👀 Show Me What I Want to SEE

Somehow, the best teams in the NFL all have something they need to prove to sports bettors in Week 6…

In today’s Betting Life Newsletter presented by Unabated:

As I’m writing this (Saturday at 6:30 pm ET), these are the top 10 teams in the league in odds to win the Super Bowl (per BetMGM).

1. 49ers: +400

2. Chiefs: +500

3. Eagles: +700

4. Bills: +850

5. Dolphins: +900

6. Cowboys: +1400

7. Lions: +1400

8. Ravens: +1600

9. Bengals: +2000

10. Jaguars: +2500

If I were a fan of these teams — or a bettor who had futures tickets on them or was thinking about investing in them — here’s what I’d like to see from each of them this week.

🌧️ 49ers at Browns

Many people will focus on the fact that the Browns offense is without QB Deshaun Watson (shoulder), RB Nick Chubb (knee, IR), RT Jack Conklin (knee, IR), LG Joel Bitonio (knee), and maybe C Ethan Pocic (chest, knee, foot, questionable).

That’s important.

But the Browns defense is No. 1 in expected points added (-0.279) and success rate (30.1%, per RBs Don’t Matter).

If I’m a 49ers backer, I want to see them — even in rainy and windy weather — move the ball against this fearsome Browns defense.

🤷 Chiefs vs. Broncos

The Chiefs already played on Thursday Night Football, and I’m not sure we saw anything notable.

But…

🦅 Eagles at Jets

The Eagles are yet to hit their full stride on offense, and now they have a tough-on-paper matchup with the Jets defense … but the Jets are without starting perimeter CBs Sauce Gardner (concussion) and D.J. Reed (concussion).

If I’m an Eagles fan, I want to see them leverage star WRs A.J. Brown and DeVonta Smith to get the offense going.

🩸 Bills vs. Giants

The Giants are without QB Daniel Jones (neck), LT Andrew Thomas (hamstring), RT Evan Neal (ankle), C John Michael Schmitz (shoulder), and backup OT Matt Peart (shoulder).

They could also be without RB Saquon Barkley (ankle, questionable) and LG Shane Lemieux (groin, questionable).

Over the past two weeks, the Bills have lost CB Tre'Davious White (Achilles, IR), LB Matt Milano (leg, IR), and DT DaQuon Jones (pec, IR) for the season.

This week, if I’m a Bills backer I want to see them stop the defensive bleeding and get back on track by putting a hurting on a damaged offense.

🐬 Dolphins vs. Panthers

The Panthers are without No. 1 CB Jaycee Horn (hamstring, IR), SS Vonn Bell (quadriceps), FS Xavier Woods (hamstring), and LB Shaq Thompson (ankle, IR) in their defensive back seven.

If I’m a Dolphins degen, I want — nay, I EXPECT — another 70-point performance on offense. Well, maybe not 70. But a lot.

🤠 Cowboys at Chargers

This one is simple: I’m actually a Cowboys fan.

As such, I’d like to see HC Mike McCarthy call an offense that looks capable.

And if the gambling gods be good, maybe that offense will even look better than the one called on the other side of this game by former Cowboys and current Chargers OC Kellen Moore.

But, alas, I dream.

🦁 Lions at Buccaneers

The Lions are on the road. And on defense they’re without CBs Brian Branch (ankle) and Emmanuel Moseley (knee, hamstring, IR), SS C.J. Gardner-Johnson (pectoral, IR), and EDGEs James Houston (ankle, IR) and Josh Paschal (knee, IR).

Compare that to the Buccaneers, who are at home, coming off the bye, and led by QB Baker Mayfield, who is No. 5 in the league in composite EPA and completion percentage over expectation (0.150).

We know what the Lions can do on offense. If I were a Lions investor, I’d want to see them show me what they can do on defense in a suboptimal spot.

🖐️ Ravens vs. Titans (in London)

Last week, the Ravens had seven drops while scoring just 10 points.

