Positive Vibes Only

Steel City's No. 2

August 23, 2024

Aug. 23, 2024

PRESENTED BY

I tried to keep the vibes edition brief, but it’s really important. Readers constantly ask if I watch and/or care about the games themselves. Listen, whether you’re betting on sports at a high level, grinding out points on implied edges, or recreationally on the weekend to boost viewing experiences, handling emotions properly is necessary and a 360-degree win.

John Laghezza

At this point in my career, I’ve modeled tens of thousands of MLB games for the public, experiencing every single segment of the outcome bell curve. I’m telling you, live and die with every result and your emotional capital will hit zero before your betting account.

Now that doesn’t mean I don’t watch the games—and sure as heck doesn’t mean I won’t cheer when I do. To me, it’s about pragmatism. I will enjoy the ride, which sometimes means hooting and hollering like a madman to get back my cost of admission. Plus, pressure valves need to be released… or they explode. With decades of trading/betting under my belt, I can promise you there’s no lack of pride in sustainability—you can’t stay stoic forever.

My best advice? Root your heart out and revel in the moment—but only while the game continues. Remember, it’s out of our hands at this point. We don’t tackle the running backs, throw the balls, or swing the bats. Control what you can, such as risk management, work ethic, and how you handle yourself through downturns.

The second a bet loses, you MUST disconnect emotionally. We’ve all been there, do NOT beat yourself up. If you struggle with that last part, it’s evidence of your risk being too high. Again, something I know all too well from experience. I made the mistake, maybe you don’t have to. One of the best lessons I ever learned was to scale bets down until you no longer care to free yourself from the outcome.

 It works … real Jedi stuff, I know. Stay level, stay humble. Positive vibes only.

What else is in today’s newsletter?

  • Look Into My Crystal Ball

  • The New York Prop Exchange

NFL PROPS

Look Into My Crystal Ball 🔮—Filling Target Voids

Some transparency right up front; I’m only laying half-risk on today’s NFL future. And it’s not because the odds are long or I don’t think it will hit—I’m just currently at my limit of betting on Arthur Smith-led passing attacks and I want to stay married. HA!

The thing is, books and players have all become so sharp there are very few obvious plays at this point of the summer. However, a few spots I’ve found that analysis meets projections plus edge are target voids. So back to the Steel City, we go…

Diontae Johnson left for Carolina and took an alpha wideout’s workload with him. For reference, Johnson ran a route on 89% of dropbacks when active, soaking up 25% of the team’s annual target share. And who did the Steelers bring in to replace one of the league’s top opportunity earners? That would be career cardio route runner Van Jefferson—who made all of 12 catches in 11 games last year. Pat Freiermuth will fill that void.

No matter how I slice it, this 475.5-yard line is off to me. For starters, Freiermuth only needs 28 receiving yards per game (RecYd/Gm) across a healthy season to clear the bar. Meanwhile, he beat that by 14% last year 32 RecYd/Gm with horrible QB play.

Courtesy of Trumedia, I charted Freiermuth’s weekly reception load. It starts after his Week 11 return from injury next to full-time WRs George Pickens and Diontae Johnson. You can see just how crucial a role Freirmuth played in the passing game. NOTE: The chart is missing the playoff game vs. Buffalo in which he LED THE TEAM IN CATCHES AND RECEIVING YARDS. 

As a proven focus in the offense with the coaches’ full trust, I’m in line with both Dwain McFarland and Matthew Freedman’s projections—we clear this one by at least 50 yards.

THE BET: Pat Freiermuth Over 475.5 Receiving Yards (-110)

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MLB BETTING

The New York Prop Exchange ⚾️🏛️—Cunning Witt

Philly’s Taijuan Walker’s riding the struggle bus this year and there’s still time to hop on. Now in the fourth straight year of shedding a mile per hour on the four-seamer, it’s sitting at 91 mph and looking like a beach ball to opposing hitters. Through 61.2 IP, the 5.69 ERA, 1.61 WHIP combo tells you all you need to know. Not enough strikeouts plus too many walks forces Walker into the zone—where he’s allowed ungodly power metrics against: 43% Fly Ball, 49% Hard Hit, 14% Barrel, 2.2 HR/9. Major oof.

The Fighting Phils host the Royals, led by the best hitter on the planet not named Aaron Judge. Beast feels like an understatement in describing Bobby Witt Jr., who simply cannot be stopped. His second-half stats border on the cusp of needing to change the difficulty settings—135 PA, .445 BA, 1.319 OPS, 52% HH, 13% Barrel, 9 HR. Whoa!

Took the liberty of charting Bobby Witt’s Hits + Runs + RBI per game since the All-Star break (below) and I’m actually loving that he’s coming off a miss. We’re going to BTFD—that’s buy the dip for the normies (you can figure out what the F stands for).

THE BET: Bobby Witt Over 2.5 Hits + Runs + RBI (-110)

AROUND THE WATERCOOLER

The latest analysis and insights from our merry band of sports betting nerds:

NFC North Betting Preview by Matt LaMarca features Detroit Lions as roaring favorites

It’s Week 0 of the College Football season and Thor Nystrom breaks down a pair of big games.

Kyler Murray is Matthew Berry’s 2024 Ride or Die, will the Cardinals cover +5.5 Week 1 vs. Bills?

Saturday is UFC Fight Night featuring Cannonier vs. Borralho, who you got?

Can’t get enough of College Football? Time for SEC Betting Preview

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