Do people still have watercoolers? Around the Slack? Here’s what I’m reading …

📋 ICYMI: Every skill-position update you need to know as we continue to forge through NFL Free Agency.

👀 Is this WR washed, or set up for late-career success? Going from one elite QB to another.

⚡️ Keep an eye on rushing-yard props for this potential workhorse. The Chargers may have their backfield answer.

🤝 A retired QB gives Puka Nacua his blessing to assume his former jersey number. Elite content.

😱 The Indiana Pacers ran a … football play? … to secure a last-second win on Tuesday night.

⚾🏛 MLB Team Preview—Washington Nationals 🏛⚾

In an age of organizations waving the competitive white flag so billionaire owners can add a 16th bedroom to their palatial estates, the Nationals deserve a smidgeon of credit. Sporting the seventh-lowest MLB payroll and single-lowest attendance in 2024, the Nationals could’ve easily gone full Chicago White Sox on us.

However, at least General Manager Mike Rizzo went out and acquired viable major league entities like Nathaniel Lowe, Paul DeJong, and Amed Rosario to fill their infield gaps. Washington also brought in four relievers this winter to bolster the bullpen, including resigning Kyle Finnegan, who had the third-most saves in MLB last year. Currently listed at 72.5 wins (-110), just two games better than last year, they’re trending very slowly in the right direction. 

Projected Opening Day Lineup w/BAT X Projections: (BA / R / RBI / HR / SB)

1. CJ Abrams, SS: .247 / 77 / 65 / 18 / 33

2. Dylan Crews, LF: .245 / 69 / 60 / 15 / 23

3. James Wood, RF: .257 / 75 / 67 / 17 / 17

4. Nathaniel Lowe, 1B: .250 / 63 / 62 / 12 / 2

5. Josh Bell, DH: .241 / 57 / 67 / 17 / 0

6. Luis Garci­a Jr., 2B: .269 / 63 / 67 / 15 / 14

7. Keibert Ruiz, C: .234 / 43 / 57 / 13 / 2

8. Paul DeJong, SS: .203 / 31 / 36 / 11 / 3

9. Jacob Young, CF: .244 / 52 / 30 / 2 / 25

Hitting Overview: A few years after winning their franchise's only title, Washington knew they couldn’t retain Juan Soto, so they started wheeling and dealing. The Padres dug deep into their prospect pockets for CJ Abrams and James Wood, a first and second-round pick, respectively. Looking back, of course, every team wants Soto, the 765-million-dollar man but having two of the game’s brightest young stars isn’t the worst consolation prize.

None of that mentions Dylan Crews, the National’s own second overall pick in the 2023 draft. There’s a metric ton of young talent in this order. However,  relying on so much unproven youth is a double-edged sword. If the trio topping their lineup all take a step forward, suddenly the competitive window’s cracked open, and it’s time to start adding some much-needed starting pitching. If they all faceplant, it could usher in a half-decade of darkness to the Nation’s Capital.

Quick in-season betting note: I can already tell from the setup (good lineup, bad rotation, bad bullpen) that the Nationals will be a popular team total bet for me once the season kicks off. Oftentimes, the under .500 teams get punished across the board with broad pessimism, including lower daily team totals than my model’s projections.

Projected Opening Day Rotation (⭐/5):

1. MacKenzie Gore, LHP: ⭐⭐⭐⭐

2. Jake Irvin, RHP: ⭐⭐

3. Mitchell Parker, LHP: ⭐⭐

4. Trevor Williams, RHP: ⭐⭐

5. Michael Soroka, RHP: ⭐

Starting Pitching Overview: It's scary to think this WAS rotation probably outperformed their talent and peripherals in 2024, despite ranking among the bottom ten rotations in both ERA and WHIP.  Outside of another first-rounder MacKenzie Gore, there’s very little oomph in this staff—no one else tops +94 mph, posted a K-BB over 16.5% or swinging strike rate over 11.5%. They’ll be leaning heavily on control, ground balls, defense, and moxie (whatever that means). 

If there’s a bull case to be made, it’s the nice job their pitching coaches have done maximizing limited profiles in Jake “Swirvin” Irvin and Trevor “T-Dub” Williams. Even veteran free agent Mike Soroka looks like Cy Young so far this spring (7.0 IP, 1.29 ERA, 33.3% K-BB), and they’ve got one of my favorite sixth starters in MLB DJ Herz waiting in the wings.

Forced to make a snap call even if you’re high on WAS, the 72.5 win total’s probably right in line with reality due to the degree of difficulty this division will present at the top.

⚾🗽MLB Team Preview—New York Mets🗽⚾

The Mets’ 2025 season’s off to a rough start from the jump, though not from lack of trying. Owner Steve Cohen spent the GDP of a small nation to add free-agent outfielder Juan Soto to an offense that hardly needed the help after making it to the NLCS in 2024. That said, whenever you can afford to bring in a generational talent with a track record of postseason dominance, you do it. 

Unfortunately for the Metropolitans, the league’s injury bug set its sights on them early and often. Before a single game’s been played, both Sean Manaea (oblique) and Frankie Montas (lat strain) already announced they’ll miss time. Losing forty percent of your projected rotation before Opening Day’s never a good thing. While both are still in line to return this season and deliver impactful innings at some point, between ramp-ups and the threat of a setback, I wouldn’t plan on seeing either one anytime soon. But don’t worry, Mets fans—if Uncle Stevie’s track record is any indication, he’ll bust out the pocketbook to bridge any gaps come the trade deadline. 

