🚂 The Second Round Picks Up Steam

NBA and NHL Previews for Monday

May 06, 2024

The cream always rises to the top — Randy “Macho Man” Savage

In today’s Betting Life newsletter presented by Moby.

  • NBA: Back the Timberwolves again in Game 2?

  • MLB: Another wind-aided under in Wrigley

  • NHL Playoffs: Expect the Panthers to show their claws

  • It’s 5/6. Take it away, Matt LaMarca

And then there were eight. That’s how many teams are left standing with a chance to take home the Larry O’Brien trophy.

With that in mind, it seems like a good opportunity to take a look at the Futures market and identify which teams are providing value. Ultimately, there are three teams I would consider making a play on to win the Finals at this point:

The deserving favorites. They breezed through the Heat in Round 1, and they should be able to do the same against the Cavaliers in Round 2; I’ve already locked in a bet on Boston -2.5 games in that series.

After that, a matchup vs. either the Knicks or Pacers awaits. That’s another series where the C’s will be heavily favored, giving them a very easy road to the NBA Finals. They’ll be challenged once they get there, but this has been the best team in basketball all season. Barring an injury, I expect them to raise their 18th championship banner in franchise history.

After stealing Game 1 in Denver, this team is now favored to win their series vs. the defending champs. However, they’re still below the Nuggets in the futures market. That’s a mistake.

This Timberwolves’ squad is for real. They were second in Net Rating in the Western Conference during the regular season, with only the inexperienced Thunder ahead of them.

Ultimately, whoever wins this series between the Nuggets and Timberwolves should win the West. They’ll be underdogs vs. the Celtics, but there’s value in this number.

The Mavs are the dark horse (pun intended). I like their chances of upsetting the Thunder in the second round. They have oodles of playoff experience, with Kyrie Irving winning a championship and Luka Doncic playing in his seventh playoff series. Most of the Thunder’s rotation has simply not seen this level before, and history says that will be an issue. Most of the great teams in NBA history had to lose in the postseason before they were able to make the leap.

If Dallas can get past the Thunder, it will give us some hedge opportunities in the Western Conference Finals. That said, it would not be inconceivable for them to win the Conference Finals. They have two of the best offensive players in basketball, and their defense has taken major steps forward since the trade deadline.

With the futures covered, let’s dive into Monday’s slate. We have two games to choose from: Game 1 between the Knicks and Pacers and Game 2 of Timberwolves-Nuggets. Both spreads sit at around 5.5 points, so it should be a good night of basketball.

This has the potential to be an all-time playoff series. That’s how even these two teams are. The Timberwolves managed to steal Game 1 in Denver, but I think this series has the potential to go the distance.

So why back the Timberwolves in Game 2? Ultimately, whoever is the underdog in this series is likely going to get my attention. Giving the Timberwolves 5.5 points in Denver feels like too many, and the same figures to be true when the Nuggets are in Minnesota. Even if the Nuggets win tonight, I expect this game to come down to the wire.

Additionally, the Timberwolves match up well with the Nuggets. They have three legit seven-footers to throw at Jokic, and all of them had an impact in Game 1. Rudy Gobert, Karl-Anthony Towns, and Naz Reid all provided value in different ways, and that trio has as good a chance as any to slow down the soon-to-be three-time MVP.

With Jamal Murray operating at less than 100%, the Timberwolves should continue to give the defending champs all they can handle. 

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🌬 It’s another windy day in Chicago. A Wrigley Field under leads the way in Monday’s MLB picks.

🐕 So you’re telling me there’s a chance? The Cavaliers open as massive dogs to the Celtics in Round 2.

😛 Speaking of close finishes, NASCAR’s finish broke history this weekend. Runner-up Chris Beuscher has a plan for next time, though.

🫢 Toronto lost its seventh straight winner-take-all playoff game. The odds of them accomplishing such a feat are impressive.

🤦‍♂️ No other way to put it; Ben Kohles blew it. His gaffe on 18 at the Byron Nelson allowed Taylor Pendrith to grab his first PGA win.  

🐶 Never too early to draft your best ball teams. Get prepped with Overzet’s early Underdog ADP targets.

NHL Best Bets

Round 2 of the NHL playoffs officially began last night with the Rangers beating Carolina in Game 1. Tonight, the second Eastern Conference series begins with the Panthers hosting Boston. Geoff Ulrich breaks down that game and more Round 2 bets in today’s preview….

😼 Florida Panthers Win in Regulation (+100; bet365)

Of course, there are reasons to fear the Bruins. They are riding high after their win over Toronto, have a top-tier goalie in Jeremy Swayman, and potentially the best forward in this series in David Pastrnak. But even when you stack together all the reasons to like Boston, it’s still not enough for me to lay off Florida.

On top of having the obvious rest advantage (Boston played in Game 7 on Saturday night), Florida has been the better team all season. The Panthers were better at creating chances 5v5 (5th in xGF% vs. 18th for Boston) and have a far better penalty-kill than Toronto, which should negate the Bruins’ biggest edge in this series.

Boston may have had the Panthers number in the regular season (4-0) but that’s not a trend I think we should rely on in the postseason. Two of those wins came in OT, and Florida was missing several key players for heavy stretches this season. As they showed in Round 1 when they dismantled the Lightning, this team is tough to beat when completely healthy.

For betting, I do like the Panthers Win Game 1 / Win Series double (+112; FanDuel), but I also don’t mind dabbling on the regulation line. The +100 line on bet365 is slightly bigger than it is at DraftKings, and the huge rest disparity between these teams means there is likely a bigger chance of a Florida blowout tonight than there will be later on in the series.

The Oilers (-260; DraftKings) are heavy favorites in their second-round series against the Canucks. I expect Edmonton’s offensive prowess to allow them to prevail, but I also think it could be a closer series than expected. Hence, I don’t want to take them on any series lines.

A better way to gain leverage if you like Edmonton may be in the player prop markets. Edmonton has very condensed scoring, with forwards Zach Hyman and Leon Draisiatl combining for 12 goals in the first round alone. Hyman is an absolute machine around the net, but Draisaitl is the more dynamic player and harder to shut down. He’s also torched the Canucks over his career and has goals against them in four of his last five meetings.

Regardless, if we like Edmonton to win this series (or go to seven games), it’s very likely we’ll see an Oiler lead the series in goals. In that scenario, Hyman and Draisaitl would be the two heavy favorites to prevail in that market. Draisaitl (+400) has a slightly larger price on FanDuel than Hyman (+340), and with the German coming off the big series against L.A., his prop makes sense to target as an alternative way to bet on the Oilers in Round 2.