🤫 A Sleeper team for 2024

I’m not exactly sure how you measure vibes, but the Mets are leading the league in that department.

In today’s Betting Life Newsletter presented by Underdog:

It's the start of July, which means just one thing: it's time to get on the Broncos bandwagon before the rest of the world catches up.

As of Monday morning, the Broncos are +700 (DraftKings) to make the playoffs. We aren't asking for much here — it's not to win the division or a huge stretch; all we need is for this team to discover enough harmony to be 9-8, essentially. 

This is a team coached by Sean Payton, a Super Bowl winner who very quietly won eight games with the Broncos last year in a season filled with dysfunction and distraction. 

Here's what you probably remember about the Broncos last year:

• Russell Wilson's 2022 "Let's Ride" memes coming back to haunt him seemingly every week

• The 70-20 loss to the Dolphins

• The late-season drama where Wilson was benched

• The ensuing he said/she said later-season reports of why Wilson was benched

Here's what you may not remember:

• The Broncos were hovering around .500 all season

• The Broncos were in playoff contention until Dec. 31

• Tim Patrick was lost for the season in July

• Marvin Mims never met expectations

• From Oct. 12 forward, Vance Joseph pulled the defense together and allowed just three games out of 12 with more than 24 points. They allowed 300 or more total yards to opponents just three times after the bye. 

"To make the playoffs" bets are usually pretty tame — once you pass 4-to-1 odds, you're talking disaster-level teams. The Broncos had the stench of a 5-12 embarrassment last year but weren't as bad as you remember. You take Wilson out of the mix now, and maybe (MAYBE) it's a more harmonious locker room and a tighter team. The coach has a string of 10-win seasons. The defense has momentum. And the QB? That's where things get interesting.

The Broncos have three quarterbacks from which to choose — Jarrett Stidham, Zach Wilson, and Bo Nix.

Wilson was the second overall pick three years ago and suffered through two impossible Jets seasons. He may have a Geno Smith-style resurgence being away from New York.

Stidham (who can sneakily run) knows the system and has been effective in his four career starts — three of which have been in January when seasons were all but over and rosters decimated. He's served as the "next man up" in New England, Las Vegas, and Denver and could be on the precipice of a breakout.

Nix is obviously a rookie and unknown, but he's talented and could be a revelation if he wins the job. 

Denver has solid wide receivers and a tight end in Adam Trautman, who was once thought to be a sleeper offensive weapon when he was with Payton in New Orleans. The RBs are fine and can catch passes.

Add it all up and you have a Broncos team that was somehow in the playoff hunt for almost all of last season returning a solid core, cutting out a lot of drama and tension, and looking at three QBs who may have a lot more talent than what it appears to be on the surface.

To just make the playoffs after all that seems to be a great value at +700.

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⛳️ The John Deere Classic tees off on Thursday. Everything you need to know.

🏀 Angel Reese is down to +400 for WNBA Rookie of the Year. She’s already set one record this season.

🤔 Alexander Sarr opens as the favorite for NBA Rookie of the Year. But there’s not much separation between the top four.

🤯 Frank Bensel Jr. was two under through six holes at the US Open Senior Open. You won’t believe how he achieved that score.

🇦🇺 Akshay Bhatia was perfect on short putts until he wasn’t. His first miss allowed Cameron Davis to take down the Rocket Mortgage.

⛓️‍ Turns out snapping your driver isn’t a great idea when you’re in contention on Sunday. Someone get Cameron Young an edible.  

🗝️ The straws that stir the drink. Freedman breaks down the key contributors of each NFL offense.

Monday’s MLB slate is one of the smallest of the entire season, with just three games to choose from. Fortunately, Matt LaMarca still sees a spot that is providing some betting value…

🍎 New York Mets F5 ML at Washington Nationals (-106; FanDuel)

The weekend was not kind to the streaking Mets. They dropped their final two games vs. the Astros, and they had to wait out a long rain delay to finish the game on Sunday. That could make them a bit hungover for Monday’s tilt vs. their division rivals.

Still, the Mets have been in great spirits of late, so it’s going to take more than a couple of losses and some rain to keep them down.

They’ll send David Peterson to the bump on Monday, and Peterson has had a rollercoaster start to his year. He owns a 3.67 ERA, but his advanced metrics suggest he’s been extremely fortunate. However, Peterson has historically been a league-average pitcher, and that should be good enough vs. the Nationals. Washington is merely 20th in runs per game, and they’re a paltry 28th in wRC+ vs. southpaws.

Conversely, the Mets have done their best work this season against left-handers. They’re second in wRC+ in that split, trailing only the mighty Dodgers, and they own a blistering 174 wRC+ vs. southpaws over the past 14 days.

MacKenzie Gore has had a breakout campaign for the Nationals, but he’s far from unhittable. He’s allowed at least four runs in three of his past five starts, including a six-run outing vs. the Mets.

The Mets are still dealing with the suspension of Edwin Diaz, which has had an impact on their bullpen. Most of their relievers are taxed, so playing the first-five moneyline makes the most sense.