What is in today’s newsletter?

1. An early season NFL OPOY target to get your blood pumping before preseason starts.

2. Matthew Freedman breaks down QB rushing props you should be jumping on.

3. Watercooler: Geoff walks you through this week’s 3M Open.

De’Von Achane: Offensive Player of the Year (+6000; DraftKings)

by Geoff Ulrich

De’Von Achane posted some insane efficiency metrics last year. 

• He led the league in explosive rushes per carry and in yards after contact, per attempt (3.0) (min. 100 caries)

• He posted a league-leading eight explosive rushes of 40+ yards and totaled 11 TDs (despite playing just 11 games)

• As noted by Ian Hartitz in his Miami Dolphins season preview, Achane also averaged 7.8 yards per carry; the most efficient season in NFL history (for any RB with more than 100 attempts) since Jamaal Charles posted 6.4 YPA in 2010

Right now Achane’s main competition for carries is 32-year-old Raheem Mostert – who is at an age cliff in terms of production – and a day-three selection in rookie Jaylen Wright. Despite this, and the fact the Dolphins have been a top-eight offense in EPA per play in both seasons under Mike McDaniel, Achane is still being vastly discounted in the OPOY odds; especially compared to peers like Kyren Williams (+3500; DraftKings) and Jahmyr Gibbs (+2800; DraftKings), who have stiff competition for touches themselves. 

After missing six games last season, Achane has already bulked up in an effort to offset the rigors of a full NFL season and, in theory, make himself a more effective between-the-tackles back. Last year he averaged just 10.1 carries per game, while Mostert averaged 13.9. However, if those numbers flip (and honestly, if the Dolphins are smart, they should) — or Mostert gets taken out of the equation completely (by injury or ineffectiveness) — Achane’s workload could skyrocket. 

Factor in his insane efficiency numbers and an offensive genius in McDaniel calling plays, and it’s not hard to imagine Achane posting a season on par statistically with what recent OPOY award winners, RBs Christian McCaffrey (2023) and Derrick Henry (2020), were able to achieve.

Given that Achane is also entering preseason healthy, and the Dolphins have already discussed getting him more touches, he’s also a favorite to have what I would refer to as “a positive newsflow cycle” during preseason. If that occurs, the current +6000 line on him will likely drop more in line with the current odds on backs like Gibbs and Williams, making him someone to target sooner rather than later.

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QB Rushing Props To Bet For The 2024 NFL Season

by Matthew Freedman

I've recently updated my 2024 NFL player projections (accessible with a FantasyLife+ subscription), so now I'm diving into the season-long player props markets.

Here are a couple QB rushing props I like.

In case you missed it, check out my previous thoughts on the rookie futures and awards markets, rookie season-long props, and QB passing props (logged in our FREE Fantasy Life Bet Tracker).

Lamar Jackson: Over 675.5 Yards Rushing

• Bet: -110 (DraftKings)

• Projection: 778.1

I usually loathe betting season-long overs. Generally, unders tend to be sharp.

But QB rushing props are a possible exception to the under-is-better guideline.

While sportsbooks are often close to competent at projecting passing production for QBs, rushing production is secondary for the position and thus likelier to be something the books get wrong.

In fantasy football, think about how much the draft market for years undervalued and mispriced rushing QBs. I imagine that something similar might also be happening with how sportsbooks approach QBs who rely on rushing for an elevated share of their overall production.

And that leads me to Jackson, who has been one of the best and most consistent running QBs since entering the league in 2018.

As I mentioned in my article on 11 stats from 2023 that mean something for 2024, even though Jackson rushed for "only" 51.3 yards per game last year, he still managed 821 yards rushing in his second MVP campaign, and he led all regular starters with his 11% scramble rate (per our industry-leading Utilization Report).

Despite running less often, Jackson still has a high rushing production floor, evidenced by the fact that he has literally never rushed for fewer than 675.5 yards in a season, including his rookie year, when he started not even half the season.

I've said this before, and I'll say it again, because I think it's reasonable: If you give me the opportunity at inexpensive odds to bet that something that has never happened before will once again not happen, I'll probably do it.

Anthony Richardson: Over 525.5 Yards Rushing

• Bet: -112 (FanDuel)

• Projection: 622.8

Richardson was a raw prospect who started just one season in college while completing just 54.7% of his undergraduate attempts.

And then last year as a rookie he started just four games and managed a completion rate of only 59.5%.

And yet he's often the No. 5 QB off the board in 2024 Underdog fantasy drafts (per our Fantasy Life ADP Tool).

That should give you a sense of the extent to which fantasy investors expect Richardson to tear it up on the ground this season.

Even though his prop of 525.5 yards is high among QBs, it's almost certainly still not high enough.

I haven't seen a single projections set that has Richardson to the under, including our official Fantasy Life projections, where the sharp Dwain McFarland has him slated for 633 yards.

The latest analysis and insights from our merry band of football nerds:

⛳ The 3M Open starts this week as the PGA TOUR heads to Minnesota. Your early week course preview and player target are here.

🏆 Xander Schauffele took down his second major in three months this weekend. Bettors who invested early got paid off nicely.

🫠 It’s been a bad week for USA Basketball. South Sudan (+43.5) nearly pulled off the upset of the century.

👀 ICYMI: DraftKings released NBA win totals for the 2024-25 season. We’ve got you covered with which to target.

🤦‍♂️ The most epic miscalculation in sports history. Never take your foot off the gas people. 

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