📈 Stock Up, Stock Down

We’ve made some BIG adjustments to our power ratings over three weeks…

In today’s Betting Life newsletter presented by BetMGM:

The NFL is a “small sample” sport by necessity: 17 games, that’s it.

That means we need to be aggressive, perhaps more than we’d want to be, in moving off of our prior assumptions and adjusting our forward-looking expectations for teams.

With that in mind, here are some thoughts on the teams I’ve adjusted up or down in my ratings by at least two points as well as some notes on several teams who just missed the two-point cut. (Remember, I tend to be slow in making massive adjustments. Ed Feng has written about the value of preseason priors even into Week 6.)

✈️ Jets: +3.5 to -3.75 (-7.25 points)

As I mentioned in the Week 3 Thursday Betting Life newsletter, the market has not adjusted enough to compensate for the radical difference between QB Aaron Rodgers (Achilles, IR) and backup Zach Wilson, who is No. 33 in AY/A (3.9), QBR (26.7, per ESPN), and composite EPA + CPOE (-0.012, per RBs Don’t Matter).

On top of that — and perhaps more troubling — is the defense: It’s not elite. At least it hasn’t been through three weeks. Last year, the Jets were Nos. 3 & 6 in defensive SR (41.4%) and EPA (-0.045). This year, they’re Nos. 15 & 20 (42.5%, -0.004).

If the Jets are terrible on offense and underperforming on defense, what does this team have going for it?

🐏 Rams: -2.5 to -0.25 (+2.25 points)

In having the Rams at only -2.5 entering the season, I was probably higher on them than most in the industry, and I’ve continued to stay ahead of the market: Inpredictable has them at -2.3 while Ben Baldwin has them at -2.4.

But evidently, I’m not as high as some: Rufus Peabody of Unabated has the Rams at +1.01 in his Massey-Peabody Power Ratings. Given Rufus’ success, there’s no one else’s power ratings I might trust more than his.

I imagine that I will continue to move the Rams up more power ratings throughout the coming weeks: They’re No. 9 in offensive EPA (0.033) and a respectably subpar (vs. atrociously abominable) No. 21 in defensive EPA (0.001).

🐻 Bears: -2 to -4.25 (-2.25 points)

I now have the Bears as my No. 30 team in the power ratings, and it’s not hard to imagine them at No. 32 in another 1-2 weeks.

They’re already No. 32 in the ESPN Football Power Index (-6.3), numberFire Team Rankings (-9.05), Jeff Sagarin’s NFL Ratings (13.63), and Massey-Peabody (-6.14).

I expected nothing from the Bears on defense, and they have delivered, ranking No. 31 in EPA (0.194), but I did expect something from QB Justin Fields as an ascending and playmaking third-year first-round player. I thought there was only so low I could rate a team who had a QB with upside to make a Lamar Jackson-like leap.

I seem to have been wrong in my evaluation of Fields, who is dead last in QBR (21.0, No. 34). Maybe it’s not his fault…

…but I’m skeptical the problem will be fixed this season.

🐬 Dolphins: +2.25 to +4 (+1.75 points)

They’re already No. 1 at ESPN (+10.2). As long as QB Tua Tagovailoa stays healthy, they will likely be a force. Thoughts and prayers for this family.

🐅 Bengals: +4.75 to +3 (-1.75 points)

They will likely improve — but QB Joe Burrow (calf) is surprisingly No. 34 in composite EPA + CPOE (-0.025), and this team goes as he goes.

🧀 Packers: -3 to -1.25 (+1.75 points)

QB Jordan Love hasn’t been perfect, but he’s No. 6 in QBR (69.2) and No. 8 in AY/A (7.8). The Packers can win with him.

💪 Titans: -3.5 to -1.75 (+1.75 points)

They ran into a potentially all-time great defense last week…

…but in Weeks 1-2 they lost to the Saints by one point and beat the Chargers by three points in overtime. Under HC Mike Vrabel, the Titans seem likely to play their opponents tight almost regardless of matchup.

⚔️ Buccaneers: -4.75 to -3 (+1.75 points)

QB Baker Mayfield has been good through three weeks, ranking No. 11 in composite EPA + CPOE (0.118), and the Buccaneers still have an average-at-worst defense (-0.043 EPA, No. 15).

