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🤝 Saturday Meets NFL
Three days a week is not enough...
The college regular season is over, but Saturdays are still for football…
In today’s Betting Life newsletter presented by Prop Drop:
Saturday Injuries: Nothing too terrible.
TNF Redux: Points, points, points…
CIN vs. MIN: Jefferson returns!
IND vs. PIT: Minshew. Trubisky. Epic.
DET vs. DEN: Coach of the Year faceoff.
It’s 12/16: Take it away, Matthew Freedman…
Today, the powers of pigskin have granted us three NFL games. Matt LaMarca and Geoff Ulrich highlight their favorite bets for these games later in the newsletter, but here I want to note the injuries that might be impactful.
For my betting thoughts on the games, check out the special “Saturday edition” of the Betting Life Show.
🐯 Bengals vs. Vikings
The Bengals have a clean injury report. TE Drew Sample (illness) is the only starter in theoretical danger of missing the game, but I expect him to play through his questionable tag.
The Vikings, though, will be without two offensive starters: RB Alexander Mattison (ankle) and RT Brian O’Neill (ankle), neither of whom practiced this week.
But on the positive side, the Vikings injury situation isn’t nearly as bad as it could’ve been: They’ll have back RG Ed Ingram (hip) and LG Dalton Risner (ankle), and WR Justin Jefferson (chest) should return to action (despite his questionable tag), given that he practiced fully on Thursday.
🐴 Colts vs. Steelers
The Colts will once again be without RT Braden Smith (knee) and RB Jonathan Taylor (thumb), but on defense they should get a boost with the return of CB JuJu Brents (quad) and LB E.J. Speed (knee), both of whom practiced in full.
The Steelers will also get a defensive assist with the return of EDGEs T.J. Watt (concussion) and Alex Highsmith (concussion), both of whom cleared the protocol thanks (in part) to the three extra days off TNF.
But the Steelers will still be without QB Kenny Pickett (ankle). Of course, as I mentioned in the Thursday Betting Life Newsletter, the move from Pickett to backup Mitchell Trubisky might not be a downgrade. (For more, check out our QB ATS Value Chart).
🦁 Lions vs. Broncos
The Lions have three offensive starters — C Frank Ragnow (knee, back, toe), LT Taylor Decker (back), and WR Josh Reynolds (back) — listed as questionable, but all seem likely to suit up. The same is true for DT Benito Jones (neck).
Ragnow exited Week 13 early and missed Week 14, but his return this week should help the OL.
The Broncos are without SS Kareem Jackson (suspended) and might be without his backup in S P.J. Locke (neck), who is questionable after missing practice on Wednesday and Thursday and getting in only a limited session on Friday.
They’re also without rotational EDGE Nik Bonitto (knee) and TE Greg Dulcich (hamstring, foot - IR).
For everything you need for the Week 15 Saturday slate — including our inactives page — you can get to your destination with a mere click of a button.
See our suite of tools to get you ready for today’s slate below:
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Vikings-Bengals may not feel like a game between two potential playoff teams on the surface, but both teams are very live for the postseason at 7-6. Matt LaMarca dives into his favorite ways to bet this contest.
I want to start this by saying that I’m a fan of Jake Browning. He’s more than held his own since taking over for the injured Joe Burrow. He’s averaged 9.2 adjusted yards per attempt, and only Brock Purdy has been better in terms of EPA + CPOE composite. In other words, he’s not just surviving; he’s thriving.
However, digging a little deeper exposes some concerns. Among 52 QBs with at least 38 pass attempts this season, Browning ranks 51st in average intended air yards per attempt. He's averaged only 3.7 air yards on his completions, his receivers have gotten an average of 7.3 yards after the catch on his passes. That kind of profile screams “regression” moving forward.
I still think Browning can be a viable NFL backup, but this feels like the perfect opportunity to sell high. The sharps have been all over the Vikings this week, securing 76% of the spread dollars on just 56% of the bets (per the Action Network).
Ideally, a reasonably priced +3.5 will pop back up before kickoff, but I’m comfortable playing +3.0 either way.
Vikings +3.5
Jefferson Anytime TD
Jefferson 100+ receiving yards
Browning Under 240.5 passing yards
The premise of this SGP is pretty simple: Sell high on Browning and the Bengals, and buy low on Jefferson and the Vikings.