This week, they face the Titans, who are Nos. 27 & 28 in defensive dropback EPA (0.155) and SR (50%).

If I were a Ravens fan, I’d want to see QB Lamar Jackson’s receivers hold onto the ball and give him the passing production he has been entitled to.

🐯 Bengals vs. Seahawks

QB Joe Burrow started slowly in Weeks 1-2 as he worked his way back from a calf injury that sidelined him in the preseason — and then he aggravated the injury and was clearly limited in Weeks 3-4.

But in Week 5 he bounced back with 317 yards and three TDs passing as the Bengals scored a season-high 34 points.

If I were a Bengals backer, I’d want to see Burrow have similar success this week before the team heads into the Week 7 bye.

☝️ Jaguars vs. Colts

The Jaguars already beat the Colts in Week 1 — but they’re tied atop the AFC South at 3-2, and the Jaguars just spent the past two weeks abroad in London.

If I were a Jaguars investor, I’d want to see the team — even with a cumulative travel disadvantage — take care of business at home against an inferior team and get sole possession of the division lead.

For everything you need for Week 6 — including our inactives page, which will update shortly after 11:30 am ET with all of the relevant status updates — you can get to your destination with a mere click of a button.

See our suite of tools to get you ready for today’s slate below:

Every week, Matthew Freedman writes an article with his top five player props. Here are a couple of his favorites, which you can find (along with lots of other bets) in our 100% FREE bet tracker.

🏃‍♂️ Josh Allen Over 28.5 Rushing Yards (-110, BetMGM)

Allen has not run the ball nearly as much this year as he has in previous seasons. This year, he’s averaging just four carries per game. Last year, he had almost double that at 7.8.

A glance at our Fantasy Life Utilization Tool highlights the discrepancy.

• 2023: 7% designed rush rate | 6% scramble rate

• 2022: 18% designed rush rate | 8% scramble rate

• 2021: 19% designed rush rate | 7% scramble rate

• 2020: 21% designed rush rate | 5% scramble rate

His year-to-year scramble rate has held relatively steady, but his designed rush rate has declined each of the past three years and dropped off a cliff this season.

Even so, his rushing efficiency has remained intact (6.0 yards per carry this season, 6.1 last season), and Allen’s rushing prop of 28.5 presents us with a buy-low opportunity.

Easily, 28.5 is the lowest mark Allen has had this year. Last week, his rushing prop was 35. Last year, the lowest prop he had was 37.5.

His usage has changed, but I believe this is an over-adjusted number.

The Giants defense is No. 3 in the league in blitz rate (41.4%), but it has a mediocre pressure rate (19.7%). I expect the Giants to come after Allen — but I don’t think they’ll sack him often, which means that he’ll have opportunities to escape the pocket and pick up chunk yardage as a scrambler.

Given that the Bills are massive home favorites, there’s always the risk of Allen being scripted out of the game as a runner and losing valuable yards at the end of the game on kneel-downs.

But, again, this number is too low for a runner of Allen’s talent.

Of the QBs to face the Giants this year, the guy most comparable to Allen as a rusher is Josh Dobbs. He had 41 yards on just three carries against the Giants in Week 2.

• My Projection: 32
  Original Bet: 25.5 (-115)
  Cutoff: 29.5

🦵 Trevor Lawrence Over 15.5 Rushing Yards (-130, PointsBet)

I continue to see value on the over for the rushing props of pocket-passing QBs who still have good mobility — like Lawrence.

And the market is still too low on Lawrence specifically.

He is 4-1 to the over on his rushing prop this year, and he has cleared 15.5 — in fact, he has cleared 20 — in every game but one.

Through five games, he has shown a strong willingness to run (six carries per game this year vs. 3.6 last year). The sample is small, but it’s encouraging.

Relative to last year, his usage on designed runs has bumped up a little, and his enthusiasm for abandoning the pocket when pressured has amplified.

