🏈 QB Changes

Some bad teams are making QB switches — as if it will matter…

In today’s Betting Life newsletter presented by the Fantasy Life Prop Finder:

Every week, I publish a best bets article in which I provide notes on the updates in my QB value chart, which directly compares the ATS value of every starter to his backup.

We have several QB changes and injuries this week. Here are my thoughts on some of them.

🪖 Commanders

At last, our long national nightmare is over. In our government’s capital, the Commanders have installed Jacoby Brissett as the starter ahead of Sam Howell. Given that Howell was benched midgame two weeks in a row and markedly outplayed by Brissett (12.3 AY/A), it seemed like this move was an inevitability.

Of course, with the Commanders and HC Ron Rivera, one can never be certain of anything.

I have Brissett projected as an upgrade of +1.9 points relative to Howell.

🍎 Giants

The Tommy DeVito experience was something to behold — and then forget. Five years from now, he’ll probably be a funny bit of nostalgia-imbued trivia.

For now, though, he’s the No. 2 QB behind Tyrod Taylor, who has regained his rightful place ahead of DeVito on the depth chart. I have Taylor projected as a +1.2 upgrade on DeVito -- but he could be significantly more than that.

🐴 Broncos

HC Sean Payton has benched veteran QB Russell Wilson in favor of backup Jarrett Stidham because “we’re desperately trying to win.” Even so, the Broncos were -5.5 favorites on Wednesday before the news broke, and they settled in at -3.5 afterward.

Payton can say all he wants that benching Wilson is about winning now and making a push to the playoffs, but the market is literally betting that Wilson is better than his replacement. I have Stidham as a -3.3 downgrade.

👱 Jaguars

Trevor Lawrence (shoulder) has been battling injuries for a while. This week it’s an AC joint issue. Last week it was a concussion. Before that, it was an ankle. Over the past few weeks, the injured version of Lawrence hasn’t played well (5.0 AY/A).

As a result, the dropoff from Lawrence to backup C.J. Beathard continues to diminish. I now have it at only -3.8 — and there’s no guarantee that the banged-up Lawrence will play this weekend.

⛏️ Steelers

Kenny Pickett (ankle) seems likely to miss another game, and last week Mason Rudolph looked good (12.2 AY/A) in his place. I now have Pickett as just a hair (+0.1) ahead of Rudolph, who has a non-zero chance to steal Pickett’s job — at least for the short term — with another strong performance.

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Jason Scavone from Unabated breaks down the optimal time during the week to make different types of NFL bets…

So. What are we betting today in the NFL? That answer should be different from what we’re betting tomorrow.

Not all bets are created equal and neither are all times to bet. The football week has its own rhythms and beats. You need to be familiar with them if you want to make the best bets you can make depending on where you are in the weekly cycle.

In other words, you don’t want to bet teasers on a Tuesday or bet off injury information on a Wednesday. Here’s how to break it down.

🌞 Sunday

No, not last-minute gameday bets on one more side or total.

Betting markets are at their most efficient shortly before kickoff. That means the books have the sharpest lines they’re going to have all week for main markets. And no one ever got rich betting into sharp lines.

No, on Sunday, if you’re going to bet, you should look at what happens after the game. 

It all starts with postgame news. Was that limping WR as banged up as he looked? Was the starting QB’s third-quarter trip to the tent precautionary, or will it hold him out of practice?

Postgame press conferences might not give you the complete picture on injuries, but some coaches will tip their hand here.

Focus on QBs and injuries that are taking out chunks of a position group. If a team is down to one starter on the offensive line, that may be actionable.

Mostly, though, If you’re going to use that information to inform your bets for the week, be careful not to overestimate the impact injuries will have on the next game. You won’t have a clearer sense of what personnel will be available the following Sunday until injury reports come out on Thursday.

🌝 Monday

With just the Monday night slate left, you have plenty of free time during the day. Which is good, because you’re going to spend it watching coaches’ news conferences.

Coaches will start to reveal just how severe are those injuries sustained over the weekend.

Between injury updates and bettors taking the first crack at early numbers, lines start to shape up on Monday.

