What is in today’s newsletter?

1. Geoff Ulrich has two bets on TD leaders for the 2024 season.

2. Matt LaMarca takes you into the weekend with his best bets for Friday’s MLB slate.

3. Rose Namajunas returns to the Octagon for UFC Fight Night. Mark Drumheller has your bets.

Two Bets on 2024 TD Leaders

by Geoff Ulrich

Josh Jacobs Most Rushing TDs (+4000; Caesars)

I’m not the biggest fan of Josh Jacobs, but at the current prices, betting on him in the most rushing TDs market looks like a great way to get some exposure to his upside for 2024. 

The former Raider has posted 12 rushing TDs twice already in his career, and both came as part of Raiders offenses that ranked outside the top 10 in EPA per play and points per game. And let’s be frank, anyone who can score 12 TDs (x2) with the Raiders, is at least decent at his job. 

This year, Jacobs joins Green Bay, a team that ranked fifth in EPA per play last season and was eighth in points per game. Given all of Green Bay’s talent and the fact that Jordan Love started 2023 slower than a Ben Roethlisberger QB scramble, it’s not hard to picture them improving on those numbers. 

That fact alone bodes well for Jacobs’ TD production in 2024, given that each of the last two rushing TD leaders was also an RB attached to a top-10 offense. 

2023 – Raheem Mostert +4000 | Dolphins Offense 4th in EPA/per play | 3rd in points per game

2022 – Jamaal Williams +15000 | Lions Offense 6th in EPA/per play | 5th in points per game

Much like Mostert did last year in Miami, Jacobs may cede some carries to a rookie (third-round pick MarShawn Lloyd) but he’s still very likely to dominate the touches in the red zone. After all, they didn’t give the 26-year-old a 48M, four-contract (12.5M guaranteed) to sit on the bench when the team gets near the goal line. 

Dwain McFarland’s FantasyLife+ projections have Jacobs at 7.2 rushing TDs for the season, which is tied for seventh among RBs, and 2.1 below leaders Derrick Henry and Christian McCaffrey (9.3). That’s not a huge gap, and with Jacobs sitting at +4000 (implied odds of just 2.44%) he’s currently got the 20th largest odds in this market. 

That’s too high for a productive scorer, who is about to step in as the lead short-yardage back on a potential top-five offense in 2024.

Garrett Wilson Most Receiving TDs (+1400; bet365)

Wilson’s 7.6 TD projection is the fifth highest on Fantasy Life (among WRs) but he’s a player I view as having a very clear path to blowing that projection out of the water. 

I don’t want to come off as pro-Nathaniel Hackett (who does), but Wilson does benefit from being in his scheme. The third-year-pro ended last year fourth in overall targets and 10th in red zone targets – a number he managed despite the Jets ranking second last in red zone attempts at 37. 

As the OC of the Green Bay Packers in 2020, Hackett also helped orchestrate Davante Adams’ 18 TD season; the most TDs by a receiver in the NFL since Randy Moss’ historic 23 TD season in 2007. 

From a competition perspective, Wilson also has few concerns. His biggest challengers for targets are 29-year Mike Williams (ACL tear; 5 TDs over the last two seasons) and Malachi Corley (a rookie working with Aaron Rodgers). From a scheme perspective, it’s also bullish for Wilson that the Jets brought back beleaguered OL coach Keith Carter, under whom they ranked 29th in EPA per rush and tied for last in rushing TDs (0.4) per game in 2023. 

Finally, Wilson will also benefit from a monster QB upgrade with future Hall-of-Famer Aaron Rodgers replacing the trio of Zach Wilson, Trevor Siemian, and Tim Boyle (yes, those were the Jets QBs last year). Rodgers may not be a spring chicken anymore but he’s already helped three different WRs lead the league in receiving TDs, with all three instances coming at different stages of his career (James Jones 2012, Jordy Nelson 2016, Davante Adams 2020). 

Given the shaky OL and lack of secondary options, it would not be shocking to see Rodgers audibling to Wilson a ton in the red zone and giving his young WR an inordinate number of short TD opportunities. If he does, the 23-year-old has the pedigree needed to turn those targets into enough scores to pay off these generous odds.

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MLB Bets For Friday, July 12

by Matt LaMarca

New York Yankees ML at Baltimore Orioles (-125; BetMGM)

I’ve been fading the Yankees for a while now, and for the most part, it has worked. They’re 6-17 over their past 23 games and have relinquished the AL East lead to the Orioles. Their lead in the Wild Card is also precarious, so this team is going to need to turn things around over the second half.

Fortunately, they’ll have their ace on the bump on Friday. Gerrit Cole will make his fifth start of the season after missing the early part of the year with an injury. Cole has yet to look like an ace (6.75 ERA; 5.90 xERA), but he won the AL Cy Young Award just last season. He’s going to figure things out eventually, and when he does, he should return to being one of the best pitchers in baseball.

While the Yankees slump has gotten most of the attention, it’s not like the Orioles are playing great, either. Their offense has slipped to 18th in wRC+ vs. right-handers over the past 14 days, and they’re 27th over the past week. This could ultimately be the perfect spot for Cole to get his season on track.

Additionally, the Yankees’ offense has a great matchup vs. Cade Povich. His ERA sits at 6.51 through his first six MLB starts, and he’s posted some of the worst strikeout metrics in baseball. He also ranks in the first percentile in barrel rate, which is not a formula for success when you’re surrendering a lot of contact.

Ultimately, you only get so many opportunities to back a pitcher like Cole at -125. I’m taking advantage.

The latest analysis and insights from our merry band of football nerds:

🥊 Rose Namajunas returns to the Octagon for UFC Fight Night. Best bets for Saturday’s card.

👀 The Gambling Gods are watching over this bettor. Talk about running hot.

🗳️ The 2024 election odds keep getting spicier. The Democratic Party nomination is up in the air.

⛔ This is what conviction looks like. Even a massive payout could not tempt this parlay bettor into cashing out.

🤦 There are bad breaks, and then there is this. Seriously, golf is hard enough as it is. 

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