💀 QB Catastrophe

“The more, the merrier” is a great sentiment — but not when it comes to backup QBs…

In today’s Betting Life newsletter presented by Underdog:

Every week, I publish a best bets article in which I provide notes on the updates in my QB value chart, which directly compares the ATS value of every starter to his backup.

We have a number of injury situations at QB this week. Here are my thoughts on them.

⚡️ Justin Herbert Out, Easton Stick In

I have Herbert (finger, IR) +6.1 points ahead of Stick, who has been in the league since 2019 but will draw his first NFL start on Thursday. He played only 37 snaps in relief of Herbert last week, but he looked passable in his limited action with a 7.5 AY/A.

🤕 C.J. Stroud Out, Davis Mills In?

Stroud (concussion) suffered an injury last week and is uncertain for this week. I have the downgrade from Stroud to Mills as -2. My gut says the dropoff should be steeper, but Mills has 26 starts and a career mark of 6.1 AY/A. That’s not great, but it’s livable. He’s an experienced NFL QB.

And there’s always the possibility that the Texans could choose to go with No. 3 QB Case Keenum, who has 64 starts in the regular season (plus two in the postseason) and a 6.6 AY/A. I have Keenum as a +0.7 upgrade over Mills.

🤏 Geno Smith vs. Drew Lock

Last week, I had the dropoff from Smith (quad) to Lock at -1.4. Now, it’s -0.9. Lock had two costly INTs in Week 14, but he also had 269 yards and two TDs passing with a 71.0% completion rate and 7.1 AY/A against a tough 49ers defense.

If he starts again for the Seahawks this week, he could give them a fighting chance against the Eagles on MNF.

🤷‍♂️ Kenny Pickett Out, Mitchell Trubisky In

Am I the only person who thinks Trubisky didn’t look awful last week? It was his first start of the season, and it was on short rest against a tough Patriots defense. He wasn’t great as a passer (4.7 AY/A), but he was much better than Pickett as a runner (8-30-1 rushing).

I might be alone in this, but I have Trubisky as a +1.3 upgrade over Pickett (ankle), who’s out again this week.

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Jason Scavone from Unabated dives into NFL totals and discusses why unders have been so profitable in 2023.

We’re way over on the number of unders this year, which you may have first-hand knowledge of if you suffered through Raiders-Vikings this past Sunday. 

But 3-0 “Were they playing under throwback rules that forbade the forward pass?” specials aside, there has still been a glut of unders this season. If you bet the over in every NFL game this season, you’d have gone 90-117, connecting at an anemic 43.5%. In primetime and standalone games alone, it’s 15-30 to the over.

So what’s going on? A couple of theories.

🎲 Good Ol’ Variance

When you see stats like “The Broncos are 10-0 to the under on Thursday Night Football played after the winter solstice,” you’re generally dealing with noise. The small-sample-size nature of football makes these trends appear more significant than they really are. 

(The ultimate expression of this was the Lions’ Thanksgiving waxing gibbous performance, which is a very real and accurate gauge of Detroit’s performance because they’re classic Virgos.)

So are all these unders true signal? Probably not. If you zoom out a little, you can see that overs went 133-139 in 2021 (a 48.9% clip) and 122-150 in 2022 (44.9%). This year’s numbers are an outlier, but possibly just that. 

But what might be depressing all the scoring, other than the moon phase on major American holidays?

🩹 QB Injuries & Ineffectiveness

If the NFL has a theme in 2023, it’s “That’s a nice QB you got there. It would be a shame if something happened to him.”

Starting four minutes into the season with Aaron Rodgers and culminating this week with Justin Herbert, the league has been decimated by QB injuries and generally lousy play from some starters.

There have been 55 different starting QBs this season. There are only 32 teams. And of those teams, how many had an outstanding QB to begin with? 

Obviously, QB is the most important offensive position, which is evident if you use a tool like the Unabated NFL Season Simulator and see how using backup QBs throws off a team’s projections. When you turn Deshaun Watson into Joe Flacco, that’s bad enough. But we’re in a year where we’re turning Mac Jones into Bailey Zappe. 

If bad to worse was a season, it’d be 2023.

🔄 Offensive Coordinator Upheaval

Now it’s chicken-and-egg time. Are the QBs bad because they’re bad, or are they bad because they’re dealing with new schemes?

This season has featured 18 OCs in their first season with a team. Good offensive coordinators tend to get picked for HC positions. That’s not to say only the bad OCs are left, but the cream does tend to get skimmed from the top.

🤔 Why Doesn’t the Market Adjust?

So if unders are popping, why haven’t totals plummeted to Steelers-Patriots lows? (30 at some books!)