• 2023: 10% designed rush rate | 8% scramble rate

• 2022: 9% designed rush rate | 4% scramble rate

It’s especially notable that his scramble rate has doubled — because that’s the part of his rushing production that is primarily within his control. Even if he gets no designed carries in any given game, he still has a chance to hit his over because of his scrambling.

Given his usage and production, I think Lawrence is priced near his floor, and against the Colts in Week 1, he had 21 yards on seven carries.

My Projection: 22.3
Original Bet: 15.5 (-111)
Cutoff: 19.5

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Welcome to Week 6 of Bets from the Group Chat. This is where I (Geoff Ulrich) elicit as much information as possible from my Fantasy Life colleagues about their leans for this week. It’s a selfish endeavor, as I’ll be using some of their plays to offset my own losers.

Before we get to the bets, a little self-promotion. A lot of the information and bets were arrived at by using our free betting tools.

Pages like our player prop table can let you see right away where our projections see the biggest edges for the week and can be very useful in helping make decisions for betting and fantasy every week. Make sure you check them out after you’re done reading.

Let’s get to it…

⬇️ Jordan Likes: Salvon Ahmed under 27.5 rush yards (-115, BetMGM)

• Fantasy Life aggregate projection: 3.5 carries | 14.6 rush yards

Salvon Ahmed sets up like an M. Night Shyamalan movie for me this week. You know there is a twist coming, but you don’t know if the twist is going to be good (The Sixth Sense – he sees 10+ carries and 100+ yards) or bad (The Happening – he gets the odd pity carry, but Raheem Mostert hogs the ball and rookie Chris Brooks plays over him).

If you’re playing Ahmed overs, you should likely go for the homerun and play alternative lines (50+, 75+ yards), but, with his rushing total where it is now, I agree with Jordan – the under is the play. Ahmed hasn’t had a touch in three straight games (inactive in two of the last three), and even when rookie DeVon Achane missed Week 1, the Dolphins gave him just three carries.

His under is a very worthy start to our parlay.

☠️ Mark Likes: Raiders under 22.5 team total (-115, BetMGM)

I gotta admit, when Mark Drumheller dropped this bet in I had to double-check and see if it was the correct total. Las Vegas has been a slow-paced offense this year (27th in plays per game) and has a defense that has been decent at stopping the big play (16th in yards per play against), but that also doesn’t produce turnovers (4 turnovers on the season – tied for third worst in league).

That just adds up to lots of long sustained drives for their opponent.

As Mark explains in our free bet tracker, as bad as the Patriots have been, this is also a great spot for the Patriots’ defense – both from a 2023 and historical perspective.

Mark’s thinking is pretty much in line with my own on this game and offers another way to play for a Patriots bounceback (and fade the Raiders) making the under 22.5 team total a great one for us to target.

⬆️ Geoff Likes: Zach Wilson over 11.5 rush yards (-115, BetMGM)

• Fantasy Life aggregate projection: 16.9 rush yards

Since it’s the first week we’re putting together the group parlay I will selfishly take the last leg and include one of my own favorite player props for the week.

So far this year, Zach Wilson has seen a slightly elevated scramble rate (6% vs. 5% last year) and interestingly enough has a 5% designed rush rate – and been over 7% on designed rush attempts in three of four starts.

While you don’t primarily think of Wilson as a runner, he’s still got decent mobility and comes in averaging 19.25 rush yards over his last four games.

When you add in the fact he’s facing a team that brings lots of pressure in the Eagles – who allowed the fourth most rush yards to opposing QBs last year – this feels like a great spot for Wilson to potentially use his legs to help alleviate some of that pressure.

🤝 Week 6 Group Parlay: +543 (BetMGM)

• Salvon Ahmed under 27.5 rush yards (-115)

• Raiders under 22.5 team total (-115)

• Zach Wilson over 11.5 rush yards (-115)

You can tail our group parlay at BetMGM, where you can get up to $1,500 paid back in bonus bets when you sign up for a new account!

