🎉 Ringing in the New Year

Picks & plays for New Year's Day

January 01, 2024

Pres by BetMGM

I’m only here to bet the NFL and college football, and I’m just about out of NFL…

In today’s Betting Life newsletter presented by BetMGM:

  • Key absences and best bets for the three early bowl games

  • Alabama @ Michigan: Trust Saban’s big game experience?

  • Mike Tomlin… Inevitable

  • Texas @ Washington: Defense. FTW?

  • Early Week 18 Betting Lines: Ride with C.J. Stroud

  • It’s 1/1: Take it away, Matt LaMarca…

New Year’s Day is for two things – nursing hangovers and betting on college football. No exceptions.

The semifinal games are garnering most of the attention, but three other games are available to kick off the slate. Wisconsin will take on LSU in the ReliaQuest Bowl at noon ET, followed by Liberty vs. Oregon in the Fiesta Bowl and Iowa vs. Tennessee in the Citrus Bowl at 1 p.m. ET.

If you’re new to bowl betting, it’s an entirely different animal than betting on the regular season. Most teams are dealing with significant absences due to transfer requests, injuries, or opt-outs, so it’s essential to keep track of who is actually going to be on the field.

Let’s dive into some of the most important absences – and best bets – for the premier contests before Mark Drumheller gives us a deep dive on Alabama-Michigan and Texas-Washington.

🦡 Wisconsin vs. LSU (12 p.m. ET, ESPN2)

  • Wisconsin absences: RB Braelon Allen (opt-out), C Tanor Bortolini (opt-out), CB Jason Maitre (opt-out), WR Chimere Dike (transfer), WR Skyler Bell (transfer), LB Jordan Turner (transfer), DL Rodas Johnson (transfer), CB Alexander Smith (injury), RB Chez Mellusi (injury)

  • LSU absences: QB Jayden Daniels (opt-out), CB Sage Ryan (transfer), CB Zy Alexander (injury)

Wisconsin is dealing with more starters missing, but LSU’s absences are more critical. Heisman Trophy winner Jayden Daniels will opt out to prepare for the NFL Draft, while they’re down two starters at cornerback. They’re also missing two depth players at corner, so they will be pretty thin on the back end.

There’s been some sharp activity on Wisconsin, driving this number down from the opening line of 10.5 to the current line of 8.5. LSU has plenty of raw talent, but the downgrade from Daniels to Garrett Nussmeier has the potential to be steep.

Also, keep an eye on the statuses of WRs Brian Thomas and Malik Nabers. Both players are expected to play but could be last-minute opt-outs. Regardless, I like the Badgers to cover the number.

Best Bet: Wisconsin +9.0 (-110; Caesars)

🧡 Iowa vs. Tennessee (1 p.m. ET, ABC)

  • Iowa absences: QB Cade McNamara (injury), CB/PR Cooper DeJean (injury), TE Luke Lachey (injury)

  • Tennessee absences: QB Joe Milton (opt-out), RB Jaylen Wright (opt-out), backup RB Jabari Small (opt-out), DE Tyler Baron (transfer), S Wesley Walker (transfer), CB Doneiko Slaughter (transfer), slot CB Tamarion McDonald (transfer), RG Javontez Spraggins (injury)

Tennessee is dealing with a laundry list of transfers and opt-outs, and things are honestly even worse than depicted above. They lost several starters due to injury earlier this season, so they’re down to the bottom of their depth chart at a bunch of positions.

That includes QB, where freshman Nico Iamaleava will make the first start of his career. He’s played just 52 snaps this season, but he has the pedigree of a future Top-10 NFL Draft pick. He was the No. 2 recruit in his class – trailing only Arch Manning – so he has the potential to be special.

Meanwhile, the Hawkeyes are essentially at full strength. They lost McNamara and Lachey early in the year, while DeJean has been out since Week 11. They’re getting back some players on the offensive line, so they’re actually in better shape than they were at the end of the regular season.

Tennessee has dipped from -7.5 to -5.5 given all their absences, and I’m interested in buying low at that figure. I’m intrigued by Iamaleava, and even at full strength, the Hawkeyes’ offense leaves much to be desired.

