What’s in today’s newsletter?

1. Best bets for men’s Olympic basketball

2. Mark Drumheller’s favorite options for UFC 304

3. Watercooler: Dylan Cease gets his lick back

Best Bets for Men’s Olympic Basketball

by Matt LaMarca

USA to Win Gold Medal (-400; FanDuel)

The USA is the deserving favorite to win the gold medal. The question is – at what point does this bet stop becoming a value?

They’re priced at -500 across most of the industry, but there is a -400 available at FanDuel. That seems a smidge low to me. -400 translates to an implied probability of 80%, and the US has won gold in seven of eight Olympics with NBA players (87.5%).

The gap between the US and the field has narrowed, but this is not the same situation as when the team settled for bronze in 2004. They did not send their A-team to Athens, but we will undoubtedly have our best squad in Paris.

On paper, this team compares favorably to whatever previous version of USA basketball you want to compare it to. LeBron, Curry, and Durant are an amazing big three. Jayson Tatum and Anthony Davis are top-10 players worldwide. They have an excellent group of youngsters (Anthony Edwards, Tyrese Haliburton) and role players (Jrue Holiday, Bam Adebayo, Derrick White) to help fill the gaps. The US even managed to steal Joel Embiid away from Cameroon!

Are there some scenarios where this team fails to bring home the gold? Sure. But are there way more scenarios where this team absolutely dominates. You bet.

Whatever weaknesses this team may have with international basketball should be easily masked by pure raw talent. Expect a fifth straight gold medal.

Winner Without USA – Germany (+800; DraftKings)

I understand that betting a -400 favorite isn’t for everyone. Still, that’s the only bet I’m willing to make on the actual gold medal winner.

However, DraftKings does offer a “winner without” category, meaning that you can bet on which team will go furthest after the United States. If the US wins gold, whoever wins silver will win in this market.

Canada and France are the two favorites in this department, but I really like the value with Germany at +800. Germany gave the US everything they could handle in an exhibition contest on Monday. They lost by merely four points despite shooting an ice-cold 35.8% from the field and 28.9% from 3-point range. If a few additional shots go in the basket, they very easily could have come out on top.

This team doesn’t have the same natural talent that some of the other squads in the field do, but they’re led by Dennis Schroder, Andreas Obst, and Franz and Moritz Wagner. Those guys have gone toe-to-toe with the best in the world before, and they’re not afraid of the competition. They won a gold medal at the 2023 FIBA World Cup, beating the US in the semifinals and Serbia in the championship.

I think this team is being severely undervalued in the betting market. I have them ranked as the fourth-best team, just barely behind France and Canada. I like playing them to be the best non-US squad, as well as to win Group B (+180; Caesars) and take home a medal (+250; DraftKings)

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Best Bets for UFC304

by Mark Drumheller

Edwards to win by decision (+100; DraftKings) 

“Headshot Dead” is most likely the first thing that flashes into your mind when you hear the name Leon Edwards. His last-second, head kick knockout of Kamaru Usman not only transformed him into a champion but symbolized the perseverance it took Edwards to reach the mountain top. The legendary comeback also overshadows the fact that Edwards, albeit a great champion, is not a finisher. 

Prior to his knockout of Usman, Edwards was on a run of four straight decisions, with his last stoppage coming over Peter Sobotta in 2018. Both of his title defenses (Usman 2, Covington) went the full five rounds, ending in decision victories. That’s not a knock on Edwards. It’s quite the opposite. The consistency of his fights presents a great opportunity for us to bet on Edwards at even money to win a decision. 

From a matchup perspective, the fight strongly favors Edwards in a few ways. Despite Muhammad’s improvements, takedowns won’t come easy, if at all, against the champ. Edwards is a technician with significant advantages in footwork, allowing him to masterfully control the distance. When Muhammad does get inside, Leon can weaponize the clinch to land damaging elbows. Plus, Muhammad still has a tendency to leave himself vulnerable to — you guessed it — high head kicks. I see this fight primarily playing out as a five-round striking match, where Edwards picks him apart at range. Let’s lock up Leon at even money.

Allen to win by decision vs. Chikadze (+100, FanDuel) 

Giga Chikadze hasn’t been knocked out in 18 professional fights spanning over eight years. Arnold Allen has the superior technical striking, but that doesn’t mean it's wise to bet he’s the first to ice the former Glory kickboxer. 

Simply put - Chikadze’s chin checks out. In his only UFC loss, he absorbed 127 headshots from Calvin Kattar over five rounds. Once you come to terms with his durability, it’s clear this will be a striking chess match for three rounds. Rather than risk -225 on the moneyline, I am all over Allen to take home a decision victory. 

Allen’s lefthand out of the southpaw stance should find a home at a consistent rate. Both fighters can uncork good combinations at close range, but Allen’s calf kicks will make “Ninja” uncomfortable with moving forward. Once Allen makes him hesitant, he should control the pace and force Chikadze to fight off his back foot far too often. Allen has aggressively swarmed inferior strikers in past fights, and the roars from the hometown crowd will coerce the Englishman to keep his foot on the gas. 

We have seen some slight market movement towards Chikadze, but Allen’s unblemished 7-0 record as a UFC betting favorite is tough to overlook. In a fight I expect to go the distance, Allen is a solid play to get the nod from the judges on his home soil.

The latest analysis and insights from our merry band of football nerds:

🏈 More NFL props? Yes, please. Matthew Freedman breaks down some of his favorite season-long receiver props.

👀 The Mariners are 28th in runs per game, but help is on the way. Randy Arozarena is the first big domino to fall before the MLB trade deadline.

🔥 After falling one out short in 2022, Dylan Cease completes a no-hitter on Thursday. Luis Arraez brought the moment full circle.

😬 Not sure I’d want to poke the bear if I were the Raiders. They took a shot at the best quarterback in the league.

🏆 Team Fantasy Life FTW. The squad held it down at the BDGE live trivia event.

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