🌦️ QB Apocalypse Now

“The worst is not so long as we can say, ‘This is the worst.’”

In today’s Betting Life Newsletter presented by BetMGM:

In the Week 7 Sunday Betting Life Newsletter — entitled “Backup QBs, Gross” — I bemoaned the state of the QB position in the NFL and noted that we had a lot of backups starting.

I should’ve just kept my stupid mouth shut and appreciated the fact that we had football.

For my insolence, the gods of gambling and gridiron gave us a Week 8 slate that featured a host of No. 2 QBs… and then a panoply of injuries at the position. 

• Kirk Cousins (Achilles): Exited fourth quarter with a season-ending injury

• Kenny Pickett (ribs): Exited with injury, ruled out for second half

• Tyrod Taylor (ribs): Started for Daniel Jones (neck), hospitalized

• Matthew Stafford (thumb): Injured hand in the second quarter, exited in the third quarter

• Desmond Ridder (head): Exited for concussion evaluation, cleared but benched

• Will Levis: Started for Ryan Tannehill (ankle)

• Zach Wilson: Started for Aaron Rodgers (Achilles)

• Gardner Minshew: Started for Anthony Richardson (shoulder)

• Joshua Dobbs: Started for Kyler Murray (knee)

• Tyson Bagent: Started for Justin Fields (thumb)

• P.J. Walker: Started for Deshaun Watson (shoulder)

To borrow from Rick Pitino: “Tom Brady’s not walking through that door, fans. Drew Brees is not walking through that door, and Philip Rivers is not walking through that door.”

Here are my thoughts on the five backup QBs we might see in Week 9 with no more than three NFL starts (Levis, Bagent, Hall, DeVito, Rypien), along with what I think their value is against the spread (ATS) relative to their starters.

🚀 Will Levis (Titans) vs. Ryan Tannehill: -2.5

Although I have Levis as -2.5 points relative to Tannehill, I want to be clear on a few items.

1. Levis looked like a legit NFL QB in his first start with 238 yards, 4 TDs, and no INTs on 19-of-29 passing.

2. He has unquestioned upside given his physical profile and college performance.

3. I will be relatively quick to adjust him up if he continues to play well, and there’s a non-zero chance that he’s already better than Tannehill. 

Of all the backup QBs who might start in Week 9, he’s the one who excites me the most.

🧸 Tyson Bagent (Bears) vs. Justin Fields: -3.8

T-Bag was one of my Week 8 fantasy favorites as a viable desperation QB2 under the premise that he was competent in Week 7 (21-of-29 passing, 70 QBR, just one sack, no turnovers) and facing a Chargers defense in Week 8 that was No. 1 in most fantasy points allowed to QBs (23.7 FPPG).

But, alas, no.

Against the Chargers, Bagent threw two INTs and rushed for -1 yard in a mediocre-at-best performance as the Bears suffered a 30-13 loss on Sunday Night Football.

Fields is uncertain to return this week, and without him, there are few teams the Bears can beat.

Kevin Cole is the proprietor of Unexpected Points (a sports analytics newsletter), and each week he reviews every game and provides his “adjusted scores” based on the underlying production data. Here are two excerpts from his advanced game reviews for Week 8.

The adjusted scores quantify team play quality, with emphasis on stable metrics (success rate) and downplaying higher variance events (turnovers, special teams, penalties, fumble luck, etc.).

📊 Adjusted Scores Table

• “Pass”: Pass rate over expectation (based on the context of each play and historical averages)

• “Success”: Success rate on offense, a key metric in adjusted score vs. actual score

• “H & A”: Home or away team

🐴 Broncos vs. Chiefs

• Final Score: 24-19

• Adjusted Score: 18-18

In what has to be the most unexpected result of the season, the consensus No. 1 team in the NFL goes down, quite meekly, to the previous 2-5 Broncos. My adjusted scores see this as basically a push, with higher variance turnover, special teams and penalty advantages putting the Broncos over the top.

