Sack Props, Sogginess, and Rollercoasters

It's TNF, baby! Harrumph to your low game totals!

November 21, 2024

Nov. 21, 2024

TNF Preview: Cleveland (8-2) at Pittsburgh (2-8):  Just in case Browns/Steelers didn’t already scream AFC divisional rock-fight, it’s time to grab your leather helmets, people! We have a 37-point game total in damp and soggy (could we get snow??) Cleveland on a dreary Thursday night.

Nature is healing … let it wash over you.

John Laghezza

Let’s start with the downtrodden Brownies. What is there to say, with revulsion? Jameis Winston has as many wins in three games (1) as Deshaun Watson managed in six, so there’s that. The positive tones may end there, though. 

Anywhere you turn your head toward Cleveland we see flaws, weaknesses, and general frustration. Not to relitigate the obvious disaster that was the Watson era but it’s hard to recover from that level of failure. CLE ranked dead last yards/game, EPA/play, and yards/play before the swap. Fine, I’ll hat-tip the staff for at least having a viable backup, unlike Miami. But Winston’s a rollercoaster if there ever was one—and I only hope you’re on an empty stomach if taking a ride on The Gunslinger. Could you imagine a more Jameis Winston runout than bookending a three-pick nightmare with two mistake-free +335-yard passing games? Therein lies the rub for me, given the matchup and gross conditions.

Russell Wilson is hogging the headlines without a sandwich in hand, but it’s the defense making the real impact. By the numbers, Pittsburgh is top-5 in scoring and drive efficiency and that itself may lack context. The Steelers are healthy and improving weekly, coming off two shutdown performances against WAS and BAL, two of the NFL’s top offenses. Holding the Ravens and Commanders to 42 points on just 400 total passing yards is nothing to sneeze at. It all centers around monster DE T.J. Watt. He’s vying for Defensive Player Of The Year, wreaking constant havoc by collapsing the opposition’s interior—he’s up to 27 pressures, 12 tackles for loss, 4 forced fumbles, and 7.5 sacks. Wow. Then, if you actually manage to get the throw off, there’s only a 61% chance of completing it under normal conditions. Rough scene.

The Browns’ offense drew its healthy share of offseason skepticism, but who can honestly say they saw the defense regressing to this degree? There were no major shakeups to warrant the call … yet here we are. Don’t forget, by most objective measures, this defensive unit was a wagon last year. They finished first overall in EPA/snap, commanding specific game plans on a weekly basis. Plenty of talent still shows occasionally, but it’s possible their aggressive nature sometimes works against them. All the pressure stats pop (hurries, sacks, etc), but an inability to make the first tackle allows RBs into the secondary for explosive plays. CLE also plays a lot of man-under Cover-3, partly responsible for the league’s worst yards/reception allowed.

As far as Cleveland’s arrow points down on paper, Pittsburgh is going through the exact opposite. “Winners of five straight through a questionable quarterback change” doesn’t do it justice. Justin Fields always felt a little too erratic to steer the Steel City’s ship and apparently Mike Tomlin agreed. He earned his “big bucks” taking a risk to make a swap under center with a 4-2 record—not something you see every day. The result? Like everything else in black and yellow, it worked out peachy. Russell the muscle’s been a steadying force since taking over signal-calling, averaging 77.5 more passing yards/game.

Funny enough, Wilson has a lower completion rate than Fields on the season. Go figure. However, it’s really Mr. Unlimited’s ability to ball-handle in the play-action game that perfectly complements PIT’s trench-style warfare. Needless to say, all this bodes poorly for Cleveland, which seems to be on the wrong side of every matchup tonight. LEAN: PIT -3.5

You can use our NFL Game Betting Model to identify the biggest edges on game totals, spreads, and moneylines!

What else is in today’s newsletter?

  • The Watercooler: Deep CFB picks for the weekend, Wicked reviews, and more

  • Laghezza + Fantasy Life models agree on a TNF bet!

  • The Cam Heyward O/U bet to jump on after you forward this newsletter to a couple friends

THE WATERCOOLER

The latest analysis and insights from our merry band of sports betting nerds:

💰Thor’s CFB best bets are up… and he has some deep cuts. Appalachian State? Kennesaw State?? Come tail with us!

📺 Speaking of college ball, Thor and Claudia Bellofatto take a closer look at Heisman and “to make the playoffs” futures bets

🔮 For my fantasy people, here’s my Week 12 start/sit column with Gene Clemons. We go deep every week. Strap in.

🧙 “Normal person” link here… I know a lot of us are trying to plot out when to take the girls to Wicked. It’s getting incredible reviews.

⛳ Last golf event of the year. We have picks!!