Jokes aside, aggressive management’s always a critical element in futures betting—and it works in both directions. I’ve gotten stung in the past trying to bet the over on bad teams that even when overperforming early on will turn around and sell everything not bolted to the floor come the All-Star break. Pains me to say it, but the Mets are the new diamond Kings of New York.

Projected Opening Day Lineup w/BAT X Projections: (BA / R / RBI / HR / SB)

1. Francisco Lindor, SS: .254 / 93 / 85 / 29 / 22

2. Juan Soto, RF: .271 / 105 / 94 / 34 / 7

3. Pete Alonso, 1B: .246 / 81 / 95 / 34 / 4

4. Mark Vientos, 3B: .232 / 69 / 82 / 27 / 0

5. Brandon Nimmo, LF: .242 / 76 / 63 / 17 / 6

6. Jesse Winker, DH: .225 / 47 / 40 / 11 / 5

7. Jose Siri, CF: .211 / 51 / 44 / 16 / 15

8. Jeff McNeil, 2B: .242 / 53 / 49 / 9 / 3

9. Luis Torrens, C: .225  / 15 / 16 / 4 / 1

Hitting Overview: New York’s offense is really good, and not just because it starts out with four separate +30 home run bats. Half their lineup posted a double-digit walk rate in 2024, an impact often undersold in team evaluations. Not only do they force pitchers inside the zone, but also stretch out those all-important pitch counts. I pity any starting pitcher with the Mets coming up on the schedule.

At least five hitters in the order posted a +47% Hard Hit, +13% Barrel, or +.400 xwOBAcon last year (wow). That’s not even including former second-round pick Mark Vientos, who’s having a monster spring and didn’t see regular playing time until mid-May. 

Without an easy out in the order beside backup catcher Luis Torrens, they’re going to pose a consistent problem for opposing pitchers. And that’s not all—there’s lots of young talent waiting in the wings, like Brett Baty and Luisangel Acuña to pick up the slack if and when injuries occur. 

New York’s offense projects among the very best in the league, expected to win +90 games for the first time in nearly a decade. Hard not to get excited for this team to finally take the field…

Projected Opening Day Rotation (⭐/5):

1. Kodai Senga, RHP: ⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐

2. David Peterson, LHP: ⭐⭐⭐

3. Clay Holmes, RHP: ⭐⭐⭐

4. Tylor Megill, RHP: ⭐⭐

5. Griffin Canning, RHP: ⭐⭐

Pitching Overview: Losing southpaw Sean Manaea after his breakout campaign (181.2 IP; 3.47 ERA, 1.08 WHIP) last year definitely hurts, but all isn’t lost … yet. Their busy offseason are already paying dividends, with former Yankee Clay Holmes and Griffin Canning ready to fill the void for the time being. It’s often said that a team should roster at least six viable MLB starters entering a season, and maybe it’s time to expand that adage to eight. The more, the merrier, am I right?

I’m especially interested to see how Japanese import Kodai Senga bounces back from the shoulder/calf strains that limited him to just 5.1 IP in 2024. Progenitor of the patented “Ghost Fork”, it easily ranks among the single best pitches in all of MLB (39% Use, .146 xSLG, 59.5% Whiff). If Senga makes all his starts this season, he’ll once again be regarded as a bona fide ace by any objective measure.

New York’s also relying upon a successful conversion from reliever to starter for former Yankee closer Clay Holmes. Once thought of as purely experimental, the list of success stories grows annually (Cole Ragans, Michael King)—and it may be time for that assumption to go the way of the dodo. Holmes’ pitching this spring has been nothing short of fantastic (9.2 IP, 0 ER, 2 H, 13 K), another great sign for the Metsies. 

The staff is rounded out by a pair of former top prospects, David Peterson and Griffin Canning. Despite some struggles, particularly from Canning, they rank comparably to other backend starters and should give NYM a chance to stay competitive nightly until the cavalry arrives.

🔮 Look Into My Crystal Ball: Quick Hit Futures Bets 🔮

Please note the reduced risk on future plays before anything else. If you’re wondering why these wagers are all fractional, it’s not just because I’m responsible, care about you, or happen to be very good at what I do. 

It’s important whenever open-ended betting to always keep bankroll management in mind. Speaking from experience, it’s way too easy to wind up with a season-long ticket carrying more risk exposure than we’re comfortable with. Please bet responsibly, it’s the key to sustainability—you can’t make any money if your account is at $0.

THE BET: Pete Alonso To Lead MLB In RBI (+1400) On DraftKings, Risk (0.10u ONLY)

While it’s true not a single Met hung more than 91 RBI on the ledger in 2024, that was before on-base machine Juan Soto arrived in Queens. Yes, you have to be a very good hitter to win the RBI crown, but it’s also very much a function of the players preceding you in the lineup. Aaron Judge earned that honor last year, hitting behind—you guessed it, Juan Soto.

Polar Bear Pete finished second in runs batted in (118) during the 2023 season in a significantly worse lineup. Following Lindor and Soto could theoretically place runners on base in the majority of Alonso’s at-bats, another RBI projection boost. And playing every day’s certainly going to help the calculus—Alonso’s averaging 157 games played for a massive 669 plate appearances per season over the last four seasons. 

Derek Carty’s inimitable THE BAT X projects Alonso to finish with 97 RBI, the seventh highest in MLB. However, those are mean projections, and frankly, I’d be shocked if the Polar Bear doesn’t at least finish in the triple digits.

Hope you enjoyed today’s Betting Life newsletter! Please feel free to contact me on X @JohnLaghezza with any questions, comments, or feedback. I love hearing back from you!

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