at NO (2-3)—If you ever need a testament to the influence of injuries hitting as performance regresses, it’s the Saints. Early Super Bowl favorites through two weeks, New Orleans dropped three straight (and looked bad doing it). Now Derek Carr is down and the Saints must turn toward fifth-round rookie Spencer Rattler to break the streak. NO has allowed 300+ passing yards in two of the last three, and you know Baker Mayfield is going to challenge that secondary again.

IND (2-3) at TEN (1-3)—Stoppable forces meet movable objects on all sides this Sunday. As one of Anthony Richardson’s biggest backers this summer, I’d be lying if I said I didn’t think Joe Flacco was operating more smoothly within Shane Steichen’s system. Also, it’s easy to dogpile on the Titans considering Will Levis’ propensity for disaster plays but I’m warning you—don’t shortchange the defense.

What else is in today’s newsletter?

  • The New York Prop Exchange

  • Look Into My Crystal Ball

NFL BETTING

Look Into My Crystal Ball🏈🔮—Josh Jacobs Jingleheimer Schmidt

I laid out the opening statement for my theory of the case above, but it’s simple enough. Green Bay is playing great, winning three of its last four with Packer Nation’s eyes on a deep playoff run. The key to the Packers’ success relies on the offense, and in this case their main function may be keeping the defense off the field.

GB’s already 7th in rush rate (50.8%), and I’d be fine projecting multiple ticks above that. Josh Jacobs has the 5th most rush attempts in the NFL, averaging just over 80 rush yards per game with above-average efficiency stats—0.7 RuYd Over Expectation/Attempt, 3.38 YAC/Attempt, 9.0% explosive rush rate. I’ve also always been a fan of Matt LaFleur’s creativity expressed through his diverse run scheme (below).

Courtesy of NextGenStats

The Cardinals’ defensive struggles at the point of attack are real. Arizona is bottom 5 in yards/play, drive distance, defensive rush success rate, and rush yards per game (below). They’ve actually allowed six different RBs to clear this bar in only five games—two RBs from the same team have eclipsed it twice in the same game!

(And just in case confirmation bias is your thing, our aggregate custom player projections have Jacobs going over as a mean outcome.)

THE BET: Josh Jacobs Over 66.5 Rush Yards (-115) FanDuel

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AROUND THE WATERCOOLER

The latest analysis and insights from our merry band of sports betting nerds:

☕️ Share your morning cup of joe with Thor Nystrom, Coach Gene Clemons, and Eric Froton. The Week 7 College Football Pregame Show, kicks off Saturday at 10 a.m. ET.

🔮 Josh Allen is going over where? Freedman looks ahead on these Week 6 NFL props.

🏈 Who’s ready to score? Come here for Week 6 Anytime TD Bets.

🥊 Fight Night: Royval vs. Taira highlight our best bets for Saturday’s card.

 

NFL BETTING

The New York Prop Exchange🏈🏛️—Knight of Allgeier

We’re running long so I’ll be quick as a bunny, or I guess a falcon in this case. Bijan Robinson fan club members should probably plug their ears.

Every week, Tyler Allgeier continues to swallow up more of Atlanta’s backfield carry share (below), and he’s earned it. ATL’s backup RB has outperformed Bijan in yards/rush, rush yards over exp., rush success rate, yards before and after contact per rush, EPA/Rush, and explosive rush rate.

And then Bijan Robinson popped up on the injury report (check our Inactives Tool Sunday morning), basically sealing the deal for me. Oh, and we get the backdoor possibility of garbage-time carries against a battered and beaten Panthers interior D.

THE BET: Tyler Allgeier Over 37.5 Rush Yards (-110) BET365

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