What is in today’s newsletter?

1. A favorite and a longshot to target for the men’s Olympic Golf event… One American stands out above the rest

2. Matt LaMarca breaks down his favorite MVP targets. Fins Up!

3. NCAA Football Preview: CUSA Conference bets anyone?

2024 Olympic Golf Betting Breakdown

by Geoff Ulrich

🦅 Collin Morikawa Outright (+1200; bet365)

Morikawa sets up nicely for this week’s more technical setup. A winner in brutal conditions at the Florida-based Concession Golf Club back in 2021, and a former Open Champion, the 27-year-old should benefit from Le Golf National’s treacherous routing, which typically rewards elite approach play. 

The American comes in ranked top five in GIR’s gained, Fairways Gained, SG: Approach, and SG: Putting over the last 24 rounds, and has been a factor at all four majors; landing a T16 at the recent Open Championship and a T14 at the US Open in June. While he’s gone winless on the season, Morikawa has been adept at tackling courses outside of the USA over his career, landing wins at Royal St. George’s, in his first-ever Open Championship appearance; the Earth Course, in Dubai for the DP World Championships; and at Accordia Golf Narashino Country Club in Japan, during last fall’s Zozo Championship. 

A near medalist in Toyko back in 2021, when he was part of a wild seven-man playoff for the bronze medal, Morikawa will certainly have his sights set on avenging that loss in Paris. His form is similar to that of the last two winners of this event and, like both Xander Schauffele and Justin Rose, he comes in still seeking his first win of the calendar year. 

Given the format (60 players, no cut), I’d have no problem playing Morikawa down to +1,200 as we’ve seen him go off at similar prices against larger and more difficult fields in recent weeks. 

🍁 Nick Taylor Each-Way 1/5 Top 3 (+27500; bet365)

• Top 10 (+850; FanDuel)

• Top 20 (+250; FanDuel)

Taylor is another veteran who should benefit from Le Golf National’s setup. A precision iron player with one of the best short games in golf, the 36-year-old has already posted wins at similar venues like Pebble Beach and TPC Scottsdale. 

The Canadian enters this week having missed the cut at the Open Championship but trending well with his ball striking. He gained over 3.1 and 2.8 strokes on approach at the Travelers and Scottish Open, respectively, and was positive with his irons again at the Open, gaining over 3.0 strokes on approach in Round 1. His putting has been terrible of late, but he’s shown the ability to spike hard on the greens when he’s dialed in, gaining 4.5 strokes putting at the PLAYERS in March and 8.9 strokes at TPC Scottsdale in February. 

Taylor comes with some warts, but at +27500 (bet365) for a top-3 each-way, he’s not a player I’m willing to pass on at that price. Given how well the four-time PGA winner has performed under pressure the last two seasons (two playoff victories), and how well he sets up for Le National, I also like taking advantage of his current odds by laddering him in the top 10 (down to +700) and top 20 (down to +200) markets.  

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2024 NFL MVP Betting Preview

by Matt LaMarca

🤠 Dak Prescott (+2000; FanDuel)

As Geoff mentions in the article (NEEDS LINK), there are really only a handful of players who can win MVP each year. If you focus only on players who are quarterbacks for the best teams in football, it’s not that hard to land on the potential winner. It’s an award where you typically don’t want to go too far down the leaderboard, but guys in the +2,000 to +4,000 range are certainly in play.

Prescott checks all the boxes for me entering 2024-25. He was in contention for the award last season, leading the league in completions and touchdown passes but ultimately finishing as the runner-up. If not for a pair of late-season losses to the Bills and Dolphins, Prescott could’ve won the award.

The Cowboys are once again expected to be one of the best teams in the NFC. Their preseason win total sits at 9.5, trailing only the 49ers, Eagles, and Lions. The Cowboys have also clearly become Prescott’s team. The days of Ezekiel Elliott and Tony Pollard siphoning touches from him are in the past. Dallas was sixth in Pass Rate Over Expectation last year, so they let Prescott air it out a bunch.

In addition to the volume, Prescott also has the efficiency. He was second in EPA + CPOE composite last year, trailing only Brock Purdy and the vaunted 49ers’ offense. We’ve already seen Purdy get a lack of respect in this market, so Prescott basically clears the field in this category.

With a bona fide stud to lean on in CeeDee Lamb, Prescott has literally everything going for him. The only knock on him is his postseason track record, but the MVP is a regular-season award. A +2,000 bet feels generous.

🐬 Tua Tagovailoa (+2500; BetMGM)

Tagovailoa is another player we’ve seen MVP-caliber production from in the past, so it’s not a huge stretch to think he can do it again. He helms one of the most potent offenses in NFL history, and he led the league with more than 4,600 passing yards last season.

There were two big knocks on his MVP candidacy last season. The first was his 29 touchdown passes, which put him below the top tier of quarterbacks. However, the Dolphins had an extreme imbalance in terms of rushing vs. passing touchdowns. Raheem Mostert had 6.5 rushing touchdowns above expected last year (per PFF), while De’Von Achane was at +4.4. That’s 11 touchdowns more than you’d expect for their top two running backs, which could potentially get filtered to the passing game in 2024-25.

The second knock is that Tagovailoa is extremely reliant on Tyreek Hill. Hill finished above Tagovailoa in MVP voting last year, racking up 1,799 receiving yards and 13 touchdowns. He’s one of the top offensive weapons in football, so it’s not surprising that he was responsible for a huge chunk of Tagovailoa’s production.

However, the Dolphins’ passing attack should be a bit more balanced this season. Jaylen Waddle should see more production with better health, and the addition of Odell Beckham Jr. doesn’t hurt. Hill isn’t going away, but don’t be surprised if the production is a bit more spread out for Miami in 2024-25.

Tagovailoa still has to prove that he can produce in colder weather, but he’s capable of racking up stats with the best of them. At a minimum, this ticket gives us some hedge opportunity if he gets off to another fast start.

The latest analysis and insights from our merry band of football nerds:

🗽 Our NCAA Football Previews continue to drop. Can Liberty dominate the CUSA once again?

💰 The White Sox losing streak hit 15 games yesterday. In other news, betting against bad teams is extremely profitable.

🥉 The US women’s rugby team shocked powerhouse Australia for the bronze. It was a Cinderella story that paid off big time for bettors.

😴 Super Sleepers from the first week of training camp. Overzet sets you up to be ahead of the game on five rookie standouts.

👎 Thou shalt not murder, thou shalt not steal, thou shalt not DM athletes about your bets. Seriously, no one cares.

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