Sunday Blitz 2.0:

Week 6 notes for the late games ...

October 13, 2024

Oct. 13, 2024

PRESENTED BY

THE AFTERNOON BLITZ: First, I’d like to welcome all of our new subscribers—the feeling of reaching out to so many of you is truly surreal. Well, one good turn deserves another, people so let’s not waste a moment. I’ll pick up right where we left off on Friday with a lightning round-take for each game on the 4:00 PM slate.

First-time readers can check it out here. To everyone else—a heartfelt thanks for joining us as always.

Enjoy the games, enjoy the day … and when we’re with the book, enjoy the pay!

John Laghezza

LAC (2-2) at DEN (3-2)—Prepare for a real snoozefest as the 3-2 Broncos … wait. The Broncos have three wins? Like more than the Cincinnati Bengals and Jacksonville Jaguars combined? In case you can’t see the ridiculous look on my face, the answer is yes—proving once again, that defense wins NFL games. And it can’t be the offense, as Denver’s tied for 29th in TDs, mainly because rookie QB Bo Nix has the stone-cold worst EPA/dropback in the NFL. They’ll be facing their division-rival Chargers, doing their own part to turn the clock back to 1955. The Bolts rank dead last in plays run, first downs, and pass rate. The total for this game currently sits at 35.5. Woof.

PIT (3-2) at LV (2-3)—Two teams with QB issues, seemingly trying to remain functional but somehow staying alive in the win column face off in Vegas Sunday. I can’t say I’m excited for much—other than watching to see how Justin Fields responds to a very heavy blitz and pressure scheme from Las Vegas. He’s shown a propensity for taking sacks or making errant throws under pressure in the past, and Mr. Unlimited just finished his sandwich on the sideline, ready to roll.

ATL (3-2) at CAR (1-4)—Can’t find two teams with more disparate sudden trajectory changes than the Falcons and Panthers. Saying Atlanta hit its groove feels like an understatement. Kirk Cousins seemed to complete his comeback from injury in a historic 509-yard Week 5 performance. On the flip side, things got bad enough for Andy Dalton and Carolina last week they actually played Bryce Young. On purpose. Carolina’s also tracking to miss multiple starters on defense, so I’d honestly be surprised if this line doesn’t get to 7 by kickoff.

DET (3-1) at DAL (3-2)—Is it me or is the NFC hogging up all the marquee games lately? The Bills, Bengals, and Jaguars stink. Kansas City’s 5-0 sure, but look me in the eye and tell me you’re impressed by the offense. Anyway, this is what the regular season is all about—two above-.500 teams with talent and roster depth expected to put some points on the board. Sounds non-committal but I think whoever makes the last big play wins.

CIN (1-4) at NYG (2-3)—A home underdog on Sunday Night Football? That’s the Giants as a 3.5-point underdog hosting the Bengals without rookie sensation Malik Nabers (concussion) for a second straight game. The Bengals have scored 33-plus points over the past three games, and given up 24 or more points in the past four games. Get ready for evening fireworks.

What’s in today’s newsletter?

Look Into My Crystal Ball
The New York Prop Exchange

NFL BETTING

Look Into My Crystal Ball🏈🔮—Love The Drake!

There’s finally some cause for excitement in Foxborough with the debut of Drake Maye, but it won’t be lasting if a top-tier Texans D has anything to say about it. Betting sports long enough will properly humble anyone over time so I’m always wary of being this disparate from the market—but I’ve got misprices all over this one (AKA sports betting’s most famous last words).

Frankly, this iteration of the Texans is in a different stratosphere talent and scheme-wise than the Patriots in all phases—not to mention rookie QB debuts generally produce disastrous results. Anyway, I honestly had a hard time narrowing this down to my two favorite spots (you can always follow me on X @JohnLaghezza for the whole enchilada). So I stuck with the bets that are the most game-script independent—that is to say, my expected success rate doesn’t swing wildly whether ahead or behind.

Let’s start with Houston’s defense under second-year head coach DeMeco Ryans, who’s done a wonderful job thus far. They’re top-5 in a wide array of defensive stats: plays allowed, yards per game, yards per play, drive distance, time of possession per drive, completion rate, total completions, passing yards per game, and tackle success. And while the Texans play 99% of snaps with five or more DBs on the field, they do a tremendous job of dialing up disguises, shifting between man and zone.

Since Houston is so good at efficiently turning blitzes into hurries and sacks, it flushes QBs outside of the pocket—their 32 rush yards allowed per game to QBs is T-28th worst. Expect Maye to be running early and often. He averaged right around 44 yards per game with his legs through his final two years in CFB and it’s not like his O-line’s about to do him any favors, ranking dead last in QB pressure rate allowed (below).

THE BET: Drake Maye Over 26.5 Rush Yards (-120; FanDuel)

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WEEK 6 NFL PROPS

The New York Prop Exchange 🏈🏛️—Stefon Diggs Deep

We’ve covered a few aspects of today’s Houston at New England game and haven’t mentioned my favorite non-Jet in the game, C.J. Stroud. Without ranting off on a tangent about this future Hall of Famer, the Texans are being sold wildly short today. The conservative first-down play calling that constantly stunted scoring drive success for Houston is trending in the right direction onto the positive side of average (below). Baby steps.

Then just listen carefully … that sucking sound you hear is 25% of Houston’s targets being vacated with the Nico Collins hamstring injury. As expected, Stefon Diggs assumed the alpha role in the aerial attack, leading the team in everything—snaps, routes, targets, catches, air yards, and receiving yards. The most interesting thing I noticed was the Texans’ reluctance to force-fit Diggs into Collins’ X-role and instead continue his versatile utilization to create mismatches (below). Diggs racked up 4 catches for 47 yards from the slot after Collins departed.

Then there’s the 2024 Patriots’ D, still apparently commanding residual respect from the Belichick era. New England’s been particularly soft against the pass over the middle, allowing 9+ catches and 95+ yards per game to the slot alone.

Expect Diggs to anchor the offense, earning targets early and often.

THE BET: Stefon Diggs Over 5.5 Receptions (-115) BET365