🥶 The Oilers Have Gone Cold

A Game 2 resurrection would befit a team whose captain is nicknamed “McJesus.”

In today’s Betting Life newsletter presented by BetMGM.

If you’ve never heard or seen former FS1 and current TSN broadcaster Jay Onrait’s bit on Panthers goalie Sergei Bobrovsky you should. It’s hilarious; even though most of the time, it’s just him shouting “BO-BROV-SKY!”.

Bobrovsky’s name may be fun, but right now he’s no laughing matter if you’re the Oilers. The 35-year-old stopped all 32 shots he faced in Game 1 of the Stanley Cup Finals and has a .952 SV% over his last four games. In Game 1, he also posted a whopping 5.61 goals saved above-expected mark. 

The good news for the Oilers is that outside of Bobrovsky’s otherworldly performance, Edmonton outplayed Florida in most areas. They recorded 13 High Danger Scoring Chances to the Panthers’ six and dominated the game at even strength, recording a 62.16 xGF% when the teams were at 5v5. The issue for Edmonton now is being able to repeat that dominance and finding a way to beat Bobrovsky — who has only gotten stronger as the playoffs have gone on.

I’ve broken down a couple of different angles for how to play Game 2 below, including an Oilers’ goal prop that plays on the idea that we’ll likely see a little positive regression from their shooters.

🏒 Leon Draisaitl Anytime Goal Scorer (+185; FanDuel)

The Oilers center has slowed down from his torrid opening pace to these playoffs and comes in with just one goal over his last six games. His shot volume in Round 3 was concerning, but he attempted six shots in Game 1 against Florida and landed four on the net, both milestones he failed to reach in any game against the Stars.

We also saw Draisaitl play alongside Connor McDavid for larger portions of Game 1, and while the two may not start Game 2 together, the willingness of head coach Chris Knoblauch to combine the two is there. We can debate whether or not this is the best move for the Oilers in the long run, but any extra time spent on McDavid’s wing at even strength will certainly add to Draisaitl’s upside.

We’ve seen the German go off as low as +110 in this market recently so the move up to +185 certainly feels like a decent spot to buy in. Draisaitl has been crucial to Edmonton’s success all playoffs, and if you do like the Oilers to bounce back tonight, playing for a Draisaitl goal is another way to bet on that outcome.

💧 Edmonton Oilers over 0.5 Goals - First Period (-125; BetMGM)

The Oilers are an offensive dynamo that had plenty of great opportunities to score in Game 1, including a called-back goal (that likely should have counted). Via Moneypuck.com, four of their players posted expected goal rates above 0.80, and as mentioned above, they vastly out-chanced the Panthers in quality scoring opportunities.

I’m not expecting Edmonton to score off the opening faceoff, but I’m also not expecting this goalless drought to last much longer. The Oilers have been down a game multiple times in these playoffs and have bounced back with wins in both cases — that included them scoring at least one goal in the first period. The -125 available on Over 0.5 first-period goals (for Edmonton) on BetMGM also offers a significant discount over other shops, which have this bet as low as -140.

🏆 Game Two of the Stanley Cup Finals

Who will hoist Lord Stanley for the first time? McDavid or The Panthers?

The Stanley Cup Finals are here! Reveal your championship DNA with BetMGM! Can the Oilers square the series, or will the Panthers take a commanding series lead? The Stanley Cup glory is within your reach through BetMGM!

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🏈 Can Wilson and Fields coexist? Ian Hartitz’s Steelers season preview is live.

🐅 It’s US Open week and Tiger Woods is already on site and prepping. He’ll go after major championship number 16 this week.

🏆 It has not been boring to be Scottie Scheffler of late. Another win this weekend at the Memorial added to the excitement.

👨‍🎨 Hang it in the Louvre. This save by Sergei Bobrovsky in Game 1 was a work of art.

🍀 The Celtics took a 2-0 series lead Sunday night. And they hardly needed their A-game to secure the win.

🤔 Despite the Mavericks’ second loss in a row, they do enter Game 3 as small favorites. Will the public ride with Dallas?

🫣 Avert your eyes, Marlins fans. It’s not been a fun year to bet Miami on the diamond.

The start of a new week means the start of a bunch of new baseball series. We have seven games to choose from on Monday, and Matt LaMarca breaks down one of his favorite options.

🐊 Tampa Bay Rays ML vs. Baltimore Orioles (+120; DraftKings)

Ryan Pepiot was the centerpiece of the trade that sent Tyler Glasnow to the Dodgers, and he has the potential to be one of the best pitchers in baseball in the near future. He has five offerings that grade out as above average in Stuff+, and he ranks ninth in Stuff+ since returning from an injury on May 22. Ultimately, Pepiot’s 2.88 xERA is more than a full run lower than his actual mark (3.96).

He’ll be opposed by Corbin Burnes, who is also an outstanding pitcher in his own right. Burnes has a 2.75 xERA, and his Statcast and strikeout metrics are all elite. This sets up as a world-class pitcher’s duel.

The Orioles have been the significantly better offense this season, but the Rays have underperformed expectations by a wide margin. They were one of the best teams in baseball against right-handers in 2023, so they could find themselves as the season progresses. With the Rays also having the benefit of home-field advantage, +120 feels a bit too thin.

The sharps seem to agree, with the pros driving this number down from +144 at opening to +120 currently. I’d lock in that number while you still can.