TNF BETTING

THE BET: PITTSBURGH STEELERS -3.5 (-110) DraftKings

It’d be weird to write such a lopsided novella and not act on it, right? Betting’s always such a clash of internal conflicts, I love it. On one hand, we want to be supremely confident in our picks. No remorse, no regret. No retreat, and no surrender. On the other hand, is that little thing called reality. You know, the crushing disbelief that sinks in as everything seemingly goes wrong from the jump. So we want to bet proactively into strong analysis via our models without being a jerk about it. Ha! Kidding aside, bettors constantly toe the line of confidence and arrogance—it’s just a matter of pulling ourselves back when we land on the wrong side.

Pittsburgh’s going to try and establish the run in the muck tonight with snow on the ground. The ground game has admittedly underwhelmed though not for lack of trying (second-highest 52.4% rush rate). Neither Najee Harris nor Jaylen Warren boast a yards/carry over 4.0, positive yards over expectation, or a +5% explosive rush rate this season. However, as I mentioned before, the matchup is still perfect on paper. Cleveland tends to get behind RBs at times in over-pursuit and then not finish. The year-to-date stats reflect this, standing out in the worst way.

  • 4.8 Yards Allowed Per Rush: T-28th

  • 3.53 Yards Allowed After Contact Per Rush: 31st

  • 14 +20-Yard Carries: 31st

  • 11.3% Explosive Rush Rate: 30th

Keep those broken tackles in mind. According to PFF, Harris trails only James Conner in missed tackles forced. With Warren back to his normal annoying handcuff role, I’m pumping the brakes on my usual rush props to go against the spread instead. The drive-scoring efficiency stats (image below) put me over the top.

I even did a little confirmation bias check, using our handy-dandy in-house model (which I love) to see if I totally missed the mark. Nope. It agrees (woohoo), posting PIT closer to -5 than -3.5 — precisely in line with my own work.

TNF BETTING

THE BET: Cameron Heyward, PIT OVER 0.5 Sacks (+145) DraftKings

We’re pushing up against the point it’s just about enough from me so I’ll keep this last one brief. I laid out what I hope is a compelling case for Cleveland’s struggles. You can see things going wrong in real-time—it’s no secret teams generally don’t aim for +44 pass attempts a game. So I have the Browns playing from behind (again), and forced to throw a ton (again), except now they’re missing another starter on the O-line. Split left/right tackle Dawand Jones left last week’s game right onto the IR with a lower-leg injury. Punch another hole into the Swiss cheese.

The Browns already allowed a league-worst 15.0 hurries/game this month and 9 sacks of Winston in the last two games alone. Meanwhile PIT’s top-5 in sacks per dropback and total QB knockdowns. We’re talking about a perfect recipe for another half-dozen sacks, with one hopefully coming from behemoth DL Cameron Heyward. The former first-round veteran’s still doing his thing, second on the team in sacks (5) and splash plays (20) behind only T.J. Watt. No shame there. And the price is lovely too for what it’s worth.

THE BET: Cameron Heyward, PIT Over 0.5 Sacks (+145) DK

Make sure to check out our Player Projections to compare 

SHARP HUNTER

Where Are The Sharps Leaning For TNF?

Source: Sharp Hunter

Don’t look now, but the Steelers might actually be good.

We’ll get a look at one of the surprise teams in the AFC on Thursday night when they travel to Cleveland to take on Jameis Winston and the Browns.

The Steelers find themselves a 3.5-point road favorite in this AFC North battle. We’re looking at a low total—a 36.5-point consensus as of Wednesday Night.

Note the forecast calls for rain and maybe even a snow shower during the game—in addition to wind gusts north of 30 MPH. 

At Sharp Hunter, we track sharp bets from hundreds of bettors every day, rain or shine.

Our sharps seem to like the underdog Browns in this spot, as we show a Three-Bag Sharp Score on Cleveland +3.5.

I’m betting with the sharps here.

The Browns were in that game early against the Saints before their kicker missed a pair of chip shots and Taysom Hill hit some huge plays. It got away from them, but there have been plenty of signs that the Browns have reacted positively to the change at QB. The market might not be there yet, but I think the Browns are better now than they were a month ago.

Meanwhile the Steelers … they’re good! But they still rank 22nd in DVOA on offense. I can see both teams struggling to score points in this spot—especially if the weather slows down the passing game.

We wrote last week about Mike Tomlin as a dog and how he’s become an auto-bet for me when his team is getting points. As a road favorite of over a field goal, he’s just 22-35-2 ATS. Yikes. That is a trend in the Browns’ favor.

And the underdog has been the right side when teams from this division meet up—over the last five-plus seasons they’re a solid 48-31 ATS.

I like the under here. I see a low-scoring game and I'll be happy to take the points in that setting. Add in some positive trends in our favor and some wet weather, and I can see why the sharps at Sharp Hunter like the Browns.

I do too. Let’s hope we’re both on the right side on Thursday Night. Browns +3.5.

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