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⏰ It All Starts Now
The NBA and NHL Playoffs commence
There are two types of people — those who love postseason hockey and basketball and those who are wrong.
In today’s Betting Life newsletter, presented by BetMGM:
NBA Playoffs: Can the defending champs dispatch the Lakers?
NFL Draft: The Jayden Daniels saga takes a turn
NHL Playoffs: The Rangers should shine in round one
It’s 4/20. Take it away, Matt LaMarca…
To quote the legendary Bruce Buffer – it’s time.
The NBA postseason has arrived. The end of the regular season can be a slog, but the postseason is the pot of gold at the end of the rainbow.
This year’s playoffs look particularly strong. Four of the eight first-round series are considered near toss-ups, with the favorite checking it at -135 or lower. Only two series feature an overwhelming favorite, so there should be plenty of competitive basketball available for our viewing pleasure.
Of course, we’re not just looking to watch the NBA playoffs; we’re looking to make some money too. I love betting on the postseason because it reduces some of the night-to-night volatility in the NBA. Instead of having to bet on which team is going to cover each night, you can look to the series markets. If you think a team is better than their opponent, it’s much easier to realize that edge over a seven-game series than in one specific contest.
Let’s dive into my favorite series bets for the first round of the playoffs.
The Lakers managed to secure the No. 7 seed after beating the Pelicans in the play-in tournament, and their reward is a series vs. the defending champs. Good luck with that.
The Nuggets looked a tad sluggish out of the gates this season, which can be expected after a grueling title run. However, they’ve fully turned things on over the second half of the year. They’re second in Net Rating since the All-Star break, outscoring opponents by an average of +9.8 points per 100 possessions. They have the best player in the league in Nikola Jokic, and the rest of their roster is essentially at full strength.
While the regular version of Jokic is scary enough, the playoff version is downright terrifying. He averaged a ridiculous 30.0 points, 13.5 rebounds, 9.5 assists, 1.1 steals, and 1.0 block per game during last year’s run, and he shot 54.8% from the field and 46.1% from 3-point range. Those are the types of numbers you see in video games, not real life.
The Nuggets also still possess the best home-court advantage in basketball. They were 9-1 in Denver in last year’s playoffs, with the lone loss coming in the Finals.
Finally, there’s a serious mental edge for the Nuggets in this series. They swept the Lakers in last year’s playoffs, and they were 3-0 against them in the regular season. LeBron James hasn’t won a game in Denver since February 2020.
The Nuggets are the better team, and I like their chances of taking care of business quickly. Grabbing them -1.5 games means we need them to win in six games or fewer, which I think is extremely doable.
Did Someone Say ... Playoffs?
The 2024 NBA and NHL Playoffs are HERE!
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🦈 There’s bad… and then there’s Sharks bad. They’re officially the least profitable team in the NHL for the second straight year.
🦁 The Lions unveiled a new set of uniforms on Friday. Those black alternates are worth at least one point ATS.
🤫 Draft drama heats up. Jayden Daniels’ agent responds to a potential rift between his client and Washington.
😜 After surviving the Play-In, Larry Nance Jr. is betting on the Pelicans. No Jontay Porter, not that kind of betting!
🧹 The Heat advanced without Jimmy Butler. But the oddsmakers still think a Boston sweep is the most likely outcome in round one.
👧🏻 Caitlin Clark just smoked the Cowboys. Usually, Dallas waits until the postseason to underperform.
⛳ A four-way log-jam. It’s tight at the top after 36 holes of the RBC Heritage.
⏰ Friendly reminder, the NFL draft starts next Thursday. Our NFL bet tracker has plenty of ways to profit.
The NHL playoffs have arrived. The first round kicks off on Saturday with a late afternoon tilt between the Islanders and Hurricanes and an evening matchup between Toronto and Boston. The rest of round one will start between Sunday and Monday. Geoff Ulrich has a full preview for the first round on-site and breakdowns down his favorite futures and game bets for the first round below.
The last President’s Trophy winner to win the Stanley Cup was Chicago back in 2012-2013, and over the 37 years since the President’s Trophy has existed, the winner has gone on to win the Stanley Cup on just eight occasions (21.6%).
That said, I don’t think we need to be fearful of betting the Rangers in round one. The Capitals are not the 2023 Panthers (who upset the Bruins in seven games last year as the eighth seed). Washington has a -37 goal differential on the season, and that mark is the worst we have seen from a playoff team since before 2000.
The Rangers aren't perfect, and they’ll have to figure out how to beat goalie Charlie Lindgren (6.0 shutouts, .911) to avoid the first-round upset. However, this is Lindgren’s first year starting more than 40 games in the NHL, and the Rangers also have a brilliant counter in net with Igor Shesterkin, who posted a better save% (.913) than Lindgren and allowed just one goal in his last start against the Capitals.
The Rangers to finish this series in six games or less (-1.5) opened at -160 on FanDuel, but that number is no longer available. At this point, I’d probably look towards the bigger payout and play the Rangers -2.5 games (win in five games or less) at the current price of +138 instead.
Most goals in series (+900; DraftKings)
Verhaeghe returned for the Panthers in their final game of the regular season and looked terrific. The winger was coming off about two weeks of rest and still landed six shots and a goal against the Leafs. The fresh legs should help Verhaeghe at the start of this series, too, and from an odds perspective, he’s an attractive name to speculate on for Game 1 — and the series.
Despite leading the Panthers in goals last year (and maintaining nearly the same pace this season), Verhaeghe still has the sixth biggest odds on DraftKings for an anytime goal in Game 1. He’s also +900 to lead the series in goals, which feels like a very solid number given that the Panthers are set as -180 favorites and Verhaeghe remains their second-most prolific goal scorer.
The Lightning have some firepower of their own up front, but they also have a goalie in Andrei Vasilevskiy who managed just a .900 save % this year. The Lightning as a team failed to limit quality chances much of the season, and their 3.3 goals per game allowed mark was the highest mark of any playoff team. We should see some Panthers forwards put up big stats in this series as a result, and Verhaeghe provides the best blend of upside and value for me in the betting department.
The Predators scored just eight fewer goals than the Canucks this season and have winger Filip Forsberg, who leads all forwards in goals scored in this series with 48. Forsberg is coming off a career season and is backed up by the likes of Ryan O’Reilly and Roman Josi, who provide plenty of experience and high-end scoring ability of their own.
The Predators were also strong 5v5 down the stretch and even finished in front of Vancouver in xGF%. Vancouver will try to use their depth to grind down the Predators' top players, but even if they are successful, they’ll have to beat Jusse Saros. Saros may not be coming off the best season of his career, but he’s capable of putting his mark on these playoffs at any point and has fewer question marks than Thatcher Demko, who may not be 100% yet and is making his playoff debut.
If Demko is healthy and Vancouver can avoid the early playoff jitters, they could dominate this series. That said, neither of those outcomes are guaranteed or even likely. For that reason, I like backing the underdog Predators for a Game 1 upset at the current odds.