Hot takes 🔥 , hotter takes 🔥🔥🔥, and the latest NFL rumors …

🔮 Ashton Jeanty or Jahmyr Gibbs as the RB3 in the first round? Our fantasy mock draft has that and more answers.

🔥 Who’s the favorite for the 2025 Heisman Trophy voting?

🤔 Projecting Rookie WR workloads. Who gets more targets between Tetairoa McMilland and Travis Hunter?

How do you feel about some NFL trivia? Answer to No. 5 is fantasy deity.

🥇The Rookie RB Super Model got a refresh, with landing spots and final grades.

🏈🔮Look Into My Crystal Ball—Won’t You Be My Nabers? 🔮🏈

THE BET: Malik Nabers Over 7.5 Touchdowns (+100) DK

There’s a few ways to skin this analytical cat, and all roads lead to cashing the over …

Let’s begin with the player himself, who entered the league last season with the size (6-foot, 200 pounds), draft capital (6th overall pick), and physical traits (4.40 40-yard dash, 10.2 Catch Radius, 136 Burst Score) to succeed instantly at the highest level. Now we get an offseason of preparation with a year’s worth of experience at game speed, and expectations are only one extra score in a sophomore campaign? 

Let me say outright I’m not buying the regression narrative based on the usage metrics alone. Of the 35 WRs to earn 100+ targets in 2024, Nabers’ numbers jump off the page, covering every angle for another massive output (again, with zero prior experience).

• 11.3 Targets Per Game: 1st

• 36.7 Routes Per Game: 8th

• 30.9% Target Per Route: 2nd

• 1,204 Receiving Yards: 7th

• 107.3 Air Yards Per Game: 2nd

• 41.6% Team Air Yard Share: 4th

• 31 Deep Targets: 4th

Just in case you thought Nabers’ hyper-utilization in 2024 bordered on anomalous, you’d be 100% right. In fact, I clawed backward two full decades into the Trumedia archives trying to find similar rookie wideout usage—and the results? Kinda crazy …

• Rookie WRs to earn 125 targets: 13

• Rookie WRs to earn 130 targets: 9

• Rookie WRs to earn 140 targets: 5

• Rookie WRs to earn 160 targets: 2

• Rookie WRs to earn 170 targets: 1 … Malik Nabers

Generally, a change under center could, would, and should warrant some concern, but given last season’s state of quarterback affairs for Big Blue, there’s only one direction left to go. Don’t get me wrong, I’m not necessarily jumping on the Garden State Parkway to go buy Russell Wilson, Jameis Winston, or Jaxson Dart merchandise—but let’s be honest with ourselves and each other. 

How could it possibly get any worse than the Motley Crew of Daniel Jones, Drew Lock, Tommy DeVito, and Tim Boyle—who collectively finished bottom-5 across the board in every critical passsing stat: Completion Rate (61.9%), EPA/Attempt (+0.01), Passing Yards/Game (189.9), Yards/Attempt (6.0), Air Yards/Attempt (6.8), and +20-Yard Completions (34), all while finishing dead last in Touchdowns (15). 

With talent, utilization, and quarterbacking (hopefully) covered, getting an alpha wideout to 8 touchdowns should be easy, depending on red-zone gameplanning. You guessed it! Nabers was heavily involved inside the red zone, earning one-third of all the Giants’ targets, most importantly in a variety of ways, displayed in the route concept chart below. Inside and outside routes with fades and hitches from either hashmark, including slot work on both sides.

New York’s current win total sits at just 5.5 games, so books and the market alike expect plenty of negative game scripts—a perfect recipe for garbage-time touchdowns.

⚾🏆MLB Futures—Beast Of The East: Let’s Go, Mets Go!🏆⚾

THE BET: New York Mets Most Regular-Season Wins (+650)

As we fly past the quarterway mark of the marathon MLB season, some dust’s settling as team expectations become clearer. There’s still a long way to go, I get it. While there are still a dozen teams or so mathematically in the hunt for this milestone, it’s probably more like six or fewer with the inter-phase firepower to get the job done. 

Most of the other teams in a position to make a run at best record are already presenting rather obvious points of failure. Whether it’s the offense (Royals, Giants), the starting rotation (Guardians, Cubs, Cardinals), or the bullpen (Athletics, Diamondbacks, Phillies, Brewers), these teams have warts I expect to exacerbate as samples widen.

That said, I’d like to focus on the blue-and-white elephant in the room for weaknesses as the heaviest favorite. Despite the (27-14) Dodgers boasting MLB’s highest win total to date as predicted, books pricing them at (-500) for the best record—or an +83% implied probability, seems crazy to me given the circumstances.

I’ll concede there’s no other way to frame it—Los Angeles’ offense rocks, currently top-3 in batting average, OPS, wOBA, runs scored, and wRC+. However, the NL West’s playing much better than expected, and bad pitching-related injury news continues to pile up for LAD. Tyler Glasnow and two-time Cy Young winner Blake Snell are on the shelf with shoulder inflammation. Now, another setback arose for the dominant southpaw, and he’s on his way to see Dr. Neal ElAttrache—never a good sign. Not to be overly negative, but it’s becoming more likely than not Snell’s season is toast. Bottom line is this—when dealing with futures, trajectory matters more than current W/L, and there’s cause for concern in Hollywood.

Nevertheless, one team in the hunt is just a game behind the Dodgers, checking all the inter-phase boxes, and is currently listed at (+650), or a ~13% implied probability for success. It’s not like the Mets play in a small market and not getting any attention, but they sure seem mispriced given their current leaguewide rankings. 

NYM Starting Rotation:

• 2.93 ERA: 1st

• 3.62 SIERA: 6th

• 372 Strikeouts: 4th

• 15.4% K-BB: 6th

• 45.9% Groundball Rate: 3rd

• 7.0% Barrel: 2nd

• 0.62 HR/9: 1st

NYM Team Offense:

• .334 On-Base Percentage: 5th

• .435 Slugging Percentage: 5th

• 19.8% Strikeout Rate: 4th

• 9.7% Swinging Strike: T-4th

• 45.4% Hard-Hit Rate: 2nd

• 90.3 Average Exit Velocity: 3rd

• 105 Barrels: T-5th

• .337 wOBA: 4th

• .355 xwOBA: 2nd

• 118 wRC+: 4th

NYM Bullpen:

• 3.16 ERA: 6th

• 3.38 SIERA: 6th

• 16.1% K-BB: T-6th

• 1.18 WHIP 7th

• 157 Strikeouts: T-4th

• 0.70 HR/9: 5th

That’s how you do it. If the answer to this problem lies with team balance and consistency, there isn’t a better value on the board than NYM. The Mets do it all, and unlike their Californian counterparts have multiple quality starting pitchers on the mend set to return on the horizon (Sean Manaea, Frankie Montas, Christian Scott)—Not to mention a very rich and aggressive Uncle Steve willing to go in his oversized pocketbook to plug any holes that may manifest before the break. 

New York could have the best record in the bigs by the next time we meet—and a much shorter price to go with it.

🧮⚾Betting Research Center—MLBMA Algo™ Data⚾🧮

Today’s SP Sheet

For anyone still interested in daily MLB betting on a more granular level, hit me up anytime on X @JohnLaghezza. I provide my world-famous starting pitching sheets and MLB Moving Averages Algorithm results seven days a week to the betting public.

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