Best Bet: Tennessee -5.5 (-110; FanDuel)

🗽 Liberty vs. Oregon (1 p.m. ET, ESPN)

  • Liberty absences: CB Preston Hodge (transfer)

  • Oregon absences: C Jackson Powers-Johnson (opt-out), WR Troy Franklin (opt-out), CB Khyree Jackson (520 snaps)

As I wrote about in my CFB Best Bets article (8-1 so far during bowl season!) this is Liberty’s Super Bowl. It’s not an exaggeration to say this may be their only New Year’s Day Bowl ever. They only became a full-fledged FBS school in 2019, so the fact that they’ve ascended the ranks this quickly has been super impressive.

On the other side, Oregon has to be disappointed to be here. They had legit National Championship aspirations, but subpar performances against Washington doomed them to a “meaningless” bowl game vs. Liberty.

Oregon will have stud QB Bo Nix available for this game – which is somewhat surprising – but I still like the Flames to keep this competitive. This number is up to +18.0 at some locations, and that seems like too many points.

Best Bet: Liberty +18.0 (-110; Caesars)

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Bama @ UM

The first game of the CFB playoffs could be a classic. Two blue-blood programs. Two elite head coaches. Plenty of NFL talent. Can Michigan make up for last year’s loss to TCU, or will Alabama write another chapter in the Nick Saban storybook? Mark Drumheller breaks it down:

Alabama's path to victory starts on the defensive side of the ball. 

The Crimson Tide have to neutralize Michigan’s rushing attack on early downs and I'm confident in Saban deploying a scheme to stop Michigan from bullying their way to manageable third downs. If they can force Michigan into passing situations, Alabama's swarming pass rush, led by projected first-round pick Dallas Turner (LB), will take over the game. That’s where the absence of injured right guard Zak Zinter could loom large for the Wolverines. 

Alabama’s ability to generate explosive plays is also a big reason they are getting my money in this matchup. 

That’s the only way you can crack Michigan's No. 1-rated defense. With Milroe under center, Alabama ranks sixth in the nation in explosive pass plays of 40+ yards, and his dual-threat ability will stretch Michigan to cover the entire field. If QB Jalen Milroe can connect on big plays early in the game, the weight of the world will be on the shoulders of the Wolverines.  

After last season’s upset loss to TCU, Michigan has to prove they can respond in the face of adversity before I can back them in a game of this magnitude. They have played with the lead in all but 42 snaps (2.7%), while Alabama has come back to win eight games in which it trailed this season. Nick Saban has historically delivered in the rare underdog role (3-1 S/U in his last four), and this will mark the first time in 235 games his Crimson Tide will not be the betting favorite in back-to-back games. 

I can’t pass up the opportunity to grab +2.0 with Alabama. 

Michigan wants to play Big Ten football. McCarthy only lets it fly 24.2 times a game on average, which ranks 119th out of 133 FBS teams. If you isolate Michigan’s three games against ranked opponents (Penn St., Ohio St., Iowa), McCarthy threw for an average of 119 yards without eclipsing the 150-yard mark. This number feels like a big ask against a talented Alabama secondary led by potential Top-10 pick Kool-Aid McKinstry. 

  • Alabama ML

  • Over 44.5

  • McCarthy Under 191.5 passing yards

  • Jalen Milroe anytime TD 

Hey, it’s playoff time. Let’s see if we can turn these four legs into a 12-1 payout. We start with pairing Alabama with the over. Conventional wisdom whispers “under” in our ear with these two defenses, but remember, there is more blowout potential in a playoff game. If one side gets a lead, the trailing team’s forced aggressiveness can lead to a run of turnovers and short fields. 

After adding my favorite prop (McCarthy under 191.5 passing yards), let’s sprinkle in an anytime touchdown for Milroe. It’s hard to imagine a scenario where Alabama is victorious without Milroe breaking off a touchdown run.

Watercooler

💔 DJ.. DJ… DJ not gonna work here anymore? Avert your eyes, Chark over bettors.

🏗 Death. Taxes. Mike Tomlin. The GOAT underdog coach extends his streak to 17 years.

✍️ Reviewing the Sunday slate with an eye for the future. Unexpected Points has you covered.

🎉 Get on these odds before they plummet! No one should ever leave their house on New Year’s Eve. 

WAS @ UT

The second game might not have the same name value, but it’s expected to feature more scoring. Washington and Texas both rank in the top 13 in points per game, but will they get the job done on New Year’s Day? Mark Drumheller dives in…

Red-zone inefficiency drives games under the total. That’s the Achilles heel of this Longhorns offense. Steve Sarkasian’s unit fails to punch it in on over half of its red-zone trips, ranking 119th among all FBS teams. 

