Not All Points Are Created Equal

A Week 1 Smash?

September 02, 2024

Sept. 2, 2024

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Not all points are created equal: With less than a week until kickoff, all the average Joes start paying serious attention to Week 1 prices. Betting general NFL line markets ranks among the toughest in the world, bordering on impossible—and any minuscule edge warrants attention.

Sorry to shamelessly self-promote, it happens. In a trademark “that’s so stupid it’s smart” moment, I stumbled on a useful idea that led to a simple standard practice for bettors of any experience level. Long story short—not all points are priced equally against the spread.

John Laghezza

We witness this phenomenon weekly on NFL betting boards—two games with identical spreads yet different moneylines. Therefore, a value calculation is often ignored by most, if not all, bettors. You’ll immediately notice directionally once you do the legwork—as the spread increases, so will the dollar offer for each point. 

However, it’s not standardized. And believe it or not, I’m often steered away from laying low points in favor of the outright win. Boomers may be thinking, how often do games end within two points of each other when field goals are worth three? We all know the “critical numbers.” Well, with new kicking placement and analytically driven fourth-down decisions, the answer might surprise you.

Come on, take a guess—of 272 regular-season NFL games in 2023, how many ended with a score differential of two points or fewer? 

If you guessed 30, or 11% you’d be correct. Higher than you thought, huh? So make sure to do the math and follow me for cost-per-point analysis right here throughout the season at Fantasy Life.

What else is in today’s newsletter?

  • Look Into My Crystal Ball

  • The New York Prop Exchange

  • Watercooler: Our new College Football Betting Model is LIVE!

NFL BETTING

Is Mark Andrews’ Reception Prop An Auto-Smash?

by John Laghezza

If the question is: “Will Mark Andrews (our consensus TE4 in Fantasy Football) smash his Week 1 receiving yard prop?” The answer is yes. OK, have a nice day everyone, and enjoy the holiday.

Kidding aside, sometimes it does feel that easy to bet on a healthy Lamar Jackson/Mark Andrews battery. When Andrews plays, he’s by far and away Jackson’s favorite target, posting what would be elite utilization metrics for a WR1, let alone a TE across three years (did someone say utilization? Don’t forget to check Dwain’s Utilization Report)

  • 31.8 Routes/Game

  • 24.5% Target/Route

  • 7.8 Target/Game

  • 5.4 Receptions/Game

  • 65.5 Receiving Yards/Game

  • 2.05 Yards/Route

Remember, Andrews’ numbers could be even better. He tried to play through an injury sandwich last year, but it’s the meat in the middle (image below) I’m focused on right now. That’s the picture of consistency we’re used to and expect when the duo is riffing.

While Kansas City’s front seven featuring a monster Chris Jones is certainly no pushover, they led the NFL in two-high shell coverage last year … (below):

This, inherently, allows for operation to pass-catchers, particularly tight ends underneath despite a strong LB core.

So why is Andrews’ receiving-yard prop a full 20 yards lower than his three-year average? I’m not sure. In any case, I don’t even think it matters who the opposition is when Andrews is healthy for the Ravens in a big game.

THE BET: Mark Andrews Over 46.5 Receiving Yards (-110) To Win 0.5u

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Yeah, it does.

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Be on the lookout for more betting product launches as we approach Week 1 of the NFL season, too!

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MLB BETTING

The New York Prop Exchange ⚾️🏛️ — Going The Distance

A good rule of thumb is to mitigate risk if you're betting on the A’s, especially amidst a long holiday weekend. I’ll admit, I do love prop bets on guys most normies have never heard of, which brings us to Oakland’s Osvaldo Bido.

Bido began in the bullpen but forced his way into the rotation after a month-long stretch allowing only 1 ER. A bit of a late bloomer being only 105 IP into his career at age 28, but I like what I see. Bido throttled his sinker use as an SP (always a good idea) for more four-seamers, and now the arsenal supports three separate 27%+ whiff offerings.

The surface stats all check out (3.79 ERA, 1.04 WHIP, .557 OPS) but Bido’s ability to change opposing hitters’ eye level that’s led to absurd levels of contact suppression (27% Hard Hit, .267 wxOBAcon) that has made him so effective. The tangible changes helped turn him into a quality start machine since the promotion, going six full innings in four of the last five (below).

On the flip side, the Mariners always present an easy mark for pitching props—over the last 30 days and roughly 1,000 team PA, Seattle’s hitting stats hurt to look at:

  • .207 BA (Last)

  • .657 OPS (27th)

  • 27.4% K (Last)

  • 35.0% Hard-Hit (29th)

THE BET: Osvaldo Bido Over 15.5 Outs (-140) DK, To Win 0.5u.

AROUND THE WATERCOOLER

The latest analysis and insights from our merry band of sports betting nerds:

📝 It’s the last big fantasy football draft day of the year. Make sure you show up prepared.

👀 Our new College Football Betting Model is Live … and so, so beautiful.

✍️ Joining your first survivor tournament? Your keys to success.

🔥 The NFC West could be a powerhouse in 2024. How to best bet the division.

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