🏀 Play-In Tournament — Take Two

Joel Embiid vs. Jimmy Butler feels like the playoffs. DeMar DeRozan vs. Dejounte Murray? Not as much.

In today’s Betting Life newsletter, presented by RotoPass:

The first day of the NBA Play-In Tournament saw the Lakers punch their ticket to the postseason. Their reward? A matchup vs. the defending champion Nuggets. Good luck with that!

While the Lakers put their championship pedigree on display vs. New Orleans, the Warriors could not do the same vs. the Kings. Despite entering Tuesday’s matchup in significantly better recent form, the Warriors were embarrassed by 24 points. Golden State has had a fantastic run, but it seems as though the dynasty is officially over.

The Eastern Conference will take the court on Wednesday, with the 76ers hosting the Heat and the Bulls hosting the Hawks. The winner of 76ers-Heat will earn the No. 7 seed in the conference, setting up a first-round series vs. the Knicks. The loser of that matchup will face the winner of Heat-Bulls on Friday, with the winner advancing to take on the Celtics in the first round of the postseason.

I expressed why I’m all over the 76ers in Monday’s newsletter, so let’s focus on the other contest today.

🐂 Chicago Bulls (-2.5) vs. Atlanta Hawks (-114; FanDuel)

If you asked me about the two most disappointing Eastern Conference teams in recent years, I’d probably settle on the Bulls and Hawks. Both teams have plenty of talent, yet they’ve struggled to make any real waves. 

Still, the Bulls at least have an excuse. Lonzo Ball hasn’t played in played in more than two years, while Zach LaVine went down with a season-ending injury this season. The Hawks have had pretty good health; they just haven’t been very good.

That’s reflected in their ATS numbers. They were the worst team in the league at covering the spread this season, and it wasn’t particularly close. They were just 29-53 – a 35.4% clip – and no other team was below 41.5%. They were equally disappointing at home and on the road, covering just 35.0% of the time away from Atlanta.

I see no reason why things would change on Wednesday. The Hawks limped to the finish line, ending the regular season on a six-game losing streak. The Bulls won two of their last three, with the exception being a hard-fought overtime loss to the Knicks on Sunday.

Atlanta also lost a few key contributors down the stretch. Jalen Johnson has been one of their best players this season, but he’s sidelined with a right ankle sprain. Saddiq Bey and Onyeka Okongwu are also out of the lineup. Chicago will be as healthy as they’ve been all season, so I expect them to take care of business.

⚾️ A full day of action on the diamond. Best bets for today’s MLB slate.

💪🏾 The Lakers took down the Pelicans on Tuesday. And Lebron James improved his record in elimination games (again).

🐶 L.A. also opened as huge underdogs against Denver. Can Anthony Davis stay on the court long enough to slow down Jokic?

🏆 NBA award controversy? The fact that someone who plays for Tom Thibodeau didn’t see enough minutes to qualify is SHOCKING.

💸 New details in the Jontay Porter investigation. The good news? He reportedly did not wager on basketball.

🍺 The Green Jacket detoured through a Texas dive bar on Sunday night. How hungover does Scottie Scheffler have to be to lose?  

🔻 Jackie Robinson Day did not work out for the Dodgers. They were the second-biggest MLB favorites to go down since 2020.

🏒 Back Matthews to hit 70 goals tonight? Our NHL tracker has bets up for this Wednesday. 

The PGA heads to coastal South Carolina this week for the RBC Heritage, which takes place on Hilton Head Island. It’s a smaller but elite field, and several big names will look for breakthrough wins at this signature event. Geoff Ulrich fills you in on which players you should be targeting below.

🏆 Patrick Cantlay: Outright (+1600; BetMGM)

In typical Cantlay fashion, the American has often saved some of his best work for the week AFTER major championships. He’s posted two of his seven career wins at the Memorial – in starts that were made directly after the PGA Championship – and always seems to find a way to compete at this week’s post-Masters test, an event where he’s finished T3 or better four times in six starts since 2017. 

While his price has slipped from the +2000 range since opening, I still prefer him to the other options at the top of the board. Scottie Scheffler has a lot working against him this week (Short odds, Masters hangover, wife potentially going into labor), and the other players shorter in odds than Cantlay (Xander Schauffele, Ludvig Aberg, Rory McIlroy) don’t have the experience at Harbour Town he does. We’ve also seen Cantlay go off at this event with shorter odds before, as he closed at +1200 last season despite coming off a very similar Masters finish (T14 in 2023, T22 in 2024).

Cantlay’s performance last week should be a confidence booster, and with his betting number still playable, his course experience gives him the edge for me in this range.

🏆 Tommy Fleetwood: Outright (+2200; Bet365)

Staying with the theme of targeting players overdue for a win, I don't have any qualms with targeting Englishman Tommy Fleetwood at a shorter price this week, either. Fleetwood finished T3 at Augusta (despite having to use a local caddie) but was never really in the hunt for the title. That may mean he’s somewhat fresher than some of the other top players who fell off on Sunday after starting within a couple of shots of the lead. 

Fleetwood’s T3 was his best-ever finish at the Masters, and his ability to handle that longer course can only breed confidence around this week’s shorter and more technical test. The 33-year-old has posted strong finishes at this event in each of the past two seasons (T10 and T15) and has rolled it well on Harbour Town’s greens, gaining an average of 5.0 strokes putting at this event the last two seasons. It’s a good omen, considering he’s also never entered this event with as good of form as he’s shown over his past two starts.

While his price is shorter this week than it was at Augusta, his win equity with the shorter venue and smaller field in play (and a potentially fatigued Scheffler) is also much higher. With the circumstances somewhat tilted back in his favor, this looks like a great time to back the Englishman for a very overdue first PGA win.

📈 Tom Kim: Top 20 (+140; DraftKings)

I also like backing Tom Kim this week, who finished the Masters with a brilliant round of 66 on Sunday. Kim has struggled in 2024 but remains an elite talent who has shown he can elevate his game in a flash when everything comes together. He posted a second career win this fall in Vegas after taking multiple weeks off, and his T8 at the US Open last season came after two missed cuts. 

Kim’s outright price at +5000 is still big enough to play, but with bettors driving it down significantly since Monday, I also like looking to the placement markets to see if there is better value lurking. Kim is still +140 for a top 20 on DraftKings, a decent number considering he’s as low as +115 at other sportsbooks. With a more suitable layout in play at Harbour Town, taking advantage of this market discrepancy makes sense and makes Kim a sensible top-20 target in this reduced 69-man field.