🏀 A Song of Ice and Hardwood

Hockey and basketball are great, but make sure you don’t mix up the footwear…

In today’s Betting Life newsletter presented by Underdog.

In the NBA, they say a playoff series doesn’t start until someone loses at home. If that’s the case, none of the eight series officially started in Game 1.

The home teams dominated across the first two days of the NBA playoffs, going a perfect 8-0. Only one of those teams failed to cover the spread (Thunder), while two home squads won as underdogs (Bucks and Clippers).

Can the home teams continue to dominate? We’ll have three Game 2s on Monday, and all three home squads are favored by at least 5.5 points. Let’s dive into my favorite betting options for those contests.

🔔 76ers (+6.0) at Knicks (-110; DraftKings)

The Knicks managed to take care of business in Game 1, but that game was closer than the final score suggested. The 76ers actually led by three points heading into the fourth quarter, but they couldn’t manage to get across the finish line. Joel Embiid was 0-5 from the field in the final frame, while Josh Hart nailed three 3-pointers and the Knicks gobbled up eight offensive boards.

Despite the loss, there were still some positives to take away for the 76ers. For starters, Embiid looked significantly better than he did during the Play-In Tournament. He still wasn’t particularly efficient – he shot just 8-22 from the field – but the 76ers outscored the Knicks by 14 points when their star big man was on the court. Tyrese Maxey also had his way with the Knicks’ defense, leading the team with 33 points.

The 76ers also posted a higher effective field goal percentage than New York in the first contest. If they had done a better job on the glass, they likely would’ve secured the win. The Knicks are an elite rebounding team – they were first in team rebound rate during the regular season – but a 48.9% offensive rebound rate is not the kind of number you should ever see in an NBA contest. As long as the 76ers are better in that department on Monday, I like their chances of covering the spread.

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💰 New matchups to target in Monday’s MLB action. Best bets for the 11-game slate.

👎 LeSean McCoy the running back? Top notch. LeSean McCoy the sports bettor? Perhaps not.

🎉 Party like it’s 1994. The Rangers and Knicks both won Game 1 at MSG for the first time in 30 years.

⚾ Take it off the board. Fan interference erases a would-be walk-off homerun at Coors Field.

🏌️‍♀️ Talk about a member’s bounce. Jasmine Koo couldn’t do that again even if she tried.

⏩ Only in the NHL playoffs. The Canucks were down until two goals in 12 seconds gave them the lead.

🥇 Four wins in five starts; and two new jackets in two weeks. Scottie Scheffler is good at golf.

☘️ Jayson Tatum posted his first career playoff triple-double on Sunday. One bettor couldn’t have been happier.

🏈 The NFL Draft starts this Thursday. Don’t forget to check out our FREE bet tracker before it does.

The NHL Playoffs have a four-game slate on tap for Monday. The final two series of round one (Edmonton vs. Los Angeles and Dallas vs. Vegas) kick off tonight, along with a couple of Game 2s in Boston vs. Toronto and Carolina vs New York. Geoff Ulrich is targeting a team on the regulation line, a game total, and a goal prop with his bets for the night below.

💧 Oilers to win in regulation (+105; bet365)

I wrote up the Oilers -1.5 as one of my favorite series bets in my full-length NHL Playoff Preview earlier in the week, so it should come as no shock that I also like them to take down Game 1. The Kings are a solid even-strength team who are great at dominating play against weaker opponents, but they’re unfortunately going against the best skating team in the league in Edmonton, who ranked first in xGF% at 5v5.

You could make the case that Los Angeles has stood up well to past versions of the Oilers (and by default, should again here), but since Game 3 of their first-round series last year, this matchup has been all Edmonton. The Oilers have won six of the last seven meetings with the Kings, and they’ve done so by a combined margin of 21-14.

With the Kings’ biggest strength being neutralized, they’ll either need the Oilers’ fourth-ranked power play to run ice cold or goalie Cam Talbot, who struggled in his last two starts, to run insanely hot. Either of those scenarios coming to fruition feels thin at best and makes betting the Oilers to win in regulation (at +100 or better) a nice proposition for Game 1.

📈 Stars vs. Golden Knights Over 5.5 goals (-115; BetMGM)

This series feels like it could go either way from a scoring perspective. On the one hand, both teams were solid defensively for much of the season. Dallas allowed the fourth-fewest high-danger scoring chances, while Vegas was above average in this stat.

On the other hand, both teams also have elite offensive drivers in Jason Robertson and Jack Eichel and legitimate scoring depth across three lines. Neither team’s goaltending was particularly elite this year, either. Jake Oettinger struggled at times, and his .905 save % in 2023-24 was the worst mark of his career. Adin Hill only managed 35 starts this season and posted a sub .900 save % in four of his last five starts for Vegas.

I think the offenses likely win out to begin this series and we potentially see some higher-scoring games out of the gate. Despite being sound defensively, Dallas was still 25-16 to the over at home this year, while Vegas played far looser on the road (23-17-1 to the over). With those trends in our favor, I like taking advantage of this lower opening total for Game 1 and hitting the over.

🏒 Jason Robertson Over 0.5 goals (+190; FanDuel)

With the Stars favored at home and Vegas goalie Adin Hill having allowed three or more goals in each of his last three starts, this also feels like a good time to go goal-hunting with Dallas’ forwards. Despite a down season goal-wise, Jason Robertson still anchors the Stars’ first unit power play, which operated with the fourth-best efficiency in the league this season.

Robertson has scored a goal in 45% of his games since March 1 (nine of his last 20 games), yet he’s still available as an anytime goalscorer at +190, a price which suggests an implied probability of around 35%. Considering Vegas is mediocre on special teams, and Robertson managed 31% of his goals on the man advantage in 2023-24, these odds look enticing enough to bet for Game 1.