What else is in today’s newsletter?

• Look Into My Crystal Ball: Eagles Soaring

• The Champ Is Here: The Bucs Don’t Stop Here

• Where are the Sharps Betting on TNF? Chargers or Broncos?
  

The latest analysis and insights from our merry band of sports betting nerds:

💸 Herbert-Nix. Harbaugh-Payton. It’s Thursday Night Football and Geoff has all the best bets for this AFC West matchup.

🙌 Who’s playing for milestones and to hit contract incentives down the stretch?

👀 You’re going to jump in with Geoff and lock down this Bo Nix prop on TNF.

🤔 Trust Michael Penix in the semis of fantasy playoffs? Coach Gene and I drop the Week 16 start/sit recommendations, topped with Toffee Almond Sandies.

🎁 Need a last-minute holiday gift? We have a gift guide. The 2025 future is so bright, you’ll have to wear Knockaround shades.

🔮 Have the betting lines moved for TNF? They sure have.

Look Into My Crystal Ball🏈🔮—Take You Back (Doo Do Doo Doo)

THE BET: Philadelphia Eagles To Win NFC #1 Seed (+170) DraftKings

Nothing says the holidays like a little acapella over a flaming trash can. My favorite plus-money future on the board takes us back to South Philly—and is actually one we began a position on about a month ago. To my surprised delight, despite modeling its likelihood to increase, the price remained stagnant. So I’m hitting it again. In the words of the great luminary and American songwriter/philosopher Britney Spears, do it to me one more time. 

Philadelphia has burned like liquid hot magma throughout its 10-game win streak, going back to mid-October. To me, no one’s even close during that span in balanced domination. Philly is easily a top-tier offense, ranking fifth or better in scoring (28.3) and EPA/play (+0.10) since the Week 5 bye. And we know the defense gets after it.

PHI’s success should come as no shock with Saquon Barkley leading the NFL in rushing by a country mile behind the league’s premier offensive line. And, oh yeah, quarterback Jalen Hurts is pretty good, too. He’s scored more rushing TDs in 2024 than anyone—and also happens to be posting the best underpinning passing metrics of his career in terms of EPA/attempt (+0.26), completion rate (69.2%), passer rating (104.5), and yards per attempt (8.1). That boy is on fire.

If stopping this uniquely versatile offense doesn’t present enough of a problem, Vic Fangio’s defense certainly will. The Eagles consistently collapse interior lines, get to the quarterback, finish tackles, and present a strong secondary. No easy outs here, folks. 

Right now, Philly’s D could keep an ice dragon north of Westeros, sitting at or near the top of every critical macro stat on the season:

• 17.6 Points Allowed Per Game: T-1st

• 276.5 Yards Per Game: 1st

• 4.7 Yards Per Play: 1st

• 26.1 Average Drive Distance: 1st 

• 32.4% Scoring Drive Success: 4th

• 2.6 Snaps Per Splash Play: T-2nd

• 9.0% Sack Rate: T-4th

Philadelphia’s tied in wins with the Lions, whose injury report could field an entire quality unit right now. The Eagles do trail Detroit by a game in conference record (second tiebreaker), but there’s a tremendous disparity in rest-of-season strength-of-schedule from here on out. Combine that with sheer roster health and I think the Eagles are the new favorite Monday if they defeat the Commanders in the Nation’s Capital. 

Combined Opponents’ Record Rest Of Season:

MIN—30-12 (at SEA, vs GB, at DET)

DET—22-20 (at CHI, at SF, vs MIN)

PHI—17-25 (at WAS, vs DAL, vs NYG)

No Cap🏈🏆—The Bucs Don’t Stop Here

THE BETS: Tampa Bay Buccaneers To Win NFC Conference (+1600) And To Win Super Bowl (+4000) MGM

Bosses asked me to get weird with this last one. Say no more—your wish is my command. Hitting on futures this late in the season comes down to pricing. Where’s the potential value the public hasn’t caught onto yet?

For the entire month since their Week 11 bye, I’ve been summarily obsessed with the Buccaneers. Watching a metric ton more football than any normal human should, it’s actually adaptive schematics and aggression on defense that draw me in like moths to the flame. 

I know, I know. Defense and the Buccaneers in the same sentence sounds odd—especially after a disastrous five-game stretch in October in which they allowed +33 points and nearly 430 total yards/game. TB couldn’t stop a snowman in a sauna, I get it. Well, the NFL season is still a marathon, not a sprint. Sometimes absence makes the heart grow fonder. 