At -0.27 EPA per play, this was the worst Chiefs offensive performance in the Patrick Mahomes era. Fumbles and their recoveries are some of the highest variance plays in the NFL, and the Chiefs lost all three of theirs in this game, totaling a loss of 13.8 expected points.

Mahomes also tossed another two interceptions, though one was on 4th & 27. Another fourth down failure on 4th & 2 went through Sky Moore’s hands on a would-be 26-yard touchdown.

Russell Wilson’s six sacks and lost fumble offset the good that he did passing and running, but it was enough with the Chiefs offense struggling.

⛏️ 49ers vs. Bengals

• Final Score: 17-31

• Adjusted Score: 25-29

The 49ers are in a mini tailspin with three straight losses, but this one was closer than the final score. Both teams were highly successful on offense, but turnovers killed the 49ers’ chances to turn that success into points.

The Bengals were successful offensively on both passing and running. Their previous season-best EPA per play was only +0.05, but it jumped to +0.25 on the road against a tougher defense. I’m not sure the Bengals offense of old is back, but this is the first real showing that was on their previous level.

Brock Purdy was intercepted on back-to-back throws, both on first down, one on the Bengals 8-yard-line (combined -11.9 EPA). Purdy also fumbled for a loss of 4.9 expected points.

Considering the huge negatives, Purdy’s overall efficiency was pretty good, with the help of some rushing juice.

Joe Burrow had, by far, his best game of the year. He didn’t push the ball down the field much (5.7-yard aDOT) but produced similar success to what we saw in the second half of 2022.

💵 Game 3...Monday Night Football...

And a full slate of NBA & NHL games?!?!

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Finding early betting value — and grabbing as much closing line value (CLV) as possible — is one of the easiest ways to become a better bettor.

LaMarca dives into a few bets to consider attacking early in the week.

🦶 Atlanta Falcons (-3.5) vs. Minnesota Vikings (-105, FanDuel)

• Opening Line: Falcons +1.0

• Current Line: Falcons -3.5

• Target Range: Falcons -4.0 or better

The Vikings managed to get the win in Week 8, but they may have lost the war. Kirk Cousins suffered what is believed to be a torn Achilles, which would sideline him for the rest of the season.

Backup quarterback Nick Mullens is also on Injured Reserve, and he’s not eligible to return to the lineup until Week 10 at the earliest. That leaves Jaren Hall as the only available option on the team’s depth chart.

Hall got just a touch of experience in relief of Cousins vs. the Packers, and what we saw was not impressive. His first drive ended with a fumble, while his second drive ended with a punt. Hall wasn’t effective in the preseason either, so asking him to start in his rookie season is likely not going to end well.

Cousins has been carrying a massive load for the Vikings’ offense. They’ve had virtually no running game to speak of, and Alexander Mattison and Cam Akers combined for just 50 yards on 25 carries vs. the Packers.

Without Cousins slinging the ball all over the yard, how in the world is this team going to survive?

The Falcons are up to 3.5-point favorites across the industry, but I’d expect this number to close higher. They're obviously not loaded at quarterback either, but Taylor Heinicke gave the team a spark in the second half against the Titans.

I’m happy to play the Falcons at -4 or better.

🐬 Miami Dolphins vs. Kansas City Chiefs Under 51.5 points (-110, FanDuel)

• Opening Total: 51.5

• Current Total: 51.5

• Target Range: 50.0 or higher

The best game of the week will take place in Frankfurt, Germany, at 9:30 a.m. ET. Sorry West Coasters, but you’re going to need to set an alarm if you want to watch Patrick Mahomes square off with the high-flying Dolphins’ offense.

The total on this game opened at 51.5, but it’s already down to 50.5 at most locations. Personally, I’m looking to play the under at anything better than 50.0.

It’s no secret that scoring has been down this season. The under has absolutely smashed through the first eight weeks, and totals of 50+ are going the way of the dinosaur. Only 10 games have had a closing total of 49 or greater this season, and the under is a sparkling 8-2 in those contests.

With that in mind, it’s not surprising that this total is on the way down.

