🔮 Seeing the Futures

Can anyone stop the Celtics?

In today’s Betting Life newsletter presented by BetMGM.

With the unofficial first half of the NBA season in the books, it’s a great time to take a look at the futures market. Which teams are offering the best value to go the distance at various price points? Let’s break it down:

☘️ Favorites: Celtics (+265, Caesars)

I get it. It feels like the Celtics have been flirting with a championship for a while, only to come up short when it matters most. They’ve lost in the Eastern Conference Finals twice and the NBA Finals once in the past four seasons. Their superstar seems to vacillate between brilliance and indifference. I don’t blame you if you think their destiny is always to be a bridesmaid and never the bride.

That said, things are different this season.

Their roster makes more sense than it did last year, swapping out Marcus Smart, Malcolm Brogdon, and Robert Williams for Kristaps Porzingis and Jrue Holiday. They have the best Net Rating in the league by a comfortable margin, along with the best record. Their starting lineup has posted a Net Rating of +11.4. As long as this team stays healthy — a big if for Porzingis — they’re the best team in the league.

Unless something changes drastically, I expect them finally to get over the hump and win the 18th championship in franchise history.

☀️ Contenders: Suns (+1400, BetMGM)

The Suns are priced at a significant discount compared to the Nuggets (+475) and Clippers (+550) in the Western Conference, but I would argue their ceiling is just as high. They have one of the best scorers in NBA history in Kevin Durant, and Devin Booker is an elite running mate. Add in one of the best No. 3s in the league in Bradley Beal, and the Suns have enough talent to go toe-to-toe with anyone.

The big key is availability. Beal has played just 30 games this season due to injury, and he suffered another injury Tuesday vs. the Kings. Still, it seems like that injury is relatively minor, and if this team is at full strength no one is going to want to play them during the playoffs.

When they’ve had Durant, Booker, and Beal on the floor this season, they’ve posted a Net Rating of +12.4. They’ll need to play well down the stretch to secure a guaranteed playoff spot, but if they get in they’re good enough to beat anyone.

⚔️ Longshots: Cavaliers (+2800, DraftKings)

There’s a case to be made for the Cavs being the second-best team in the East. For starters, they’re already holding the No. 2 seed, boasting a two-game lead over the Bucks and a four-game lead over the Knicks.

Cleveland may not have the same star power as Milwaukee, but they’ve rattled off an impressive stretch after a slow start to the year. They’ve won 23 of their past 28 games, and they’ve posted a Net Rating of +11.4 over that stretch. That puts them on par with any team in the league over that time frame.

Cleveland isn’t getting a ton of respect in the betting market after flaming out in the playoffs last year, but this is a young team that is still getting better. Donovan Mitchell is in the middle of his prime, while Evan Mobley, Jarrett Allen, and Darius Garland are all 25 or younger. Last year was a good learning experience. Don’t be surprised if they make a run in their second year together.

🛑 The Sports Calendar Never Slows Down!

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🕶 The future is bright. The number of bettors and fantasy players increases to nearly 85M in 2023.

🏆 The champs are here! Who else did you expect to take home the hardware at the FSGA awards?

💡 No need to adjust your TV. The NBA is breaking out an LED court for All-Star Weekend.

🐐 The marquee event for All-Star Saturday. Can Sabrina Ionescu take down the 3-point GOAT?

🚗 Daytona 500: The NASCAR season shifts into high gear this Sunday.

😴 Let’s save the knockouts for the pros. Isaiah Stewart does his best UFC298 impression in the pre-game tunnel.

👽 The future is now. The NBA’s newest alien has taken a massive step forward over the past two months.

🎢 A rollercoaster. Betting is hard and the OT at the Super Bowl caused massive swings for some.

The UFC schedule keeps rolling along, with a marquee event scheduled for Saturday in UFC 298. There are five fights on the main card — including a championship headliner — and seven preliminary bouts, so there are plenty of spots to look for betting value. Mark Drumheller breaks down his top options for the event …

🥊 Ilia Topuria Over Alexander Volkanovski (+105, DraftKings)

When a bet feels uncomfortable, that’s usually a good indication that you are taking the right position. Alexander Volkanovski is a perfect 11-0 as a UFC featherweight and has successfully defended his title five times since capturing gold in 2019. It won’t be fun betting against the featherweight GOAT, but I believe Ilia Topuria will dethrone Volkanovski on Saturday night.

Volkanovski’s age has been a significant talking point leading up to the fight. Historically, the younger fighter has dominated (15-6) in featherweight championship bouts, but Volkanovski has been an outlier (5-0). 

That said, you can’t defy the odds forever in mixed martial arts. 

It’s not just that Volkanovski is on the wrong side of 35. I have major concerns with how he will handle Topuria’s power only four months removed from his first career knockout loss (albeit at lightweight). Topuria holds an 85% finish rate for his career and showcased his elite boxing by battering Josh Emmett over five rounds in his first main event this past summer. Volkanovski looked a step slower in his recent loss to lslam Makhachev, and any split-second reduction in reaction time makes a massive difference against a fighter with Topuria’s speed and precision.

Despite Volkanovski’s unblemished 10-0 record as a betting favorite, money has come in on Topuria since he opened as a +130 underdog, pushing him closer to even money. I am going to follow the money and bet we see a new featherweight champion crowned this weekend.

🗳 Favorite Prop: Robert Whittaker Over Paulo Costa By Decision (+120, FanDuel) 

This prop is a great way to get off Whittaker's high moneyline price, which is up to -250 in some shops. While the concern over Whittaker’s durability is warranted (coming off a knockout loss to Dricus du Plessis), I am confident his chin can hold up in a three-round fight.

Whittaker’s counter-striking and superior technical boxing will also allow him to win rounds easily if this one heads to the scorecards. Costa’s last knockout win was over five years ago, and Whittaker’s last six victories have come via decision. Whittaker continues to send messages to Costa that he is hunting for a finish, but his words won’t back me off betting on the most probable outcome at plus money.

🤼‍♂️ Parlay: Merab Devalishvili ML + Anthony Hernandez ML (+109, FanDuel)

Offensive grappling advantages are one of the most reliable mismatches to target, so I love to incorporate them into small moneyline parlays. Both Dvalishvili and Hernandez will find great success controlling each of their fights with their wrestling skills, limiting the knockout variance that occurs in fights that play out mainly on their feet. 

Devalishvili, the No. 2-ranked bantamweight, leads all UFC-ranked fighters in takedown attempts per 15 minutes (18.06). Although his opponent, Henry Cejudo, is a former Olympic gold medalist in wrestling, it’s hard to imagine him overcoming Devalishvili’s relentless pressure and pace.

Hernandez holds an even larger grappling advantage against kickboxer Roman Kopylov. Hernandez has landed at least six takedowns in each of his past three wins, and I am comfortable that he can drag Kopylov into deep waters rather quickly.