🎯 Predicting the Postseason

The Super Bowl winner is …

In today’s Betting Life newsletter presented by the Betting Life YouTube Channel:

Our friends at Unabated have an NFL Season Simulator that allows users to upload data, play out 10,000 seasons, and compare the results to the betting market.

Based on an Unabated simulation using my power ratings (adjusted for some Week 19 injury assumptions), home-field advantage values, and QB ATS values, here are my projections for each team’s chances to win its conference and ultimately the Super Bowl, along with a few notes on bets that show value.

🚀 NFC Postseason Odds

1. 49ers: 47.2% NFC | 26.3% SB

2. Cowboys: 22.2% NFC | 11.0% SB

3. Lions: 10.2% NFC | 4.4% SB

4. Buccaneers: 4.2% NFC | 1.6% SB

5. Eagles: 7.8% NFC | 3.6% SB

6. Rams: 5.2% NFC | 1.4% SB

7. Packers: 3.1% NFC | 1.0% SB

Notes

• Lions theoretically offer value to win NFC (+950, FanDuel) — but I think they could struggle this week against the Rams. (More on that later).

• Rams to win NFC (+2200, Caesars) is a bet I like — and I’ve liked it since the offseason, when I logged it in our FREE Fantasy Life Bet Tracker at +4500.

• Packers stand out in NFC market (+4500, Caesars) … but it’s hard to imagine them winning three straight road games (including two against Cowboys and 49ers) to reach Super Bowl.

• Bucs show value to win Super Bowl (+9500, FanDuel). I don’t think I can make that bet — and yet I can imagine them upsetting the Eagles.

🏆 AFC Postseason Odds

1. Ravens: 50.4% AFC | 28.7% SB

2. Bills: 19.2% AFC | 9.3% SB

3. Chiefs: 12.5% AFC | 6.0% SB

4. Texans: 3.7% AFC | 1.3% SB

5. Browns: 5.2% AFC | 1.8% SB

6. Dolphins: 6.4% AFC | 3.0% SB

7. Steelers: 2.6% AFC | 0.7% SB

Notes

• Ravens still are attractive options to win AFC (+130, Caesars) and Super Bowl (+325, BetMGM). They’re No. 1 in Massey-Peabody Power Ratings (+11.05).

• Steelers are intriguing to win AFC (+6000, FanDuel). If you squint, you might almost see them upsetting the Bills in bad weather and the Ravens in a third divisional matchup to reach the AFC Championship. It’s not likely, but it’s not unthinkable. That said — it still feels unbeatable.

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Jason Scavone from Unabated looks at the difference between betting the NFL regular season and postseason …

Through 18 weeks, from early September to early January, you had your routine. Betting the NFL involved checking early lines on Mondays and Tuesdays. Then reacting to injury information on Thursdays and Fridays. Hunting player props on Fridays and Saturdays. Then finishing up with teasers on Sunday mornings. You dabbled with some halftime and in-game bets. 

Now we’re down to only 13 postseason games spread over five weekends (and the Pro Bowl taking up space). Is NFL playoff betting just a last hurrah for the season, or does it require a different approach?

🤔 Betting Sides & Totals

As we head into Super Wild Card Weekend (their title, not mine) we have six games spread over 60 hours with no picture-in-picture required. Much has been made this week of the influence of injuries on the spreads in certain games. For the most part, the spread in a playoff game is very similar to the spread in a regular season game. Key numbers of 3, 6 and 7 still rule. It is fairly representative of the relative strength of the two teams. 

However, totals tend to be lower. Colder January weather does have an effect in some cities. Some of this is also due to the old adage of “defense wins championships.” 

This year’s Super Wild Card Weekend features three matchups of teams that faced each other in the regular season, and of the three one total is higher: Chiefs-Dolphins. Temperatures in Kansas City are hitting a high of 10 on Saturday.

(Texans-Browns at 44.5 surpasses the consensus 40 of their Christmas Eve matchup. Buccaneers-Texans at 44 matches their MNF total in late September.)

This doesn’t necessarily create a viable angle. It’s just the nature of playoff football. Don’t be surprised if there is not as much scoring this weekend as you would have expected.

🤑 Teasers

Traditionally, the Wild Card round represents the last viable weekend to shop for Wong Teasers (ones that pass through the key numbers). There’s just not a large enough selection of games past this weekend.

That’s the bad news. The good news is that Wong Teasers are strong in the Wild Card round. This is due to a combination of market lines having grown more efficient as the season goes on as well as less variance in results. While blowouts do occur in the NFL playoffs, they are a bit less frequent. Those added points from a Wong Teaser come in handy in the playoffs.

The (additional) bad news is that only two games really fall within range this week. Cowboys -7.5 and Texans +2.5 are viable legs if you can get a price on a two-team teaser better than -120. 