The Dolphins’ offense has looked borderline unstoppable at times this season, but most of their damage has come against weaker competition. When they’ve squared off with a competent unit, the results have been much more modest.

The Chiefs are a far more defensively oriented team than in previous years, and their offense is less explosive than in years past. They lack a clear No. 2 option behind Travis Kelce, and when combined with their improved defense, they’re 6-2 to the under this season.

Add in an earlier-than-usual start time, and points could be hard to come by.

This is my favorite early play of the week, and it’s another one where I think there could be plenty of CLV by locking it in early.

🏆 Updated NFL MVP odds: There’s a new frontrunner in the market.

🐦 Cardinals cover: The right side is the winning side… but tough for Ravens bettors.

🌽 Of course Rovell would be excited about this. Iowa. Northwestern. Old. School. Football.

🔭 Some long-term perspective: The Chiefs… still good.

👑 Rashid Shaheed: Bona fide single-game parlay superstar.

🦓 I can’t believe he said that. Bro, you should expect to get fined.

🙁 “Abandon all hope, ye who enter here.” New York City, 2023.

☠️ Death. Taxes. Christian McCaffrey and Tyreek Hill finding the endzone. These are life’s only certainties.

🤯 I’m not one to criticize winning tickets… but who in their right mind makes this wager?!?

💰 Looking for more Monday Night Football bets? We’ve got you covered.

The Monday Nighter for Week 8 brings us an intriguing showdown to finish the week, and Geoff Ulrich is here to guide you through your bet slip for the game…

The Lions got brought back to earth last week by the Ravens in a humiliating 38-6 loss. Detroit had been handling its business to date (5-2 ATS on the season), but a full-strength Ravens squad proved too much in Baltimore. The Lions still maintain a +23 point differential and are top 10 in offensive and defensive DVOA – so they are hardly paper tigers. 

The Raiders came up flat last week as well and really didn’t have the luxury of putting in a complete stinker of a performance. They’re now 3-4 with an astounding -49 point differential. The Raiders' wins have come over the Broncos, Patriots, and Packers, and in their one matchup against a true upper-tier/elite team (Buffalo), they lost by 28.

🦁 Best Bet: Lions vs. Raiders Under 46.5 (-110, BetMGM)

• Bet To: Under 46.5 (-115)

I think it’s fine to give the Lions a pass for last week. They were down a couple of key players and didn’t have any chance to adjust in-game, thanks to how efficient the Ravens were on offense. You should see a more methodical approach from them this week and a more efficient game, overall. 

At the same time, I’m not sure we’ll necessarily see a back-and-forth shootout, given how slow the Raiders are on offense. They’re 27th in plays per game and 25th in yards per play. If they get CB Nate Hobbs back, they also may be able to slow down the Lions just a touch and force a couple of extra punts.

Ultimately, unders have been crushing of late, and I see no reason to go off that. Primetime unders are 17-7 going into this week and are 156-102-3 since the start of 2019 (per the Action Network).

⬆️ Player Props: Jameson Williams Longest Reception Over 14.5 yards (-114) & Anytime TD (+340, FanDuel)

• Bet To: Over 15.5 (-110) 

• Bet To: Anytime Touchdown (+300)

It’s hard to make a case for Williams based on production or film, but we do have usage to guide us. He’s seen 12 targets over the last three games, and he turned three targets into a 2-52-1 line two weeks ago vs. the Buccaneers. The Lions have supported their former first-round pick every step of the way and aren’t likely to stop throwing to him anytime soon. 

His 14.5-yard longest reception prop is extremely low, considering he’s posted air yard shares of 25% and 33% the last two weeks. Additionally, the Raiders boundary corners aren’t great – and have a multitude of corners on the injury report this week, including starter Marcus Peters. We have Williams projected for 29.4 yards, and if he does hit it's very likely to come on a single play or two. 

Additionally, I don’t dislike targeting Williams in the more variable TD market, either. He’s sitting at +340, which are pretty solid odds for the Lions' primary downfield pass-catcher in a game where they have a 27.5 implied team total.