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These Receivers Deserve Some Props
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 | Sept. 8, 2024 |
PRESENTED BY |  |
Looks Like We Made It: No more rankings (unless you’re into that whole “rest of season” stuff for fantasy), no more speculation, no more stalling for content—or citing stats of players wearing a different jersey than they will today. |  John Laghezza |
Secure your wallets. Please keep your hands, arms, feet, hooves, tails, and tusks inside the ride as we prepare for liftoff. And as my buddies down in Tennessee would say: well bless my heart, I’m happier than a tick on a fat dog about it.
Hopefully, by the time you’re getting your daily dose of Betting Life on this fine Sunday, you saved a little bit of room in the budget for my favorite Week 1 player props. New subscribers should make sure to backtrack this letter’s history for our entire ticket thus far or check out MB’s on-site handicappers’ free best bets page.
What’s in today’s newsletter?
I have all the charts you need to jump on the Greg Dortch bandwagon this morning.
Jakobi Meyers charts? YES.
Links to last-minute futures, Emanuel Wilson nuggets, and more.
We have a live fantasy/betting Q&A at 9 am ET on our YouTube channel. Come hang!
WEEK 1 PROPS |  |
Lighting The Dortch 🔥
by John Laghezza
I’ve played the high-man on the 2024 Arizona Cardinals, and I’m riding that exuberance right into Week 1 versus the Bills (our Game Model disagrees, but hey, that’s what makes this all so much fun). In general, squares discount the importance of continuity and just what repetitions mean to an offense’s success. Say hello to Kyler Murray, former first-overall draft pick, finally going through a healthy season with adults at the helm and a retooled WR room. Explain to me how we’re not low on the scoring potential here …
Today’s cap begins with addition by subtraction. The Cards finally moved on from the Rondale Moore experiment, presumably opening the door for Greg Dortch to step into the full-time slot role. Anyone in the fantasy best ball streets can tell you he’s one of the most wide-awake sleepers in years.
Despite starting the 2023 season riding the pine as an afterthought, Dortch played his way into an every-week role. This happened to coincide with Murray’s return—and I believe it’s precisely why Arizona felt fine showing Moore the door. Per TruMedia, in Dortch’s 8 listed starts since 2022 he’s averaging 4.6 Rec/Gm and 6.4 Tar/Gm on the back of a 20% Targets per Route run rate—and that ability to reel in passes continued through Murray’s return (below). Not bad for a “role” player.
Strap in for charts.
Funny that I mentioned Rondale’s departure yet almost forgot something huge. Moore played full-time down the stretch; Dortch could be soaking up the lion’s share of Murray’s insane 29% slot-target rate (below):
There’s no question Buffalo, a top-5 scoring defense, can play. That said, the middle of the field has been vulnerable for the Bills, especially without middle linebacker Matt Milano—who’s already listed out. In 2023, BUF failed to circle the wagons against slot receivers, finishing bottom-10 in defensive EPAvsSlot, allowing the fifth-most total receptions (7.7 per game).
Look carefully and you’ll see the lowest amount they allowed in 2023 … is still higher than our goal—let’s go!
THE BET: Greg Dortch Over 2.5 Receptions (-140) Bet To Win 1.0u (FanDuel)
THE FANTASY LIFE MODEL ALSO LIKES: Higher receiving yards on Underdog and DK (that’s a free one from your buddy John)
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WEEK 1 PROPS |  |
The Law Office Of Jakobi Meyers👨⚖️
by John Laghezza
If you can’t tell by now, I shop in the equivalent of team trash cans for player props (call me … the Raccoon). We covered public perception and its effect on betting last week—long-story short, donkeys love overs on big-market teams. The Raiders … are not that. However, the black and silver at least did go get a replacement-level QB in Gardner Minshew. That sounds like high praise, I know—but he does have a career 62% completion rate and +0.10 EPA/Dropback. It could be worse. Trust me, I’m a Jets fan.
As of this morning, Fantasy Life’s Dwain McFarland projects Minshew for 13.5 points off 216 passing yards and a TD—but with a 61% completion rate!
One thing we do know about the 28-year-old dungaree-vest-wearing rock-and-roller—he locks onto his wideouts, ranking top-10 in target rate to WRs last year and bottom-5 to RBs (below):
We also know Meyers will see a full complement of playing time—he hardly leaves the field, regularly posting elite +94% route rates …
… while constantly showing the ability to earn targets even with suboptimal quarterback play.
And checking Dwain and Freedman’s projections for confirmation—we all produce a median run-out that gets us to the cashier’s window. Let’s go.
Dwain: 6.0 Targets, 3.9 Receptions
Freeland: 6.0 Targets, 3.9 Receptions
Laghezza: 6.0 Targets, 4.0 Receptions
THE BET: Jakobi Meyers Over 3.5 Receptions (-115) Bet To Win 1.0u DK
AROUND THE WATERCOOLER |  |
The latest analysis and insights from around the web, world, and beyond:
Josh Jacobs panic: It took Emanuel Wilson all of one half of football to eat up all the Packers backfield passing work
What are you doing later this morning? We have two experts — Freedman and ME!! — hosting a 90-minute fantasy/betting Q&A starting at 9 am ET. Pop on in, ask your lineup questions, and eat your cereal!
If you want to get some last-minute futures bets in, Freedman has a bunch here.
The Fantasy Life “Parlay Builder” is now live. Get excited.
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