Most games with 100 receiving yards and a TD through their first 3 seasons:
Randy Moss, 16
John Jefferson, 14
Odell Beckham Jr., 13
Justin Jefferson, 13
Ja'Marr Chase 12— Jay Morrison (@ByJayMorrison)
5:06 PM • Dec 8, 2023
I did buy the half point with Minnesota, pushing the number from +3.0 to +3.5 for a little added security.
That said, I also like the idea of swapping that out for Vikings ML, which increases the odds from +1198 to +1480. It’s slightly riskier, but I think the odds of the Vikings winning the game outright are strong if the other legs come through.
Colts-Steelers: Yet another game with two backup QBs, but it’s a football game in December. Cherish it now, my friends. Geoff Ulrich gives his favorite plays.
Play to: Steelers ML +100
Coming off two terrible losses and with their playoff hopes in the balance, the Steelers look to be in one of the prime “buy-low” spots that have made Mike Tomlin a popular coach with bettors over the year.
Pittsburgh is 86-57-6 ATS under Tomlin in games that close with the Steelers set as underdogs or favored by 3.0 points or less. Further, while the Colts have out-performed for much of this season they were exposed badly last week by the Bengals, whose RBs broke a ton of big plays against their defense – a unit that now ranks 16th in overall EPA per play and 29th in success rate against the run.
Both teams have less-than-ideal QB situations, but with EDGEs Alex Highsmith and T.J. Watt playing, the chances of Gardner Minshew (13 turnovers in 13 games) turning the ball over increase exponentially. Pittsburgh is certainly a solid moneyline candidate (+105) in this spot and also makes for a great teaser play (+1.5 to +7.5) if the line stays in the +1.5-2.5 range as well.
60+ (+200)
80+ (+500)
90+ (+800)
Play to +180 | +450 | +750
I bet the over on Jaylen Warren’s total carries in our FREE bet tracker this week and do think this is a spot where Warren is likely to excel, both in volume and efficiency.
The Colts defense has gone downhill between the tackles since they cut loose LB Shaq Leonard and now sit 29th as a group in success rate against the run. Last week the RBs for the Bengals managed 229 total yards against Indianapolis and since Week 10 the Colts have allowed 5 different RBs to rush for 75 yards or more against them.
While he’s coming off a slow game, he did go for 80+ yards in three straight games, between Week’s 9 to 11 – despite never seeing more than 15 carries in those starts. Even with those big games, and the good matchup, we’re still getting +500 and +800 (16.6% and 11.1% implied probability) to bet he goes over 80 and 90 yards. Warren’s a good buy-low candidate and great ladder target for betting in Week 15.
Saturday’s nightcap features a matchup between two squads heading in opposite directions. The Broncos have won six of their past seven games, while the Lions have lost two of their past three. Can Detroit bounce back in this spot? Matt LaMarca breaks down his best bets for Broncos-Lions.
The line movement in this contest has been fascinating this week. The early action came in on Detroit, pushing the Lions up to -5.5 at some locations. Since then, the action has come back in on the Broncos. They’re as low as +4.0 at some sportsbooks, but you can still find a +4.5 (-108) on DraftKings.
I think the Broncos are the correct side at the current numbers. Their defense has thrived during their recent streak, ranking third in EPA/play since Week 7. They’ve been top-seven against the run and the pass, and they’ve allowed 15.6 points per game over that time frame.
Meanwhile, the Lions’ D is headed in the opposite direction. They’re 30th in EPA/play defensively since Week 7, which has been a major issue. They’ve allowed at least 26 points in six of their past seven contests, and if not for an improbable comeback win over the Bears in Week 11, they’d be just 3-4 during that stretch.
The Lions are the better team offensively, but the Broncos have held their own on that side of the ball. Russell Wilson has improved in his second season in Denver, while they’ve had some success recently on the ground.
Ultimately, these two squads are separated by just 0.2 points in the Massey-Peabody Power Ratings. Getting more than a field goal with the Broncos makes a ton of sense.
60+ receiving yards: +118
80+ receiving yards: +235
100+ receiving yards: +450
Most people expected Jerry Jeudy to operate as the Broncos’ No. 1 receiver this season, but it has been Sutton instead. He leads the team in target share (23%), air yards share (39%), and endzone share (42%), and while he’s yet to crack 100 receiving yards this season, this could be the spot where he does.
The Lions are 23rd in terms of fantasy points allowed to opposing receivers, and they’re 31st in dropback EPA since Week 7. They allowed 119 yards to Chris Olave in Week 13, 94 yards to Christian Watson in Week 12, and 96 yards to D.J. Moore in Week 11, so they’re no strangers to allowing big games to opposing receivers.