Texas’ nasty defensive front will limit QB Michael Penix Jr.’s ability to expose the Longhorn’s 94th-ranked pass defense. The Huskies’ high-flying offense is fueled by Penix Jr.'s innate ability to buy time outside the pocket before launching missiles downfield. 

I am betting time will not be a luxury considering how quickly the Longhorns can collapse the pocket with T’Vondre Sweat (Big 12 Defensive Player of the Year) and Byron Murphy (Big 12 Defensive Lineman of the Year). 

These two teams played in the Alamo Bowl last season. Washington pulled off a 27-20 win by controlling the clock for over 35 minutes with the short passing game. While it’s unrealistic to expect the same game script to play out twice, I am comfortable that both defenses can make the opposing quarterback uncomfortable enough for this game to slide under the total. 

We always want to get the best number, but remember that 63 isn’t a key number. Since 2017, only 1.91% of games landed on 63, and there is only a .07% difference in frequency from 62 to 61. If this total drops before kickoff, I would play this to 61.5.

CFB Best Bets

The Longhorns rush defense ranks third nationally and gives up a meager 2.87 yards per carry. Texas held Oklahoma’s trio of running backs to 72 combined yards and Alabama’s Jase McClelland to only 45 yards on the ground. 

Johnson has eclipsed his number in eight games this season, but this is by far the most formidable rush defense they have faced. For comparative purposes, Texas grades out eighth via PFF, while Oregon comes in at 40th. 

Huskies’ head coach Kalen DeBoer is sharp enough to find ways to get the ball into Johnson’s hands without running him into a brick wall. Styles make fights, and the interior strength of the Longhorn’s defense has me seeing value on the under.

  • Under 63.5 

  • Johnson under 73.5 rushing yards 

  • Rome Odunze anytime TD 

  • Jalen McMillian over 72.5 receiving yards 

In sports betting, having conviction in your edges is a must. We will start with the two wagers we previously covered: Under 63.5 total points and Johnson under 73.5 rushing yards. 

Now for the fun part. WR Rome Odunze smoked opposing secondaries for 1,428 yards and 13 touchdowns this season. The Longhorns pass-rushers won’t get home on every play, and it’s a solid bet Odunze will be dancing in the endzone when they don’t. 

Our final leg features Jalen McMillan over 72.5 receiving yards. McMillan hauled in a team-leading nine receptions for 131 yards against Oregon, and I’m not convinced the market is correctly projecting his impact in a game where Penix Jr. will be forced to get the ball out quickly. 

Early Betting Lines

Finding early betting value — and grabbing as much closing line value (CLV) as possible — is one of the easiest ways to become a better bettor. Geoff Ulrich dives into his favorite bet to attack early in the week.

🐎 Texans (+1.5) at Indianapolis Colts

  • Current Line: Texans +1.5 (-110; FanDuel)

  • Target Range: Texans -2.5 or better

The Texans righted the ship last week. CJ Stroud – who had missed two games with a concussion – returned immediately to his usual self, completing 75% of passes in a romp over the Titans. The Texans also ran the ball well with Devin Singletary, who averaged over 4.5 yards per carry for the fourth game in a row. It’s a significant development, considering that they were one of the worst rushing offenses in the league through the first half of the year. 

The Colts also managed a win in Week 17. They got a lead against the Raiders and held on late against a somewhat limited offense. A win is a win, but there were some concerning signs from the Colts defense in that game. They allowed Davante Adams to get loose for two TDs, while fourth-round rookie Aiden O’Connell made some key conversions down the stretch.

Early Lines

Both teams have rookie head coaches and some holes on defense, but Houston’s offense is much more potent with Stroud back, ranking 13th in offensive DVOA. The Colts aren’t terrible in that aspect (18th in offensive DVOA), but the edge at QB with Stroud (12th in EPA per play) vs. Gardner Minshew (20th in EPA per play) is a big one and one I’m looking to exploit.

Ultimately, I trust the Texans — and specifically C.J. Stroud — more in this spot to take advantage of their edges.

Houston’s passing offense matches up well with a limited Colts secondary that is 27th in yards per attempt over their last three games. Getting Will Anderson Jr. back last week was also huge for the Texans rush defense, which completely shut down Derrick Henry. 

Grabbing the Texans early in the week makes a ton of sense for betting, too. There’s almost no chance the Colts move to three-point favorites with the popular Stroud healthy, but there is certainly the chance the line moves in Houston’s favor. 

Betting the Texans while they’re still underdogs is one of my favorite spots of the week.

Pres by BetMGM