Our friends over at The Hammer Betting Network have been adding their favorite Week 6 bets to our Free Bet Tracker. Here’s one of the latest courtest of Rob Pizzola…

❤️ “Let me not to the marriage of true minds admit impediments.” I wouldn’t watch the Jets, Bears, and Broncos play in person if you paid me.

📺 Last minute bets, anyone? We’ve got you covered before kickoff.

🤔 It now might be +EV to bet on the coin toss??? About to spend 10,000 hours studying the flipping of small metal discs. 

🤮 So maybe NFL teams now have less incentive to tank? Two top prospects hurt.

🌽 When incentives don’t 100% align. Scoring points ain’t the same as winning.

💰 Penn State stays profitable for the people. He’s not Ben Franklin, but he’s making us $100 bills.

✍️ Don’t submit your Week 6 contest picks until you check this out: How not to lose all your selections!

🏒 In other news, hockey is BACK! I mean, it looks like a bar fight — but it’s an actual sport!

The Week 6 SNF nightcap features an ELECTRIC matchup between the Bills and… checks notes… Giants! Matt LaMarca is here to break it down from a betting angle…

If you’ve been waiting all day for Sunday night, I’m not entirely sure what you’ve been waiting for. Sorry, Carrie Underwood.

For the fourth time in six weeks, the Giants will grace our TV for a primetime contest. If you can’t tell, I’m using the word “grace” sarcastically. They’ve been arguably the worst team in football this season, ranking 31st in yardage differential and dead-last in scoring differential.

The Bills are just 3-2, but they are still one of the best teams in the league. They did have a slipup last week in London, but they should be ready to reassert their dominance in Week 6.

Let’s dive into all the betting angles for Sunday Night Football.

💩 New York Giants at Buffalo Bills

• Spread: Bills -14.5 (-115, BetMGM)

• Total: 44

• Moneylines: Giants +675/Bills -1100

In addition to the Giants’ straight-up struggles, they’ve also been a disaster against the spread. They’re 0-5 ATS through their first five contests, failing to cover the spread in their lone win vs. the Cardinals. Overall, no team has cost bettors more money than the Giants to start the season.

Historically, teams that have been THAT BAD tend to become strong targets in the betting market. Teams on an ATS losing streak of five games or more have gone 85-62-4 ATS since 2005. That’s a 57.8% cover rate, good for a +11.9% return on investment.

Even with that information staring us in the face, it’s hard to make a buy-low case for the Giants given their current injury situation. The team will be without LT Andrew Thomas and RB Saquon Barkley once again, and QB Daniel Jones will join them on the sidelines. That leaves the team without their top three offensive players.

Things only get worse from there. Two additional offensive linemen have been ruled out, while two more are questionable. Tight end Darren Waller is also questionable, while pass-rusher Azeez Ojulari has been ruled out.

The Bills are significantly healthier, but they will have to deal with a return trip from overseas. That has been a brutal spot for teams without the luxury of a bye week to readjust.

Obviously, if the Bills follow the same trend and don’t lead at some point during the fourth quarter, it’s going to be pretty tough to cover a spread of greater than two touchdowns.

🤑 Best Bet: Bills -14.5 (-115, BetMGM)

I’m going to keep this one pretty simple. I don’t care if the Bills are returning from London, Australia, or the moon — this game should not be close.

The Giants have been a disaster all season, and this will be easily the worst team that they’ve put on the field. Without their entire starting backfield and potentially five offensive linemen, I’m not sure how this team does anything against a good Bills defense.

The offensive line injuries are particularly huge. The Giants’ offensive line ranks dead last in Pro Football Focus pass blocking and run blocking grades, and they could be even worse on Sunday.

14.5 feels like a lot of points, but this number is as high as 15.5 at some locations. Josh Allen has also historically been a strong investment after a loss, posting a record of 13-9-2 ATS. That includes a 9-5-2 mark as a favorite, so I’m not overly worried about the points.

The Giants already have four losses by at least 15 points this season. I’m expecting it to be five by the end of Sunday night.