That bye I alluded to before couldn’t have come at a better time. Like the mighty Phoenix, Baker Mayfield’s boys ascended from the ashes to win four straight—and look like a legitimate contender in the process. Not one to rest on his laurels, Todd Bowles went right in his bag to reconfigure their pressure packages, evident in an elevated blitz rate (image below).

Just on its face, the laundry list of elite results across phases over the past month becomes hard to argue:

• 15.0 Points Allowed Per Game: 1st

• 276.0 Yards Allowed Per Game: 3rd

• 4.7 Yards Allowed Per Play: T-2nd

• +0.15 EPA/Play: T-2nd

• 25.2 Average Drive Distance: 2nd

• 26.7% Scoring Drive Success: 1st

• 3.6 Yards Per Rush: 3rd

• 3.9% Explosive Rush Rate: 2nd

• 36.4% Blitz Rate: 1st

• 44.6% Pressure Rate: 1st

• 80.2 Opposer Passer Rating: 2nd

• 9.6 Yards Per Reception: 2nd

• 3 Passing TD: 2nd

If I succeeded in making a compelling case for the defense, suddenly Tampa’s listed prices look like an insane value. Remember, you need not even squint to see how well the Bucs have played on offense this season—they’re top-5 in scoring (28.8), yardage (388.4), and success rate (50.5%). Bust out the microscope if you’d like on last month’s spreadsheet, but I warn you. You’ll need sunglasses. Tampa Bay is No. 1 in both point and net-yard differential since that fateful bye week. The public has been slow on this transformation, but not us…

Yes, it’s a longshot but also one that’s going to be a ton of fun to root for.

NOTE: Betting’s fun and potentially very profitable but must be done responsibly at all times. In longshot cases like this, I recommend only betting 10% or one-tenth of whatever your standard betting unit is (0.10u).

Where Are The Sharps Leaning For TNF?

• By Mike Mutnansky

• Source: Sharp Hunter

It’s a great time to be a football fan. 

The College Football Playoff starts Friday and continues Saturday. 

We get two Saturday NFL games this weekend. 

Plus, the usual Sunday slate, Sunday prime time and Monday Night Football. 

Oh, and then a Christmas NFL tripleheader. 

So. Much. Football. 

But before any of that, we have an important game on Thursday Night Football, as far as the AFC Playoff picture goes. The 8-6 LA Chargers host the 9-5 Denver Broncos in a game that might decide the playoff fate of both teams. 

If you’re planning on betting ANY of these games, you need to check out Sharp Hunter, where we’re tracking thousands of sharp bets every day to show you where all the sharp money is going. And not just in the NFL—but the NBA, CBB, and CFB, too. 

As of Wednesday night, the Chargers are mostly a 2.5-point favorite—but you can get the Broncos +3 (-120) in a few spots. The total is a consensus of 42 with a few 42.5s out there. 

We’re showing a Two-Bag Sharp Score on the Chargers -2.5, meaning our sharps are playing LA here. 

I will not be betting with the sharps on Thursday night. 

These appear to be two teams going in different directions. 

Since Week 10, the Denver defense has been No. 1 in the NFL in EPA/play. Denver CB Patrick Surtain has had a terrific season. On the other side, Chargers’ QB Justin Herbert struggled against the Bucs on Sunday and appeared to be banged up late in that game. He will not have Will Dissly for this game, as he is OUT. The short week will not help Herbert here, especially if those injuries linger from Sunday. 

In the same period (since Week 10), the Chargers’ D checks in No. 25 in EPA/play. They have fallen off over the last month. That unit has some injuries and showed last week that it can be attacked in the passing game. This looks like a good spot for Courtland Sutton after Mike Evans erupted against LA last week. 

Couple of trends in your favor if you’re betting Denver—since 2019, home teams are 46-57-1 ATS on Thursdays. And Sean Payton has had success in his career on short rest—24-18-1 ATS. 

We’ll need a bounceback from rookie Bo Nix, but the Broncos are trending up while the Chargers are not only banged up, but appear to be trending down as we get closer to Christmas. 

I’ve been with the sharps at Sharp Hunter much of the NFL season—and the sharps are betting LA here. 

I can’t do it. Denver plus the points for me to kick off Week 16 in the NFL. 

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