They have a real chance to compete for the NFC South.

Using video games to aid your sports betting process? Seriously? Seriously. Using Madden Ratings in betting may not be as far-fetched as it sounds, and Jason Scavone from Unabated is here to explain…

“If it’s in the game, it’s in the game”

Old-school Madden players know that ancient EA slogan. At the time, it meant if something happened on the football field, it would be represented on your Sega Genesis. (We’re more “ancient school” than “old school.”)

But now that we’re well and thoroughly into the Matrix (references inching closer to the smartphone and social media era!) you could flip that on its head. If it’s in Madden, it’s a more accurate description of football than what you get listening to a broadcast.

That is to say: when it’s early in the season, Madden team and player ratings can go a long way to setting up your power ratings.

First the why, then the how.

🎮 As in, Madden Madden?

Yep. The one with Josh Allen on the cover and everything. And we’re going to use it to bet real money on actual sports. Hopefully to win money. Money we could use to buy Madden. You see how it all ties together.

First, a little bit on why you might want to use this approach.

Most power rating systems use previous game results, market-based ratings (ie. using look-ahead betting lines to quantify a team’s relative strength), or a combination of both. They get better as the season goes on because we learn more about each team every week.

But by using Madden ratings you can build a ground-up system. It uses each individual player as an input to the overall power rating.

Pseudonymous author Pokerjoe sums it up in his tremendous sports betting book, Sharper:

“They are amazingly important to a lot of football fans and very, very closely followed by the most important people of all in this respect: NFL players themselves. Madden’s feet are to the fire on this issue. Fans and players care about their ratings, so EA Sports cares. It shows.”

The player ratings, which you can get here, are going to be quality.

You don’t need EA to tell you Patrick Mahomes, at a 99, is one of a handful of the very best players in the NFL. But how good are you at quantifying the importance of an injury to Isaiah Rodgers or Romeo Doubs to the point spread?

These individual player ratings allow you to build team ratings in a way that lets you objectively quantify player and team value.

💎 A Thursday Night Game Ripe with Opportunity

Two of the NFC's oldest divisional rivals collide…

The Lions and Packers square off TONIGHT in an early battle for the NFC North.

With so much excitement for kickoff, it's only right that you prioritize getting in on the action and scoring a touchdown of your own with BetMGM.

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Thanks to BetMGM, you can bet on the game without worrying about sweating your first bet.

PLUS - BetMGM is now LIVE in Kentucky! That means new users in the state of Kentucky can sign up to get $1,500 paid back in bonus bets on their first bet for Thursday Night Football…talk about perfect timing.

Speaking of first bets, Geoff Ulrich has you covered for tonight.

Geoff is Betting: Luke Musgrave anytime TD (+240)

“The Detroit Lions are in town which means it’s a good time to seek out the opposing TE and play for a big day. The Lions numbers against opposing TEs are pretty staggering (in a bad way) to this point. They’ve allowed 6 more targets to the position than any other team in the league, 3 more catches and 61 more yards. Last week, another young, athletic TE in Kyle Pitts (5 rec, 41 yards) got behind coverage in the middle of the field and was gone for a 50+ yard TD – if he hadn’t been overthrown by Desmond Ridder.

Musgrave may not be Kyle Pitts, but he’s talented. The rookie saw his usage go up in Week 3 posting a 19% target share and 86% route participation rate. Christian Watson being back in the lineup may not be a bad thing for Musgrave either.”

📏 He’s a high school math teacher, so numbers are his second language. Let’s see if he can stay hot!

✍️ Reinforcements were called for Week 4. Best Bets (with fewer unders than usual!)

🏀 And now something for the NBA fans! The Bucks make a splash to become title-betting favorites. 

📺 How to build sports betting models: Excel basics for people who know nothing but want to learn something.

💰 Offensive pass and run funnels to attack! Not just for fantasy but also for that sweet, sweet prop betting.

☠️ Clev TA calls his shot — and I can definitely see it: A look into the crystal ball...

🐬 The Dolphins have absolutely crushed … while being very injured. If healthy, they’d be 4-0 through three weeks.