Adding in Buccaneers +2.5 as a third leg at +160 is still a bet with a positive expectation, but the edge is thin. 

Keep an eye on lines closer to game time. If lines shift before kickoff, it’s possible you could find one last teaser to get in this season, using the Unabated Teaser Calculator.

👋 Bill Belichick and the Patriots part ways. The greatest coach ever?

👑 Nick Saban retires. I think the three-year letterman says it best.

📺 Line moves, key numbers, and contest plays. How to attack Super Wild Card Weekend.

💰 Free bets that WIN? We’re up +38.5 units in NFL.

🦖 Pete Carroll to “evolve” from HC to vague “advisor”: This is one of the cringiest “we fired him but don’t want to say it” statements ever.

💬 Chat directly with our bettors, get daily picks in real-time, and more. Just one click away.

🐶 The league leader since Week 13. Throwing to his dad and brother for two-thirds of the season.

✍️ Browns and Lions are making NFL history. Too bad they’re both losing this weekend as favorites???

🧐 Team-by-team game-by-game grades for the regular season: Bills look elite.

💀 Just one degenerate’s opinion. But it’s funny.

Every week, Matthew Freedman writes an article with some of his favorite bets for spread, totals, and moneylines. Here are a couple of them, which you can find (along with lots of other bets) in our 100% FREE bet tracker.

🐏 Rams +3 at Lions (-102, DraftKings)

• Projections: +2.5 | 51.7 O/U | +134.6 ML

• Logged Bet: Rams +3.5, and I still like them at +3

This isn’t the best of travel spots for the Rams, who go East three time zones for their third consecutive game away, but that’s mitigated by the fact that they rested many of their main starters last week. And they still won and improved to the No. 6 seed. (The gods of gambling rewarded them for their strategic soundness.)

The Lions are at home for their second straight game -- but they lost multiple pass catchers last week while playing for a win that ended up not improving their seeding at all. (The powers of pigskin punished them for their short-sightedness.)

I’ve been high on the Rams all year, and that’s not stopping now.

I like Lions HC Dan Campbell, who is a legendary 35-16 ATS (31.0% ROI) for his career and 18-7 ATS (38.1% ROI) at home.

But Rams HC Sean McVay is the superior coach, and given that he’s an underdog he might be able to hold his decision-making conservatism in check for this game.

As a road underdog, McVay is 16-10-2 ATS (18.2% ROI). As a road dog of at least +3, he’s 12-5-2 ATS (32.7% ROI).

Given their time together (2017-20), McVay probably knows Lions QB Jared Goff better than any other coach alive, and Rams QB Matthew Stafford is hardly a visitor at Ford Field, where he played 83 games with the 2009-20 Lions.

For a brief second, this number was Rams +5 at a sportsbook when it opened, and I asked myself, “Wait, what am I missing?” By the time I had finished looking around to see if there was any big injury news for the Rams I wasn’t aware of, the line had moved to +4.

By the time I got around to betting it, the line was +3.5. Whatever. I think it should be +2.5.

☠️ Buccaneers +3 vs. Eagles (-110, BetMGM)

• Projections: +0.6 | 44.3 O/U | +115.5 ML

• Potential Bet: Bucs +3.5, if not then Bucs +3, Bucs ML, or Bucs above +7 in teaser

I haven’t made a bet yet on the Buccaneers, but I strongly lean in their direction. I’m waiting to see the injury reports and to allow the market to develop.

If the Eagles have positive injury news, this line might move to +3.5, where I’d likely bet it. If the market stays where it is, I’ll probably bet Buccaneers +3 or ML. If the market moves toward the Buccaneers, I’ll almost certainly tease them up above the key number of +7.

The Buccaneers are an imperfect team. But they’re at home for their third game in four weeks, and they’re healthy.

Compare that to the Eagles, who are on the road, 0-6 ATS (-100% ROI) since Week 13, and injured.

I expect QB Jalen Hurts (finger) to play, but he has been far from perfect (15 INTs in 17 games), and his home/road splits are notable, especially this year.

• Home: 245.5 yards passing per game | 8.1 AY/A

• Road: 210.4 yards passing per game | 5.6 AY/A

And the Eagles aren’t guaranteed to have WRs A.J. Brown (knee) and DeVonta Smith (ankle). If they play, they will likely be nowhere near 100%.

In the secondary, the Eagles might be without No. 1 CB Darius Slay (knee), FS Reed Blankenship (groin), and slot CB/S Sydney Brown (knee).

On top of all that, the Eagles defense has allowed 26.8 points per game since promoting senior assistant Matt Patricia to defensive playcaller in Week 15, and that’s despite facing Drew Lock, Tommy DeVito, Tyrod Taylor, and a Cardinals team incentivized to lose.

It would be ugly, but the Buccaneers have a shot to upset the Eagles.