🛌 Tuesday & Wednesday

Now you can catch your breath. Tuesday and Wednesday are the slowest days on the football calendar, so if you need to step away and stop thinking about Cover 2 for half a minute, this would be the time. 

But if you just can’t help yourself, you should use these days to decide if you’re playing the Thursday Night Football game. It’s a good time to poke around on those Thursday props. With the limited menu, it shouldn’t take too much away from your football sabbath.

🤑 Paydirt = payday: TNF TD bet…

📺 Line moves, key numbers, and contest plays. How to attack Week 17.

🏀 And now some NBA for you multi-sport sickos: I guess the Hawks are historically bad?

🐎 Maybe we should’ve seen the Russell Wilson benching coming. The Broncos are a third-quarter fiasco.

✍️ Browns, Bills, Battlestar Galactica. Freedman’s best bets for Week 17.

🦁 The most likely wild card and divisional round playoff matchups: Lions. Rams. Stafford. Goff. Necessary.

🍑 A three-year letterman and youth football coaching legend speaks out. The people who take the bait…

💰 Free bets that WIN? Sounds too good to be true? +17.3 units over the past 30 days says otherwise.

🤷‍♂️ Why do we bet on sports? Maybe the money — but lots of other reasons too.

🤔 49ers & Ravens still Nos. 1-2… but who’s No. 3 in the updated Massey-Peabody Power Ratings?

The Browns can officially clinch a postseason spot on Thursday; all they have to do is take care of business against the lowly Jets. Simple enough, right? Matt LaMarca breaks down his best bets for Thursday Night Football.

👍 Best Bet: Under 34.5 (-106, FanDuel)

This is an interesting game from a total perspective. On one hand, neither offense figures to have success moving the ball between the 20s. Flacco and Siemian are both below-average starters — with Siemian being downright bad — and both of these defenses are fantastic.

However, these two QBs are also prone to turnovers. Siemian has a 3.4% INT rate this season, while Flacco is at 4.0%. If both QBs make some mistakes and set up their opponents with short fields, this game could be higher scoring than anticipated. It’s a big reason the Browns are 9-6 to the over this season despite possessing the best defense in football.

Still, I’m taking the under. The Jets have been a great under team despite their QBs turning the ball over at will, posting a 9-6 record. That includes a sparkling 5-1 mark to the under in games with a closing total of 36.0 or lower.

Of course, I am also contractually obligated to mention how good primetime unders have been. The under is now 32-21 in games starting at 7 p.m. ET or later this season (+15.4% ROI), and they’re 154-105-3 dating back to 2019-20 (+14.1% ROI).

As long as the two QBs don’t turn it over too much, I think this game should stay under 34.5. The sharps seem to agree, with the under receiving 89% of the dollars on 69% of the bets (per Action Network).

⬆️ Top Prop: Amari Cooper Over 4.5 Receptions (+100, DraftKings)

Sometimes, I think people forget how good Cooper is at playing football. He spent the early part of his career toiling away for bad Raiders teams, and now he’s stuck in an inefficient Browns passing attack. That said, he remains an elite talent at the receiver position.

He reminded everyone of that fact last week, racking up 11 catches, 265 yards, and two TDs against a helpless Texans secondary. Don’t expect that level of production vs. the Jets, but over 4.5 receptions is a very reasonable ask.

Cooper’s full-season marks aren’t all that impressive, but he’s been much more heavily featured since Flacco took over at QB. He’s racked up at least 14 targets in two of his past three contests, and he has a 29% target share over that time frame.

With that kind of volume, getting to five receptions shouldn’t be that difficult. He has the upside for double-digit targets, so he’s a potential ladder candidate as well.

 Same-Game Parlay (+901, FanDuel)

• Under 34.5

• Jets +7.5

• Cooper 5+ receptions

• Breece Hall 50+ rushing yards

Let’s keep things simple this week. I’m starting with the under on 34.5 points, and I’m pairing that with the Jets +7.5. Ultimately, if this game stays under the total, it’s hard to imagine a scenario where the Jets get blown out. It’s possible, but it’s less likely in a low-scoring game than a high-scoring one.

After that I’m pairing it with my two favorite props: At least five catches for Cooper and at least 50 rushing yards for Hall. Both of those numbers just seem too low for players this talented.