🧠 He’s a smart dude, he went to Stanford, he might have a point. This doesn’t seem fair... 

🌽 Maybe we can build this into a sports betting model. Iowa TEs continue to crush in the NFL.

⬇️ Speaking of which, 99% of bets (per John Ewing) on Lions TE Sam LaPorta’s ReYd prop are on the over (42.5). Find out which side the demented Freedman is on.

Week 4 kicks off TONIGHT with an NFC North matchup between the Packers and Lions. Matt LaMarca is here to break it all down from a betting angle…

Week 3 is officially in the books, and we’re starting Week 4 with a classic NFC North showdown. The Lions will travel to Green Bay to take on the Packers in a game that could have serious playoff implications. Both of these teams are 2-1 on the year, and they’re considered the frontrunners in the division.

The Lions are currently priced at -105 to win the North on BetMGM, while the Packers are +160.

This will be an opportunity for the Packers to extract a bit of revenge after the Lions kept them out of the postseason in 2022. All Green Bay needed to do was win in the final week of the season, but they ultimately couldn’t get the job done.

It was only the third time the Packers missed the postseason in the previous 13 years, while the Lions will be looking to return to the playoffs for the first time in six seasons.

Who can grab the early division lead with a win on Thursday? Let’s dive in.

🦁 Detroit Lions at Green Bay Packers

• Spread: Lions -1.5 (-110, BetMGM)

• Total: 45.5

• Moneylines: Lions -125/Packers +105

This line has seen a bit of movement throughout the week, oscillating somewhere between Lions -2.0 and Lions -1.0. It’s currently settled at Lions -1.5, but the final number will likely be inconsequential.

When the spread is this small, there’s a very good chance that the team that wins the game will ultimately cover: less than 8% of NFL games from 2003 to 2020 were decided by less than a field goal.

With that in mind, this game is less about the spread and more about which team we think can emerge victorious.

I am a firm believer that the Lions are the superior squad.

Offensively, the Lions were a really good team last season. They were fourth in yards per game and fifth in points, and they’re off to another strong start this season. Their scoring is down a bit, but they’ve racked up the eighth-most yardage through the first three weeks.

Jared Goff continues to impress as the Lions’ starting quarterback. He ranks sixth among signal-callers in EPA + CPOE composite, trailing only Tua Tagovailoa, Brock Purdy, Justin Herbert, Josh Allen, and Patrick Mahomes. That’s pretty elite company.

Additionally, the Lions’ defense seems improved in 2023. The team made improving the secondary a priority during the offseason, and it’s paid dividends to start the year. They’re 13th in EPA/play allowed after ranking 31st in that department last year.

On the other side, it’s hard to get a good read on the Packers.

Even though they’re 2-1, it’s hard to classify what they’ve done as impressive. They put together a monster showing vs. the Bears, but everyone has lit up the Bears so far this season. They followed that up with just 224 total yards vs. the Falcons, and they ultimately trailed the Saints by 17 points in the fourth quarter before engineering an improbable comeback. The fact that Derek Carr left that game with an injury certainly didn’t hurt.

Overall, the Packers’ offense is eighth in points per game but just 22nd in yardage. That kind of discrepancy suggests some potential regression coming in the future.

Defensively, the Packers have been about as good as the Lions this season. They’re 14th in EPA/play allowed, albeit against a much softer schedule. While the Lions have had dates with the Chiefs and Seahawks, the Packers have had to deal with the Falcons, Bears, and Saints. None of those teams currently ranks in the top half of the league in EPA/play.

The big x-factor is the injury report. The Packers were without a host of key players in Week 3: David Bakhtiari, Jaire Alexander, Christian Watson, and Aaron Jones. Alexander, Watson, and Jones all got in limited practices on Tuesday, so it’s possible that they return to the lineup vs. Detroit. However, Bakhtiari picked up a DNP, so his status is a bit less rosy.

The Lions also have plenty of injury issues, but their practice report looks a lot more promising. Only three players were DNPs on Tuesday, and one of them was a fullback. If running backs don’t matter, I have a hard time believing that fullbacks do.

Add it all up, and I think the Lions are the correct side here.