September Story Still Being Written

TNF AFC East Scrum: Jets vs. Patriots

September 19, 2024

Sept. 19, 2024

PRESENTED BY

Rounding Third: Another MLB regular season is coming to a close and, wow, what a run. What feels every bit like a marathon while mid-stream, all is somehow gone in a blink. Keep your head on a swivel, betting baseball in September is weird—peculiar in terms of usage at times, but also providing value as the nation turns its attention to football.

John Laghezza

To harken back on one of our first building blocks, “no bet’s better than a bad bet,” this quick tip will save you aggravation as we round third and head home. Do not waste your time geting bullish on teams currently out of the race. The game’s variant enough without the uncertainty of undisclosed load management or experimentation. 

We witnessed a pretty good example of this a week or so ago when Cincinnati pulled Rhett Lowder to the dismay of bettors. He got the hook shy of his props in an efficient outing after just 77 pitches—despite starting the 7th inning a week earlier. 

We don’t have access to team files or work schedules. Therefore, it’s best to just avoid any scenarios made more unpredictable by managers not caring about the outcome. Stick to competitive teams in must-win spots that are more likely to let their aces go deep with the season on the line—you’ll thank me later.

What else is in today’s newsletter?

  • The New York Prop Exchange

  • TNF Betting Primer

  • Total Recall

NFL BETTING

The New York Prop Exchange🏈🏛️—A Constitutional Convention

Well, what else would you call a couple of Patriots looking to get over on a perceived superpower?

Embarrassing dad jokes aside, as our compadre Matthew Freedman would say, this play’s ugly. We covered tonight’s market expectation yesterday—a knockdown, drag-out barroom brawl between the Jets and the Patriots.

That said, the uncertainty surrounding the Patriots’ pass-catching room dropped their collective receiving props lower than any starting duo I can remember. Does it really read 37 yards? Combined? New England’s far from prolific, I get it—the Pats are comfortably in the bottom 10 across the board in every major passing statistic thus far. 

However, despite coming in at second and third in team route participation (below), it’s wideouts K.J. Osborn and Ja’Lynn Polk really acting as starters.

Meanwhile DeMario Douglas, who carries the highest receiving prop, doesn’t even play in two-wide sets (below). Not great.

The Jets defense has played OK so far, I guess—but it’s far from promised, featuring a negative EPA/play and bottom-5 total in splash plays (below). For anyone unfamiliar with the term, it’s a very useful amalgamated defensive stat covering Sacks + Tackles For Loss + Pressures Leading to Throw Aways + Run & Pass Stuffs + Int + FF + FR + Passes Defended (and Batted) + Stops on 3rd & 4th Down.

Again, this cap involves some of the lowest expectations I’ve ever had for full-time players who aren’t injured. Also, down a TD against the spread, New England should be throwing late. We could literally hit this on one garbage-time drive. Even when modeling New England for only 15.5 points at a slow pace with barely average QB play, I still have Osborn and Polk each clearing their yardage props by at least a half dozen yards.

THE SGP BET: K.J. Osborn Over 18.5 Receiving Yards and Ja’Lynn Polk Over 17.5 Receiving Yards (+250)

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TNF BETTING

TNF Sharps are Making a Move: Patriots at Jets

Presented by Sharp Hunter

Divisional rivals square off on Thursday Night Football as the New York Jets host the New England Patriots to kick off NFL's Week 3. 

The dogs were barking in Week 2, with underdogs posting a solid 10-5-1 ATS record, and an even more solid 8-8 SU. EIGHT outright winners for the dogs. 

The Pats are road dogs here, getting either 6 or 6.5 points depending on where you're betting as of Wednesday afternoon. The total sits at 38.5 

Maybe all those Week 2 dogs are influencing the Sharps we track at Sharp Hunter, as we're showing a One-Bag Sharp Score on the Pats +6.5. 

The Pats are banged up—LB Ja'Whaun Bentley (pectoral), OT Vederian Lowe (knee) and G Sidy Sow (ankle) have all been ruled out. They come into Week 3 with the third-fewest passing yards in the NFL. 

As a Pats fan who has watched this team struggle to pass the football at even a basic level, I can't bet with the Sharps here. I get the thesis—low total, divisional game = take the points—but I have no belief this team can come back if they fall behind.

They just played in OT and now have to go on the road against a good Jets team. Teams playing on the road after an OT game against a team NOT coming off an OT game—less than seven days later—cover less than 50% of the time. Yikes. 

Again, I get the sharps idea here. But I can't get on board with this Pats team, even if the dogs ruled in Week 2. 

Me? I'm playing the under, which is 19-7 when the total is under 40 on TNF dating back to 2010. 

Let's see if the underdog and the sharps pick up where they left off in Week 2. 

AROUND THE WATERCOOLER

The latest analysis and insights from our merry band of sports betting nerds:

⚡️ Matthew Freedman is paying close attention to the LA Chargers in his Week 3 NFL Bets.

📺 Claudia is joined by Thor Nystrom as they break down College Football Week 4 Best Bets, Player Props, Spreads, and More!

👀 Still want more College Football betting? Thor delivers his Week 4 CFB Best Picks and Props.

🔮 Our team of Fantasy Life experts uncover the winners for all 16 games with their Week 3 NFL Pool Picks.

🧐 Check out the Odds, Line Movement, and Betting Percentages for Jets vs. Patriots on Thursday Night Football.

MLB BETTING

Total Recall ⚾️💣—Chicago For Five

Ah, the certainties in life. Death, taxes, the sun rising in the east, bears doing their business in the woods—and Patrick Corbin getting rolled out every five days despite a 5.67 ERA across his last 670 IP. The Nats are determined to get as many innings out of that $23M AAV as possible, and we’re right here to benefit. 

There’s never a better time to go after the veteran southpaw than right after a gem, and he just threw a six-inning beauty against the hapless Marlins. Corbin’s been objectively terrible and a great mark for scoring tonight with his 5.45 ERA (5.58 xERA), 1.49 WHIP, .865 OPS, 11% K-BB, 48% Hard Hit, and .348 xwOBA.

Corbin’s especially struggled on the road. In his 15 starts away from home he’s allowed 2+ ER 13 times, 3+ ER nine times, +4 ER eight times, +5 ER four times, and +7 ER thrice. Woof. His four-seamer is down over 1 MHP since 2022 to a very-hittable 91 mph for a Nats squad with nothing to play for. Flipside, the Cubbies are top 3 vs. LHP in batting average and runs scored the last 30 days (below).

Just in case we don’t get our runs early, the Nats left the light on for us—Washington’s bullpen has been disgraceful the last ~50 IP (5.01 ERA, 1.52 WHIP) since waving the white flag. 

Let’s Go, Cubs!

THE BET: CHC Team Total O4.5 (-115) DKSB

Be sure to follow along with my MLB prop bets with our Free MLB bets tracker!

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