For starters, sportsbooks know most bettors like betting overs. The public likes to bet on things to happen instead of not happen. Because of that, books shade their lines to the over. Sharps take full advantage of that and tend to bet more unders than overs.

If books drop totals too low, though, the sharps will start hitting the overs. With public and sharp money all on one side, it creates potentially huge liabilities for the books. 

So, what can you do to take advantage of this?

You can’t blindly bet unders just because they’ve been hot this season. Blindly betting anything is a quick way to go broke. But if you believe a factor like the quality of QB play is driving low-scoring games and that the books are in a position where they can’t properly adjust, make finding those spots your priority instead of hunting for overs to hit.

🤑 Paydirt = payday: TNF TD bet for a game that might have zero TDs.

📺 Line moves, key numbers, and teasers. How to attack Week 15.

🗑️ NFC South: One team will win the division, but all football fans (and bettors) are losing.

🏆 MVP: Brock Purdy… Brock Purdy… Brock Purdy… Brock Purdy.

💰 Free bets that WIN? Sounds too good to be true? +18.84u over the last 30 days says otherwise.

🤯 Go for broke: You can’t spell “hedge” without “edge.”

🤔 Are the Niners and Ravens destined for the Super Bowl? The Massey-Peabody ratings weigh in.

📊 Somewhere, someone is booking action on this. Even nerds can be world champions.

🧀 Packers: The luckiest team in the NFL.

✅ Backup QBs = betting opportunities? 88-69-5 ATS since last year.

Our friends at The Hammer Betting Network have been adding their favorite Week 15 bets to our Free Bet Tracker. Here’s one of the latest courtesy of Clev TA…

From Clev TA: “After three straight home games and a string of bad defenses, this is a big step up both in quality of opponent and environment on the road in Buffalo. Allen crushes man defense, and Dallas runs a man-heavy scheme.”

Thursday’s game between the Chargers and Raiders may not jump off the page, but every game must be cherished with just four weeks left in the regular season. Matt LaMarca breaks down his top picks for this AFC West showdown.

👍 Best Bet: Under 34.0 (-110; BetMGM)

My goodness, how things have changed. When this number was first released in the offseason, it was set at 47.5 points. That means the current figure has decreased by nearly two full touchdowns!

Still, I think the under is the best option in this contest. The Chargers are coming off a 24-7 loss in their last contest, while the Raiders game saw just three total points. Overall, the under is now 4-1 in Raiders games with Antonio Pierce as head coach.

Since Pierce took over in Week 9, the Raiders defense ranks fourth in EPA/play. The Chargers offense is 26th in EPA/play over that time frame, so I’m not sure how that can survive without Justin Herbert. They have no run game to speak of, so Easton Stick will have his hands full trying to put points on the board.

Taking the under on a low total is always a scary proposition. Still, low-totaled games have provided value this season. Closing totals of 38 or lower have gone 16-8-1 to the under, and totals of 35.0 or lower are 3-2.

Of course, there’s also the primetime narrative to consider. Primetime unders haven’t been nearly as dominant of late as they were to start the year, but they’re still 30-15 for the season. Dating back to 2019, they’re 155-99-3, good for a +17.1% ROI.

With two offenses dealing with significant question marks, I’m not going to overthink this one.

⬇️ Top Prop: Austin Ekeler Under 3.5 receptions (+120; DraftKings)

The prop market is a bit thin at the moment, but under 3.5 receptions for Ekeler is worth jumping on. Ekeler is one of the best receiving backs in football, but how much usage he’ll command with Stick remains to be seen. Stick is much more athletic than Herbert, so instead of dumping the ball off to his running back, he may just use his legs.

Ekeler did catch three passes from Stick last week, but they all came on one drive when the team was already down by 17 points. The Broncos were playing essentially a prevent defense at that point, so they didn’t mind surrendering some small catches underneath to Ekeler.

Unless you think the Raiders will turn this game into a blowout, this number seems a bit too high. We currently have Ekeler projected for just 2.8 receptions, so getting the under at +120 feels like a steal.

🤝 Same-Game Parlay (+670; FanDuel)

• Under 34.0

• Raiders -2.5

• Davante Adams 80+ receiving yards

I’m ultimately going to keep this one short and sweet. With the offerings currently limited in the prop market, I’m going with just three legs in this week’s SGP: Under 34.0, Raiders -2.5, and Adams 80+ receiving yards.

Getting the Raiders down to -2.5 means we cover if they win by a field goal, and three is the most common final margin in the NFL. Adams’ receiving props also seem a bit low for the matchup, especially with the chance the team turns back to Garoppolo.

This is far from the most ambitious SGP we’ve ever placed, but I think it’s a solid value at +670.