🌴 The PGA TOUR heads to Florida

It turns out that heading to Florida isn’t reserved purely for college kids on Spring Break and retirees …

In today’s Betting Life Newsletter presented by BetMGM:

The sports calendar is slowly starting to ramp up. March Madness is just around the corner, spring training is here, and big golf events like the Masters will be here before we know it. Still, for the time being, the NBA is center stage.

We have another six games to choose from on Wednesday, giving us ample opportunities to look for betting value. Hopefully, we continue the success we had on Tuesday, with the Fantasy Life crew going 7-2 on nine plays posted in our NBA Bet Tracker (including 5-1 for myself).

Let’s dive into five of my favorite plays for Wednesday’s slate.

🦤 Pelicans (+6) at Pacers (-110, DraftKings)

The Pelicans will be on the second leg of a back-to-back on Wednesday, which comes with a bit of uncertainty regarding their lineup. C.J. McCollum missed Tuesday’s win over the Knicks, while Zion Williamson is always a threat to sit out one leg of a back-to-back. He’s done that eight previous times this season, although he did suit up in both games of the team’s most recent back-to-back set.

Zion is imperative to the Pelicans’ success. He’s averaged 22.4 points, 5.6 rebounds, and 5.1 assists per game this season, shooting better than 57% from the field. He’s propelled the Pelicans to the seventh-best Net Rating in basketball during February, outscoring opponents by an average of +7.8 points per 100 possessions. They’ve also rattled off nine wins in their past 12 games, so they’re playing as well as anyone at the moment.

The same cannot be said for the Pacers. They haven’t been bad recently, but they haven’t been particularly good, either. They’ve gone just 6-5 in February, ranking 15th in the league in Net Rating over that time frame.

Ultimately, the injury report will be important to monitor here. As long as Williamson is in the lineup, I can’t pass up grabbing six points with the Pelicans. It’s a tough travel spot – the Pacers were off on Tuesday and haven’t left Indiana since returning from the All-Star break – but they’re simply the better team.

🐻 Grizzlies-Timberwolves Under 210 (-110, FanDuel)

This total feels like a throwback to the “grit and grind” days of the Memphis Grizzlies, who routinely played at a snail’s pace and were one of the best defensive teams in basketball. The Grizzlies don’t have that same identity anymore; they’re just not very good at putting the ball in the basket. They’re merely 28th in offensive efficiency in February, averaging a paltry 104.9 points per 100 possessions.

It’s not entirely their fault, with nearly every key contributor on the squad dealing with long-term injuries. They already have six players ruled out for this contest, and John Konchar is listed as doubtful.

Things don’t figure to get any easier vs. the Timberwolves, who have been the best defensive team in basketball this season. They’ve been even better recently, allowing just 104.0 points per 100 possessions over their past 10 games.

Both of these squads have also played at a below-average pace in February, so points should be hard to come by. Even if the Timberwolves can do some damage, I don’t think Memphis will hold up their end of the bargain.

🛑 The Sports Calendar Never Slows Down!

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🏀 Max Strus channels his inner Steph Curry. Five 3-pointers in the final 3:42, including a ridiculous game-winner.

🦌 Don’t look now, but here come the Bucks. Their defense was downright ferocious vs. the Hornets on Tuesday.

⛳ Be Cognizant. Some winning trends for this week’s PGA event. 

🔶 With March Madness right around the corner, it’s time to brush up on our… geometry? Get to know the Trapezoid of Excellence.

😎 Guess who’s back. AK-47 returns to the pro golf ranks this week, and his swing looks pure as ever.

✍️ Marco Parlay has our attention. He scores big with the Pistons for the second time in three weeks.

👋 1.1 million reasons why? The “best bettor in the world” no longer has an X account.

🐍 The NFL Combine gets underway on Thursday. Let’s celebrate by revisiting one of the funniest 40-yard dashes of all time.

🐈‍⬛ Kentucky buzzer-beater for the upset? Cash those +165 ML tickets!

The PGA TOUR begins its Florida swing this week with the first major of the year inching ever closer. Resident Golf degenerate Geoff Ulrich has you covered with all the bets you need below.

Below are my favorite betting targets for the week. While they are all outright (to win) plays for me, I like playing these names in the placing department as well, and I’ve included placing options for each name if you are constructing a betting card and want exposure to both options.

Additionally, if you can make each-way bets (a to-win and a to-place bet in one), I’ve included that option for some players where the odds are relevant.

🏌️‍♂️ Adam Svensson +5500 Outright (BetMGM)

• +900 to finish Top Five

Svensson is a player who won multiple times on the Korn Ferry Tour and earned his first PGA Tour victory in late 2022 (RSM Classic). He’s got the perfect style (great on mid-approaches, solid short game) for these more technical tracks and posted a T9 at PGA National back in 2021, an event he was tracking with the leaders for much of the way. 

His game showed some bite the last time out at Riviera, where he gained over 2.0 strokes on approach (APP) and around the green (ATG). We’ve seen Svennson mix it up with the big boys on tracks like this before (he led the Florida-based PLAYERS last year after 36 holes), and in this weaker field, he’ll likely feel much more confident if he gets near the front on Sunday again. At 50-1 or better, he’s not someone I’d shy away from backing this week. 

🏌️‍♂️ Maverick McNealy +8000 Outright (FanDuel)

• +700 to finish Top 10

• +8000 each-way 1/5 Top Eight (Bet365)

McNealy had a solid week at the Mexico Open, landing a Top 20 finish off the back of a final round 66 where he gained over two strokes on approach. The former Stanford star has been working his way back from an injury layoff over the last six months but has already posted a T6 on the season (TPC Scottsdale).

Notably, McNealy has now gained over 5.0 strokes ATG and Putting (combined) in each of his last two starts. He also rates out as the top Bermuda putter in this field over the last 50 rounds (+42.94 strokes via Fantasy National).

The American has a solid history at these shorter par 71/70 tracks and finished T11 at this venue on debut back in 2020. At these odds, it’s hard to pass up the chance to back him this week, either as an outright or at lesser odds to crack the Top 10.

️⛳️ Harry Hall +35000 Outright (Bet365)

• +5500 to finish Top Five

• +2000 to finish Top 10

• +850 to finish Top 20

• +275 to finish Top 40

• +25000 each-way 1/5 Top Eight

If you’re looking for a player with longer odds to degen out on this week, I fully admit that I am high on the chances for the enigmatic Harry Hall. 

While the Englishman has started the season slowly, the last few weeks have been promising. He made the cut in Phoenix and then improved to a T34 finish in Mexico, gaining 4.4 strokes on APP and 3.3 strokes ATG. Hall’s putter held him back last week, but that won’t be the case in most starts. He’s 10th in strokes gained putting on Bermuda greens over the last 50 rounds and is legitimately one of the game's best spike putters when he’s on (he gained over 7.0 strokes putting three separate times in 2023). 

Hall finished just T75 at this venue last year but notably was 2-under-par going into the weekend. At the very least, he’s someone to think about adding for smaller units in the top 10 and 20 markets, as his short game has been in form, and his putter can carry him for big stretches on the weekend if he can get through the cutline.